Polymarket Retakes Lead Over Kalshi Amid Prediction Market Growth
Weekly volume in the prediction markets topped $2 billion as Polymarket again took over as top dog from rival Kalshi, as reported by Dune Analytics. The two platforms have experienced volume growth in user activity despite broader growth in prediction market adoption.
Kalshi, the first federally regulated prediction market in the US, gained significant ground in August, when NFL betting interest was on the rise, and briefly topped Polymarket in combined trading volume. Polymarket, however, regained its position after launching its new US site beta ahead of November's elections.
Sports prediction markets remained dominant last week with $414.7 million in total wagers, while politics accounted for $322.6 million. The industry came close to the $2 billion threshold last November during Donald Trump’s reelection, when Polymarket led with $1.2 billion, Kalshi handled $749 million, and Limitless processed $5.2 million.
Polymarket now leads with $1 billion in weekly volume, followed closely by Kalshi at $950 million. Limitless expanded its activity fourfold to $21.9 million, and Myriad, developed by Dastan, recorded $3.8 million.
Both Polymarket and Kalshi benefited from recent Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) no-action letters, allowing them to serve US users without enforcement risk. However, state regulators have begun challenging their federal designations.
ICE commits $2 billion to Polymarket
Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE), parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, recently announced plans to invest up to $2 billion in Polymarket, valuing the firm at approximately $8 billion. The deal positions ICE as a global distributor of Polymarket’s event-driven data, and signals growing institutional support for blockchain-based prediction markets.
Polymarket’s trading volumes surged during the 2024 US presidential election, when prediction markets drew billions of dollars in bets. Although the company remains partly offshore, it has taken steps toward full regulatory compliance by acquiring derivatives exchange QCX, enabling federally supervised operations.
“By combining ICE’s institutional scale and credibility with Polymarket’s consumer savvy, we will be able to deliver world-class products for the modern investor,” said Polymarket Chief Executive Shayne Coplan.
That purchase followed the conclusion of a federal probe into earlier CFTC violations. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts called ICE’s investment expensive but reflective of increasing confidence in blockchain data markets. ICE shares rose 1.4% in New York trading after the announcement.
“There are opportunities across markets which ICE together with Polymarket can uniquely serve and we are excited about where this investment can take us,”said ICE CEO Jeffrey Sprecher.
Competing platforms such as Kalshi and Crypto.com have also expanded into prediction-based sports betting, while ICE plans to integrate Polymarket’s data into its analytics products for market sentiment tracking.
