Big Ten Best Bets for Week 12: Our Expert Picks, ATS Predictions & Player Props

My Big Ten best bets for Week 12 look to take advantage of the eight-game conference slate on Saturday with two game picks and two player props.

My picks target one of the Big Ten’s best quarterbacks’ passing touchdown totals and take a flier on a tight end’s +195 anytime touchdown odds, as part of our college football Week 12 predictions.

🏈 Big Ten best bets & expert picks: Week 12

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 12 based on the latest college football odds.

🔮 My best Big Ten predictions this week

⬇️ Wisconsin vs. Indiana Under 44.5 (-118) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Indiana has seen the Over cash in six of its 10 games, and head coach Curt Cignetti is likely not happy about allowing 24 points to Penn State, with backup quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer throwing for a season-high 219 yards.

While the Hoosiers entered last week’s game ranked No. 1 in offensive SP+, EPA/play, and points per drive, they will not need to get into a shootout this week. 

Instead, they can rely on a defense that had ranked third in points per drive and first in havoc created to shut down a Wisconsin offense that has scored 20 total points in its last four games (while being shut out twice).

The Under has cashed in each of Wisconsin’s last seven Big Ten games, and that has me willing to pay up for the -118 price at 54.13% implied odds at DraftKings. The total at DraftKings is a full point higher than the 43.5 on the low end of the market, and a $10 winning wager on the Under cashing would return $8.47 in profits.

🐺 Washington -16.5 vs. Purdue (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Purdue has allowed just two passing touchdowns over the last four weeks, and not even Heisman Trophy odds favorite Julian Sayin could become the first to throw for at least three touchdowns against the Boilermakers last week. But this is a tough situational spot for Purdue, traveling to the northwest after a tough game against the No. 1 team in the country.

Washington has won 18 consecutive games against non-AP-ranked teams at Husky Stadium, while Purdue is 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games against non-ranked teams.

This is a curiously big line, as the Huskies are coming off a 13-10 loss at Wisconsin in a game where they allowed just 48 passing yards (24 of which were by the Badgers' punter). 

But I expect a big bounceback from Washington, led by quarterback Demond Williams Jr., who has an 89.0 total QBR, 9.3 yards per dropback, and 90.2 non-sack rushing yards per game in the team’s six wins.

bet365 is one of our only best college football betting sites charging the standard -110 juice to lay the 16.5 points with the favorites. If Washington covers, I would net $9.09 in profits on my winning $10 wager.

💰 My best Big Ten player props this week

⬇️ Jayden Maiava player prop: Under 1.5 passing TDs (-113) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Jayden Maiava is the signal caller for the USC offense that leads the country in SP+. But he has been trending downwards as the competition has picked up.

Maiava has thrown six interceptions in his last five games and went a combined 31-for-65 passing with three interceptions against Notre Dame and Nebraska. 

Maiava got right with a two-touchdown performance against Northwestern last week. But this Hawkeyes defense is much more stout, ranking sixth in defensive SP+ and fifth in scoring defense, with no touchdown passes allowed for four straight weeks.

I'm backing Maiava to throw for one or fewer touchdowns at Caesars, whose market-best -113 odds to back the Under would net $8.85 in profits on a winning $10 wager.

🔥 Max Klare player prop: Anytime TD scorer (+195) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Ohio State head coach Ryan Day felt tight end Max Klare played his best game of the season last week at Purdue. It is only a matter of time before Klare takes advantage of his increased usage in the passing game to record his second touchdown of the season.

After totaling just six receptions through the first four games, Klare has five catches in three of the last five. He has also flashed some big-play ability, with three explosive catches of 20-plus yards coming in that span.

It helps Klare’s case that he has Julian Sayin passing him the ball. Sayin leads all quarterbacks in total QBR, completion rate, and success rate. 

FanDuel’s +195 odds return the best value for this anytime touchdown scorer play. If Klare scores a touchdown, bettors would net $19.50 in profits for every $10 wagered.