Popularity of AI Trading Markets Booming on Prediction Platforms
On websites like Kalshi and Polymarket, gamblers now bet millions of dollars per month on forecasts related to the performance and rankings of artificial intelligence (AI). These sites enable individuals to wager on whose AI system will win leaderboard competitions or who will be the next breakthrough, approaching the technological race much like a sport.
The rising media hype surrounding AI has made the best prediction markets a hot spot among speculators and enthusiasts who pore over ranking pages, social media chatter, and product releases to find hints. While none of this data is ever trustworthy, this makes it possible for seasoned speculators to profit at the expense of new players.
Trading volumes in AI-related contracts have increased sharply, according to The Wall Street Journal, with overall activity across prediction markets reaching approximately $20 million this month. Kalshi, currently the only platform legally operating in the US, has reported tenfold growth in AI-focused trades since the beginning of the year.
Each contract is priced in cents and reflects the implied probability of an outcome. Much of the trading takes place before results are known, as participants seek to sell at a profit if odds shift in their favor. This setup mirrors sports betting markets, where bettors can cash out early based on changing conditions.
With increasing volumes, the demand for correct information is gaining pace. Seasoned players are more able to capitalize on trends, while new players are experiencing more strain in a rapidly moving marketplace now frequented by professionals and amateurs.
Polymarket acquires QCEX for US re-entry
The surge in AI-related prediction trading comes as Polymarket recently secured a path back into the US market through the $112 million acquisition of derivatives exchange QCX and its clearinghouse affiliate QC Clearing. Together, known as QCEX, the entities provide Polymarket with a regulated entry point into American financial markets.
QCX, based in Florida, received approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in July 2025 to operate as a designated contract market, ending a licensing process that began in 2022. The purchase allows Polymarket to offer prediction-based trading legally under US oversight, a significant shift after years of restrictions.
Polymarket saw global growth during the 2024 US presidential election, with billions of dollars traded internationally. However, US users were blocked in 2022 after regulators raised compliance concerns. The platform’s re-entry follows the closure of a joint investigation by the Department of Justice and CFTC into its operations, which included a November 2024 raid on the home of founder and CEO Shayne Coplan.
With the investigation formally closed, Coplan confirmed that Polymarket can now move forward. The acquisition of QCEX provides the regulatory framework needed to offer compliant services in the US, setting the stage for American users to rejoin global markets in areas ranging from politics and culture to AI development.
