Ball State vs. Northern Illinois Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 11: NIU to Struggle as Home Favorite?

Check out our Ball State vs. Northern Illinois prediction for their Week 11 college football matchup based on the best NCAAF odds.

Mike Spector

Last updated: November 7, 2023 5:45 PM EST • 5 min read

The Ball State Cardinals travel to play the Northern Illinois Huskies in the kickoff to a Tuesday night MAC tripleheader, and we offer our best Ball State-Northern Illinois prediction based on the best college football odds.

Ball State, with a 2-7 record, has faced significant struggles lately, losing five of their last six games, including a 24-21 defeat to the Bowling Green Falcons. Their road performances have been particularly troublesome, with zero wins and a discouraging minus-107 point differential in five away games. The struggles extend to their offense, as they've scored only 85 points in their five MAC games, highlighting their ongoing challenges on the field.

After suffering its second conference loss, Northern Illinois (4-5, 3-2 MAC) is effectively eliminated from contention for the MAC West division title, as its first MAC defeat came against the division-leading Toledo Rockets in Week 5. This season has been a disappointment for the Huskies, a team that has participated in the most MAC Championship Games (nine) and is tied for the most wins (five). Northern Illinois rebounded from a four-game losing streak with a three-game winning streak (accumulating a combined 58-point lead) before succumbing to a 37-31 loss to Central Michigan last week.

As part of our Week 11 college football predictions, here is our best Ball State vs. Northern Illinois prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Ball State vs. Northern Illinois prediction: Week 11

Ball State +10.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

The lookahead line for this game was Northern Illinois -8.5, and given that Ball State turned in its best road performance of the season last week, albeit in a three-point loss, we do not agree with the line movement through the key number of 10.

Northern Illinois faced a Central Michigan team that had been averaging just 18.3 points per game in their four MAC games before last week, but the Huskies were torched for 37 points and 447 total yards in what were not ideal weather conditions.

The Huskies did what they had to do offensively against Central Michigan, tallying 506 total yards against a Chippewas defense that had ranked 110th or worse in Quality Drives allowed, Finishing Drives, Rush Success, Pass Success, and Havoc. That was a massive improvement for an offense that entered the week ranked outside the top 80 in Success Rate, 94th in Explosiveness, and 115th in Points Per Opportunity. However, Ball State has the perfect foil to prevent Northern Illinois from generating any offensive momentum, as running back Marquez Cooper and the legs of quarterback Kiael Kelly can control the tempo and sustain long drives when they are at their best.

Cooper and Kelly combined for 180 of the Cardinals’ 217 rushing yards last week, and they possessed the ball for over 33 minutes as a result. Cooper has gone for 100 yards 15 times in his career, and given Ball State’s penchant for running the football, they must stay close in this game as they are not built to play from behind. Thankfully, Northern Illinois is not great in the role of favorite, failing to cover all the spread in all three games as home favorites, and is an even worse 0-8 in that role dating back to the start of last season.

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Ball State vs. Northern Illinois best odds

DraftKings (-110)

DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	bet365
+10.5	+10.5	N/A	+10	+10
-110	-115	N/A	-110	-110

Ball State backers should be heavily enticed by the ten points and the hook offered at both DraftKings and FanDuel while our other best sports betting apps, with DraftKings being our go-to shop since it does not charge more in juice to take the points. Both teams are 4-5 ATS this season.

Ball State vs. Northern Illinois odds

Ball State vs. Northern Illinois odds analysis

All line movement at our best sports betting sites has gone in Northern Illinois’ favor to this point. FanDuel increased from an opening number of -10 (-110) to -10.5 (-105), and Caesars went from -9.5 to -10 on Sunday afternoon.

FanDuel is the lone sportsbook offering a total of 43.5, while the other best sportsbooks are a half-point lower at 43. Northern Illinois is the slightly more profitable Over team, cashing the Over in five of its nine games, while Ball State has an O/U record of 4-5.

Ball State vs. Northern Illinois game info

When: Tuesday, Nov. 7 at 7 p.m. ET
Where: Huskie Stadium, DeKalb, IL
How to watch: N/A
Weather: 57 degrees, 9% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph NNE

Ball State-Northern Illinois prediction made 11/6/2023 at 6:08 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”