College Football Betting Trends to Know for Week 3: Where History Leans in 5 Prominent Matchups

From a 15-game winning streak in college football’s oldest non-conference rivalry to a three-year head-to-head average margin of victory of over 36 points, there are plenty of quality betting nuggets to be mined from the Week 3 slate. Here are the Week 3 trends to know in college football.

In Week 2, three teams that were ranked in the top 10 of the AP Poll lost outright. Now in Week 3, the seven top-10 schools that are in action are favored by an average of 30 points! After last Saturday’s slate was filled with upsets, it appears there will be a greater semblance of normalcy this weekend. 

Although there may not be as many upsets in the cards, there are once again several games that come with compelling college football betting trends. As always, placing bets solely based on trends is dangerous. However, some of the trends specific to Week 3 matchups can help jump-start a more thorough handicapping experience. 

Here are our top five college football betting trends to know for Week 3 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook).

Top College Football Betting Trends for Week 3

Cincinnati vs. Miami (Ohio)

Cincinnati has won 15 straight against Miami (Ohio) and is also on a 4-0 ATS streak in this head-to-head series.

This trend tells bettors all they need to know about the recent history in this series. The Bearcats have thoroughly dominated their in-state foes from the MAC for nearly two decades.

Cincinnati will look to extend its current winning streak over Miami (Ohio) to 16 on Saturday afternoon. The Bearcats are priced as a 22-point favorite for the 126th edition of the Victory Bell rivalry game. That may seem like a hefty spread to lay, but Cincy has also covered four straight meetings in this series.

From 2014 to 2017, the Redhawks were able to keep the final margin within a touchdown despite losing each time. However, as the Bearcats have risen to national prominence in recent years under head coach Luke Fickell, the gap between the two schools has been widening. Cincinnati has won the last three meetings by 21, 22, and 35 points, respectively. Miami (Ohio) is without starting quarterback Brett Gabbert due to an injury, so another lopsided affair could be coming on Saturday.

When it comes to historical trends, it’s tough to top what the Victory Bell offers. Although the Bearcats have dominated the rivalry in recent years, the all-time series is deadlocked at 59 wins apiece coming into Saturday’s showdown. Cincinnati and Miami (Ohio) have also tied seven times in a series that dates back to 1888, making it college football’s oldest non-conference rivalry. To top it all off, the very first meeting ended in a 0-0 draw.

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Georgia vs. South Carolina

Road teams are a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six head-to-head meetings between Georgia and South Carolina.

Now we head to SEC country. The defending national champion Georgia Bulldogs will do battle with an improved South Carolina team on Saturday afternoon. History in this series suggests Georgia is well-positioned to cover despite laying a massive spread of 25.5 points.

Road teams have covered the spread in each of the last six meetings between Georgia and South Carolina. Those covers have occured regardess of whether the visiting team was favored or catching points. Given the recent status of these two programs, it should surprise no one that the Bulldogs have been favored in all six of the recent matchups. 

Oddly enough, Georgia has been much better at dominating South Carolina on the road than in Athens between the hedges. Reduced spreads on the road haven’t exactly been a major factor in this betting trend either. After all, Georgia covered in Columbia as a 22-point road favorite two years ago. That 45-16 walloping was just one year after Carolina shocked the ‘Dawgs in Athens. The Gamecocks earned an upset win in double overtime as a 21-point underdog.

Of course, last year’s Georgia team went on to win the national championship. Then five of the team's defensive players were taken in the first round of the NFL draft. Despite all of the success, Kirby Smart’s team failed to cover against South Carolina in 2021 as a 31-point home favorite. 

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Penn State vs. Auburn

The Under is 10-0 in Auburn’s last 10 games when facing a team that comes in while outscoring opponents by more than 10 points per game.

These two teams collided in Happy Valley in 2021. The Nittany Lions survived a highly competitive affair and are a short road favorite for Saturday’s rematch.

Compared to the rest of their SEC West Division cohorts, Auburn is still considerably off the pace during Bryan Harsin’s second season as the head coach. However, the Tigers often step up defensively when facing quality opponents. The Under has hit in each of Auburn’s last 10 games against teams that come in outsourcing their opponents by more than 10 points per game.

In 2021, the betting total closed at 53 for the game between these teams, and the contest featured 48 points. The Nittany Lions once again meet the criteria in 2022 after routing Ohio last weekend. 

The Tigers' greatest advantage on Saturday may be between the trenches. Given the suspect nature of Auburn’s passing attack and Penn State being weaker defending the run than the pass, Harsin’s game plan will surely focus on taking the air out of the ball through running. If that game script unfolds, this betting trend will likely continue.

Troy vs. Appalachian State

Appalachian State is 3-0 both straight up and against the spread with an average margin of victory of 36.7 points during its last three meetings against Troy.

Following an outright upset of No. 6 Texas A&M last weekend, Appalachian State is set to open up Sun Belt Conference play on Saturday afternoon against Troy. By beating Texas A&M, the Mountaineers also effectively stole an ESPN College Gameday show that was undoubtedly headed to College Station for the Aggies’ showdown against Miami. Talk about a double whammy!

On the surface, one could argue that Appalachian State might be due for a letdown in Week 3 after shocking the college football world. However, history suggests the current point spread of Appalachian State -12.5 isn't nearly large enough. 

Not only have the Mountaineers beaten Troy straight up in the last three meetings, but they covered the spread in all three of those games too. Appalachian State’s average margin of victory in those contests was an astounding 36.7 points.

The Mountaineers were never favored by more than 13 points in any of those matchups against Troy. The spread was only nine points in 2021, but Appalachian State still proceeded to dismantle the Trojans 45-7. 

It will be vital for Shawn Clark’s team to refocus after the Week 2 upset. Troy may be less talented, but nine starters returning makes for an experienced group.

Michigan State vs. Washington

Michigan State is 5-0 ATS in its last five road/neutral site games against non-conference opponents.

Bragging rights between the Big Ten and Pac-12 conferences will be on the line in the Pacific northwest Saturday night when Michigan State battles Washington. There's a smell to this matchup. Despite the Spartans being ranked No. 11 in the latest AP Poll, unranked Washington is currently a 3.5-point favorite at BetMGM Sportsbook.

The betting odds are practically telling us which side to play. While Michigan State may be the underdog, recent history favors the Spartans in this spot. MSU enters the weekend after covering the spread in five straight road or neutral site games against non-conference opponents.

This trend extends all the way back to Week 2 of the 2018 season. Mel Tucker was still two years away from being hired as Mark Dantonio’s successor in East Lansing.

However, the two most recent games in this impressive ATS trend took place in 2021. The most impressive result of the trend was undoubtedly when Michigan State went on the road to Miami as a six-point underdog early in 2021 and emerged with a 21-point victory.

Can the Spartans prove the doubters wrong once again and continue their run of success in Seattle against the Huskies?

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