Kalshi Users Predict 42% Chance of Greenland Acquisition Before End of Trump’s Term

Prediction markets have seen odds rise on the potential US accession of Greenland, in whole or in part, during the current presidential administration, despite traders remaining skeptical that anything could happen in the near future. 

The contracts on Kalshi that track the possible acquisition reflect a 13% chance of happening by May 2026, which increases to 27% before 2027 and further to 42% by the end of President Donald Trump's term in 2029. The trading volume on Kalshi is just above $3.6 million.

Activity has been heavier on Polymarket, where traders price a 21% probability that the US will acquire Greenland before the end of this year. Total volume on the platform exceeds $13.8 million, more than three times the level recorded on Kalshi.

Combined wagering across both prediction market apps exceeds $17 million.

The increased attention on Greenland has also been part of the growing interest in the Arctic region. Greenland is the largest island in the world and has become more valuable geopolitically due to increased access to routes and resources resulting from melting ice.

Political uncertainties are heightened by the European Union's scheduling of an urgent meeting in response to a warning from Trump about tariffs on nations opposing a US buyout of Greenland. 

Although the odds are rising according to the prediction markets, pricing still reflects a lack of belief in the possibility of a transaction.

Expansion of geopolitical markets raises regulatory concerns

The Greenland contracts form part of Polymarket's broader expansion into markets tied to global political and military developments. In the last few weeks, contracts related to potential conflicts, such as China versus Taiwan and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have appeared on the platform.

One of the markets that was particularly interested in potential US strikes against Iran accounted for over $18 million in trade volume.

However, this development has also attracted attention from US legislators and industry bodies. A group of 12 senators recently warned that facilitating wagers on war could violate federal law.

Separately, the American Gaming Association stated that contracts tied to armed conflict would not be permitted under state or tribal gaming frameworks. Polymarket has maintained that its contracts aggregate information in fast-moving situations and help users assess risk when traditional reporting provides limited clarity.

Kalshi has taken a more cautious approach, avoiding markets explicitly referencing military action. The regulatory distinction is partly structural. Polymarket has been off limits to US customers since a 2022 settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and operates using cryptocurrency-based accounts that allow pseudonymous trading.

However, despite the attention they received, military and geopolitical contracts still accounted for only a small percentage of the entire business on Polymarket. According to user-generated data on Dune Analytics, these markets account for less than 10% of the platform's total trading volume