Arkansas vs. Mississippi State Picks, Predictions College Football Week 6: Bulldogs Face Test
Quarterback KJ Jefferson of Arkansas remains questionable due to an apparent concussion. Check out the best picks for Arkansas-Mississippi State with Cade Fortin possibly drawing the start.
Backup QB Cade Fortin completed just four of 10 pass attempts for 35 yards against Alabama last week and could draw his first start of the year with Jefferson's game status still undecided as of Saturday morning. That could lead to a third straight loss for the Razorbacks as they visit the 4-1 Mississippi State Bulldogs.
Mississippi State has won back-to-back games over Bowling Green and Texas A&M. The win over A&M came by a 42-24 score as a 4-point favorite. The same Aggies team beat a healthier Arkansas side by a 23-21 score on September 24.
Be sure to check out our college football best bets and all of our Week 6 picks.
Here are our Arkansas vs. Mississippi State college football picks for Week 6 (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Arkansas vs. Mississippi State Game Info
Date: Saturday, Oct. 8, noon ET
TV: SEC Network
Location: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Mississippi
Weather: 74 degrees, 7% chance of precipitation, 20-mph winds
Arkansas vs. Mississippi State Odds
Arkansas vs. Mississippi State Analysis
With the injury concerns around Jefferson, the spread has ballooned from Mississippi State -5.5 to -9 as of Saturday morning. Fifty-five percent of the tickets actually support Arkansas with the points but those tickets account for just 30% of the cash on the line.
The Over/Under has dropped from 62.5 to 57.5 with the injury concerns again playing a big part. Fifty-six percent of the tickets are on the Over but 62% of the handle is on the Under.
Arkansas vs. Mississippi State Picks
- Spread: Arkansas +8.5 (-115 via FanDuel Sportsbook) ★
- Over/Under: Under 62.5 (-110 via BetMGM Sportsbook) ★★★
- Prop: Mississippi State First Half -4.5 (-110 via DraftKings Sportsbook) ★★★
Arkansas vs. Mississippi State ATS Pick
Arkansas +8.5 (-115) ★
Picking this game is incredibly hard because of the status of KJ Jefferson. He is dealing with a head injury, but we do not know if he is going to be ready to play or not on Saturday.
If he does play, the Razorbacks are going to win this game outright. The Bulldogs are being rewarded for an easy schedule and their victory over a ranked team that never should have been ranked in Texas A&M.
The Razorbacks lost to the Aggies at home, but everything went wrong in that game. They fumbled the ball on the one-yard line and the Aggies scored a 99-yard fumble recovery touchdown, yet the Razorbacks still had a chance to win at the end. Instead, their kicker missed a field goal.
If Jefferson doesn’t play, then the Bulldogs are the pick. However, they still may struggle to cover more than a touchdown against this team.
Arkansas vs. Mississippi State O/U Pick
Under 62.5 (-110) ★★★
The Bulldogs are averaging 38.2 points per game this season, and they have cleared the 40-point mark on three different occasions. The Razorbacks are allowing 30.6 points per game, but they have held four of their five opponents to 30 points or fewer this year.
Whether Jefferson plays or not, the Razorbacks' offense will likely only score in the 20s in this game. The key will be for the Razorbacks’ secondary to slow down Will Rogers, who has thrown for over 400 yards in two games this season and has nine touchdowns and zero interceptions in his last two games.
It seems Oddsmakers are expecting Jefferson to be out this weekend considering the movement on both the spread and the total. With that in mind, take the Under and expect a game in the mid-50s.
Arkansas vs. Mississippi State Prop Pick
Mississippi State first half -4.5 (-110) ★★★
The Razorbacks are going to have to get used to playing on the road since they have not done it yet this season. If they have to do that with a backup quarterback under center, then this bet suddenly becomes a four, or maybe even five-star bet.
Getting this spread under a touchdown for the first half, when Arkansas is coming off a game against the No. 1 team in the country, seems too good to be true. Even if KJ Jefferson plays, the Bulldogs and Will Rogers should have momentum early, before the Razorbacks settle in and start to make a game of it.
Where to Bet on Arkansas vs. Mississippi State
Arkansas-Mississippi State picks made 10/5/2022 at 8:42 a.m. ET
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