Prediction Markets Gain Ground During FIFA World Cup

Prediction markets are surging during the FIFA World Cup, with Kalshi and Polymarket posting strong user growth and challenging sportsbooks.

Charlotte Capewell

Last Updated: June 19, 2026 2:13 PM EDT • 2 minute read

Pictured: A person holds a replica of the FIFA World Cup trophy as we look at prediction markets overtaking sportsbooks during the World Cup. Photo by Ian Robles/ Eyepix Group

Enjoying SBR content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account

Prediction market platforms have shown significant growth in the opening stages of the FIFA World Cup, competing strongly with traditional sportsbook companies, according to a Business Insider investigation.

Data from market research firm Apptopia shows that sites like Kalshi and Polymarket have seen substantial increases in daily active users since the tournament began, continuing a trend that began during the NBA and NHL finals.

App download figures from the first half of June showed prediction market apps taking up a large share of activity in the sports betting sector, and analysts have attributed part of the growth to the different regulatory structures around prediction markets, which let users trade contracts tied to event outcomes instead of making wagers with a sportsbook.

Prediction markets are currently regulated at the federal level and can theoretically operate in any state, giving them a broader reach than the best sports betting sites, which can only offer betting markets in states where sports betting is legal and where they have obtained a license.

The situation is complicated by the fact that several US states are engaged in legal disputes over the regulation of prediction markets, but the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission maintains that it has jurisdiction over event contracts.

So far in June, traditional sportsbook operator DraftKings has reported a year-on-year increase of betting activity of 117%, while rival FanDuel reports a rise of 48%. This has been outpaced by the growth rates of prediction markets, with Kalshi and Polymarket between them accounting for 75% of all sports wagering activity in the first half of June.

World Cup drives competition

Meanwhile, the World Cup, which has been expanded from 32 to 48 teams, is set to become one of the biggest betting events on record.

Analysts have projected that global betting activity around the World Cup could reach $50 billion, up from $35 billion in 2022. That rise may be due to a number of factors, including the expanded format of 104 games, wider access to legal sports betting, and the favorable viewing times for North American fans.

To coincide with the tournament, sportsbook operators such as FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, and theScore Bet have expanded their World Cup platforms, with many increasing the number of betting and live betting markets.

Prediction market operators have followed suit. Kalshi has so far offered hundreds of World Cup-related contracts, while trading volumes across major prediction platforms have continued to rise.

Even sports-data providers, including those that provide official statistics and integrity services, have been boosted by World Cup demand as operators seek additional support with new event contracts and betting markets.

The tournament is set to conclude on July 19 in New York, and that final could prove to be one of the biggest betting events in industry history.

Written by:
Charlotte Capewell

Charlotte’s love for all things iGaming shines through in everything she writes. From sports betting and U.S. legislation to prediction markets and beyond, she blends sharp analysis with storytelling that makes even the most technical topics come alive. Always chasing the next big scoop, Charlotte keeps a close eye on industry news, eager to share her excitement and insights with readers, whether they’re industry veterans or newcomers discovering iGaming for the first time. When she’s not deep in gaming headlines, you’ll probably find her glued to the F1, cheering on her favorite team, Williams, and driver. Her dream? To be trackside at the Las Vegas Grand Prix, notebook in hand, of course.