Million-Dollar Wager Signals Early Confidence in the Patriots Ahead of Super Bowl 2026
A seven-figure wager at Circa Sports has signaled early confidence in the New England Patriots despite their underdog status in the Super Bowl.
Circa accepted a $1.1 million bet on New England to win the championship outright against the Seattle Seahawks, according to the sportsbook. The wager, placed at +188 odds, could yield a payout of nearly $2.1 million, plus the original stake, if the Patriots defeat the Seahawks. The bet represents one of the largest single Super Bowl wagers to date and reflects growing betting activity as markets opened following the conference championship games.
New England opened as a 3.5-point underdog after Seattle defeated the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship Game. Over the following 48 hours, the spread moved further toward Seattle across most of the best sports betting sites.
Many operators shifted the line to the Seahawks at -4.5, while BetRivers lists Seattle as high as 5.5-point favorites.
The adjustment followed speculation surrounding Patriots quarterback Drake Maye, who appeared limited as a passer during the AFC Championship Game against the Denver Broncos. Maye completed 10 passes in that contest and generated much of his offense on the ground.
Market movement suggested bettors and oddsmakers were reacting to concerns about a potential shoulder issue.
No official injury designation had been announced. If Maye were cleared without limitations, sportsbooks could revisit their pricing closer to kickoff. Early sharp action, including the Circa wager, indicated some bettors were willing to challenge the prevailing narrative despite the shifting spread.
Kalshi users favor Seahawks
While traditional sportsbooks adjusted point spreads, prediction market apps also reacted quickly to the finalized matchup. After Sunday's conference championship games, Kalshi updated its Super Bowl market, assigning the championship favorites, the Seattle Seahawks, a 68% implied probability of defeating the New England Patriots. The Patriots taking the win, however, is trading at 33 cents.
The matchup marks a rematch of the 2015 championship, when New England defeated Seattle 28-24 in a game decided late by a goal-line interception. That result remained a reference point as markets evaluated the current rosters.
Earlier in the season, Kalshi markets implied roughly a 1% chance that New England would reach the Super Bowl. The Patriots advanced behind a defense that allowed 18.8 points per game and limited opponents to 101.7 rushing yards per contest. Maye posted a 77.1 QBR during the regular season as one of the youngest quarterbacks to begin a championship game at the age of 23.
Seattle entered as the NFC's top seed and relied on a similarly defensive profile. The Seahawks allowed a league-low 17.2 points per game, held opponents to 91.9 rushing yards per game, and averaged 28.4 points on offense behind quarterback Sam Darnold.
