MLB Moves into Prediction Markets with Polymarket Deal

MLB has agreed to a multiyear partnership with Polymarket, marking its formal entry into the prediction market sector as leagues continue to explore new wagering-adjacent products. The agreement grants Polymarket exclusive rights to operate as MLB's official prediction market partner, including the use of team branding and intellectual property. Financial terms were not disclosed.  

The agreement puts MLB on the same ground as other leagues, such as the NHL, MLS, and UFC, which have already established relationships with prediction market apps.

Commissioner Rob Manfred had signaled this direction in February, noting that formal partnerships could support oversight and integrity efforts. The league's position has shifted quickly from last Summer, when MLB also warned players that using prediction markets could breach existing gambling rules. That stance has now evolved into controlled participation through an approved operator. 

As part of the Polymarket agreement, certain contract types will be subject to limitations. Those related to in-game decisions, individual pitches, and umpire actions will not be available. 

Similar guardrails have been referenced by other leagues. The NHL has indicated it retains the authority to request the removal of contracts it deems inappropriate, reinforcing the league's control over acceptable offerings. 

In a separate announcement, the MLB has also confirmed it is coordinating with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) through a formal agreement focused on monitoring risks and sharing information tied to game integrity. This is the first time the CFTC has partnered with a major sports league. 

PGA Tour holds position

While the MLB and other leagues move forward, the PGA Tour has taken a more cautious approach. It has opted to observe how prediction markets develop before entering formal agreements.  

PGA Tour VP of Gaming Scott Warfield said earlier this month, citing the legal uncertainty, that the organization views traditional sports betting as an established market but sees prediction markets as still unsettled.  

The situation is further complicated by existing relationships. DraftKings and FanDuel, both official PGA Tour betting partners, have launched their own prediction-market-style platforms. These offerings include contracts tied to golf events, though availability is limited to jurisdictions where standard sports betting is not permitted. 

For now, the PGA Tour remains in a monitoring phase. Warfield said the tour is not pursuing commercial deals tied to prediction markets and is instead focused on understanding the space as it evolves. 

Integrity remains central to that approach. The tour works with external monitoring firms to track suspicious betting activity and has updated its rules to include prediction markets. Players, caddies, staff, and affiliated personnel are prohibited from participating in any wagering activity involving tour events. 

The policy also restricts endorsement deals. Unlike LIV Golf's Bryson DeChambeau, who partnered with Kalshi earlier this year, PGA Tour players cannot currently sign agreements with prediction-market operators.  

Pending legal decisions are expected to determine how the sector develops and whether leagues adopt broader involvement.