Florida State vs. Florida Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 13: Can Noles Win Without Travis?

The Florida Gators aim to disrupt the Florida State Seminoles' undefeated season before next week's ACC Championship Game, and we provide our top prediction for the Florida State vs. Florida matchup, relying on the best college football odds from our best college football betting sites.  

Boasting an 11-0 record, including an unblemished 8-0 in the ACC, the Florida State Seminoles positions itself among the six remaining undefeated teams in the country. The team lengthened its winning streak to 16 games with a commanding 58-13 victory over North Alabama last week. Unfortunately, this triumph came at a price, as starting quarterback Jordan Travis sustained a lower leg injury, leading to his season-ending absence.  

Sporting a 5-6 record, including a 3-5 standing in the SEC, the Florida Gators is on the brink of a third consecutive losing season, a circumstance not experienced since 1945-47. The Gators have emerged victorious in three of the previous four matchups between these teams, marking a shift in momentum after Florida State's dominance with five consecutive wins in the rivalry from 2013-17.  

As part of our Week 13 college football predictions, here is our best Florida State vs. Florida prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Florida State vs. Florida prediction: Week 13

Florida State -6.5 (-110 via BetMGM, Caesars, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Florida State was bounced from fourth to fifth in the latest AP poll and is taking on the label as a national championship afterthought following the injury to Travis. There is no doubt that Travis was a transcendent player for the program, ranking second in school history in passing yards and breaking the record for total offense. However, the Seminoles have been forced to play without Travis before, and we would not discredit the chances of them keeping an unblemished record with backup Tate Rodemaker as their signal caller.

Rodemaker completed 13 of 23 passes for 217 yards and two touchdowns last week and produced an 88.7 QBR while leading the Seminoles to 260 of their 455 total yards in a come-from-behind road win at Louisville last year. Meanwhile, the Gators are dealing with quarterback injuries of their own, as starting quarterback Graham Mertz suffered a significant collarbone injury last week. In his place, redshirt freshman Max Brown completed four of five passes and ran for 42 yards on seven carries.

We expect Florida’s passing game to take a significant hit with Brown under center, and the Seminoles now have a few possessions of game film to see how the Gators utilized Brown’s legs in the running game.

This is a three-star play, as the Seminoles should have an edge in the red zone, especially defensively, as they have allowed just 13 touchdowns across 55 plays inside their own 10-yard line. Florida State also allows just 183.5 passing yards per game, and without the threat of Mertz’s arm, it should be able to commit more defenders to stop the run and aid a rush defense that has allowed nearly 140 yards per game on the ground.

We also expect Florida State to dial up pressure and to get the Gators in many third-and-long situations, as it enters the week tied for first in the conference with 32 sacks.

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Florida State vs. Florida best odds

BetMGM, Caesars, bet365 (-110)

While all of our best sports betting apps are in unison with the Seminoles as 6.5-point favorites, bettors who support the favorite will get the best price at BetMGM, Caesars, or bet365. This would become a no-play at -7, so we are making our wagers at any of our best sportsbooks that has Florida State at lower than a touchdown for a price of -110 or better.

We are bucking the trend that the Gators are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against AP top-10 at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.

Florida State vs. Florida odds

Florida State vs. Florida odds analysis

The best sports betting sites reacted much more harshly to the news that Jordan Travis is out for Florida State than Graham Mertz being out for Florida, as the lookahead line for this game was Seminoles -10. FanDuel opened lower than any of its competitors at -5.5, and DraftKings saw its line bounce as low as -5.5 and as high as -7 throughout the week. This game has seen great two-way point-spread action, as 52% of the wagers have been placed on Florida.

There is a one-point range on this game's total, as FanDuel is on the low end at 49.5 (-115 to back the Over), while BetMGM is the only shop offering an O/U of 50.5. Florida enters the game on a seven-game Over streak. FanDuel saw its line plummet from an opening number of 51.5, while BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and bet365 all opened slightly lower at 51 and have come down from there.

Both teams are profitable to the Over this season, as Florida State's O/U record is 7-4, while the Over has cashed in seven of Florida's 10 games.

Florida State vs. Florida game info

• When: Saturday, Nov. 25 at 7:00 p.m. ET
• Where: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
• How to watch: ESPN
• Weather: 71 degrees, 20% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph N

Florida State-Florida prediction made 11/22/2023 at 6:27 a.m. ET.

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