Pop Culture Wagers Transform Prediction Market Behavior
A rise in wagers tied to pop culture events has shifted how Americans use prediction platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi.
Amateur traders have increasingly turned to high-risk bets on prediction market apps based on movie releases, album anniversaries, and celebrity-related milestones, shifting away from earlier interests in meme stocks and cryptocurrencies.
A small segment of users has captured substantial gains, while many others have absorbed significant losses as entertainment contracts surge in popularity. With more participants viewing real-world cultural outcomes as investable assets, this change has expanded the scope of prediction activity.
As a result, many players now view real-world cultural phenomena as investable assets, expanding the scope of prediction-related activities.
This has led to unprecedented participation in entertainment-related markets, where users bet on the outcome of everything from film releases to music performances and company announcements. Some traders are reported to spend their entire working day analyzing online ratings, streaming data, and social media trends to uncover the most lucrative pricing options.
The appeal often stems from the perceived availability of public information, which pushes people to take trades in ever-fluctuating markets. However, advisers argue that event-driven structures are more akin to gambling than conventional investing.
Such contracts that are not successful in a trader's favor will lapse, meaning that no value retention, as seen in stocks and bonds, will exist.
Studies emerging from prominent banks as well as institutions of higher learning suggest that increased access to online gambling, including prediction markets, contributes to higher levels of consumer debt, lower credit ratings, and increased bankruptcy.
Record-breaking November
The change in user behavior has coincided with a record month for on-chain and centralized prediction markets, which ended November with their best performance to date. As retail participation increased and integration expanded across financial and media platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket recorded new all-time highs for trading volume.
Kalshi's monthly spot volume rose from $4.4 billion in October to $5.8 billion in November, a 32% increase and the company's largest monthly gain on record. Polymarket also hit a new high, with volume rising from $3.02 billion to more than $3.7 billion, a 23.8% month-over-month increase.
The two platforms now account for the majority of global prediction market activity as product features, liquidity channels, and media partnerships expand.
November's surge reinforced reporting on the firms' accelerating duopoly. Kalshi doubled its valuation last month following $1 billion in new funding, reaching an $11 billion market value and strengthening its position in the regulated US market.
Polymarket has likewise scaled its operations after a mid-November CFTC decision cleared the path for its US return. Since that ruling, the company has secured distribution deals with Yahoo Finance and UFC, and expanded its visibility through Google Finance, which has begun displaying Kalshi and Polymarket data directly in search results.
