March Madness Meets Market Madness: Betting vs. Prediction Markets on the Ground

Back in the days, when I was a student at the University of Maryland in the mid ‘90s, March Madness wasn’t just another calendar month. It was a parallel universe.  

As a Division I team, the Maryland Terrapins were huge in college basketball, and everything was on the line for us. March Madness took over the entire rhythm of campus life. Classes emptied out early during game time; people were sitting on the campus lawns with radios, listening to the score, and the public TVs in the Student Union became makeshift screening areas, packed with students watching the Terps battle their way through the brackets.  

The campus used to fill up with photocopied bracket sheets and hand-scribbled odds and bets. Nothing official, and no big money changing hands, just pizza money, beer budget, pride, and bragging rights on the line.   

When I graduated and entered the work world, the March Madness atmosphere didn’t go away; only the backdrop changed. From student dorms to corporate offices, from the student union to the office cafeteria, bracket sheets circulated, bets were placed, and alliances and rivalries formed around victories, losses, and upsets.  

Be it in the office, on campus, at a family barbecue, or a poker night with friends, March Madness was never just about basketball – it’s about being part of something collective, where every possession by your team means something to your soul. And even if it’s small amounts, backing your team with a bet adds a whole new dimension of madness to March (both the month and the tournament).   

From office pools to market prices  

Betting on the tournament used to be done mostly through friendly wagers in office pools, until 2018, when sports betting was legalized outside of Nevada and began spreading across US states. Then, the emergence of crypto-based platforms in the 2020’s gave rise to the now-popular sports-event contracts, which allow users to purchase contracts that predict sports-event outcomes (typically offering ‘yes’ or ‘no’ shares priced between $0 and $1).  

The price directly represents the market’s implied probability of the outcome. So, being part of something bigger during March Madness recently took on a whole new meaning.  

Beyond prices being set by the market rather than odds set by one of the best sports betting sites, there are other key differences between traditional sports betting and prediction market apps. Namely, that the former is regulated by local jurisdictions (state or tribe), and the latter by a federal agency (the CFTC).  

March Madness sportsbook road trip 

Like many, I have accounts on prediction market platforms, and among my many sins, I’m also holding some basketball contracts. And when it comes to college basketball, be it sports bets or contracts, I’m using my heart and not my head…So, I decided to use my legs (and my car, mostly) during this March Madness and visit different sportsbook venues to see how they feel this year. 

Starting with Massachusetts sports betting, I visited the WynnBET Sportsbook at Encore Boston Harbor, and it wasn’t as crowded as I remembered sportsbooks during March Madness to be. This may have been down to the hour, though (I was there in the early afternoon), because once I arrived at MGM Springfield, the BetMGM Sportsbook on the property was buzzing with basketball fans and excitement.  

When visiting the Rhode Island sports betting market, the Bally’s Sportsbook Bar & Grill at Bally’s Lincoln was packed with people placing bets and watching the games. I asked Chad, a Lincoln local and diehard UConn Huskies basketball fan, what he thinks of prediction markets and how they affect the atmosphere at the sportsbook.  

“I’ve bought some contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket, many people you see here have these,” he said. “But we’re still all here placing bets at the sportsbook. It’s not only about the wagers, but it’s more about us locals having a chance to meet, drink a beer, eat a hotdog and watch games together. And it’s also an opportunity to meet people from other states that come here to bet.” 

The FanDuel Sportsbook in Mohegan Sun in the Connecticut sports betting market was also buzzing with people watching basketball games on huge screens, and I’ve also noticed many placing bets on the betting terminals that were spread around.  

In contrast, I found that the Caesars Sportsbook in Atlantic City (New Jersey sports betting) wasn’t as busy, but again, it may have been because I was there earlier in the day. When moving on to the sportsbooks in the Pennsylvania sports betting scene (BetRivers and betPARX, at Rivers Casino and Parx Casino, respectively), I found large crowds again gathering in front of screens showing March Madness games.  

When I asked again about prediction markets affecting people’s traditional betting behavior, several bettors told me they use both prediction markets and traditional betting. As one college basketball fan (wearing a Duke shirt) put it: “Prediction markets are just another way for us to hedge our bets. If I buy a contract on Duke to win, I may put a bet on NC to win in the sportsbook if the odds are good enough. I treat prediction markets as another leg in the same-game parlay.”  

Seeing how your everyday bettor cozies up to prediction markets got me thinking: we're really entering a modern era of betting that takes us away from traditional methods. But can sportsbooks really stand a chance in this new age? You’d like to think so. As seen during my visits to these venues, the two (prediction markets and traditional betting) can easily co-exist among bettors.  

Prediction markets take advantage of March Madness 

While consumers, as we have seen, tend not to be too fussed about where they place a bet, nationwide prediction markets are also seeing a surge in activity tied to men's college basketball, even as the NCAA continues to oppose such platforms.  

Data from Kalshi shows that $2.27 billion was traded on men's college basketball in February alone, surpassing both the NFL ($1.8 billion) and the NBA ($1.74 billion) during the same period.  

One of the busiest periods for sports betting is the NCAA tournament. Even though the Super Bowl is the largest single-day event for betting, March Madness keeps bettors occupied for three straight weeks. Betting sites see the tournament as an opportunity to increase their user base and overall bets.  

Kalshi recently announced a $1 billion perfect bracket challenge but avoided using March Madness due to its trademark status and NCAA pushback over its use. This indicates that they are trying to capitalize on demand while respecting intellectual property rights.  

Estimates from the American Gaming Association show that traditional sportsbooks are set to generate $3.3 billion in wagers during the tournament. Figures from H2 Gambling Capital estimate that prediction markets would generate between $135 million and $150 million in states without regulated sports betting, bringing the overall handle to around $4 billion.  

While some might not agree with the overall rise of prediction markets, it's not all too bad for sportsbook operators. According to research released by Citizens this week, DraftKings offered the most competitive pricing for the first four March Madness games, with a margin of 4.57%. This was followed by FanDuel and Fanatics, with Kalshi last at 4.89%.  

Polymarket becomes official MLB predictions partner 

Outside of March Madness, prediction markets continue to influence traditional sports betting by increasing partnerships with other US sports leagues. The MLB this week just marked a historic shift in sports governance by naming Polymarket its official prediction market exchange.  

At the same time, MLB has signed a groundbreaking Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This is the first MOU between a major league and a federal regulator.  

Under the deal, Polymarket will have exclusive access to MLB branding as well as data from Sportradar’s official data feed. It blocks markets considered high-risk, such as individual pitches or umpire calls. 

These are just the latest in a series of successes for Polymarket in North American sports. In November 2025, UFC partnered with Polymarket to launch "Fan Prediction Scoreboards" into live broadcasts. In January, MLS also partnered with the operator to utilize prediction data to enhance fan engagement. 

These differ from traditional sportsbooks, as they focus on "event contracts" to create a new category of fan interaction. In partnering with the CFTC, MLB hopes to take this new space to a more professional level. 

At the same time, other sports franchises, like the PGA Tour, have said they were only monitoring the prediction markets, so to speak, but appear less enthusiastic compared to other leagues to partner with them. The Tour currently has official sportsbook partnerships with DraftKings and FanDuel and doesn’t seem too keen on moving away from those established relationships.