Sportsbook and Prediction Markets Heavily Favor Joshua Over Paul in Tonight's Fight
Jake Paul faces boxing heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua this evening in a high-profile fight that will livestream on Netflix. The odds are heavily in favor of Joshua, but this hasn’t stopped bettors from backing Paul.
A lot of people are interested in this fight because of Paul's fame. However, a check of the odds across several of the best sports betting sites and prediction market apps indicates that the likelihood of Paul, a former social media content creator, emerging as a winner is low, and that a win would be detrimental to boxing.
Joshua enters the bout as a two-time heavyweight world champion and Olympic gold medalist, as evident in the prices offered on bets. On Polymarket, the community has placed almost $7 million on the bout, which places an 87% probability on Joshua winning.
Paul only has an 11% chance, while the remaining percentage is either a tie or no competition. Kalshi's markets reflect the same perception. Around $6 million has been wagered, with Joshua at 85% to win and Paul at 15%.
Traditional sportsbooks, including DraftKings, list Joshua at odds of -1200, while Paul is priced at +600. Additional DraftKings markets favor the fight lasting more than 2.5 rounds, as well as outcomes in which Joshua wins by knockout.
FanDuel pricing also underscores Joshua's position as the clear favorite. The sportsbook lists him at -1200 to win outright (Paul is getting +700), while several prop bets favor Joshua throwing and landing the most punches.
Other FanDuel markets suggest the bout is unlikely to go the distance, indicating widespread expectation of a stoppage rather than a judges' decision.
Lines open on entourages
As the night of the fight draws near, more attention is shifting to the bigger show surrounding the boxing championships, not just the actual fight. Apart from the usual wagering about who will win, there are now betting challenges centered on celebrities associated with the show, especially when the fighters enter the ring.
These additional bets are well-liked by supporters, allowing them to enjoy the entertainment aspects of the evening, aside from the outcome of a boxing match.
Rumors have been circulating about the entrance that Joshua will have and who he might bring out into the ring. KSI, a social media personality and rapper, is one name that keeps popping up. Bettors are placing odds of +200 on the possibility of him being part of Joshua’s group, indicating that fans are optimistic but not certain.
Other names have also surfaced in these markets. American rapper Kodak Black has been listed at +700 to walk out with Joshua, placing him further down the list of expected possibilities. While there has been no confirmation, his inclusion highlights how widely these novelty bets cast their net when major events attract crossover attention from music and entertainment.
On Jake Paul's side, betting markets have similarly focused on potential celebrity appearances. Rapper 50 Cent is priced at +700 to appear alongside Paul.
