Kalshi Refuses $54M in Payouts After Khamenei Prediction Market Dispute

Tarek Mansour reiterated the explanation on social media, saying the contract referenced the possibility of Khamenei leaving power through resignation or a negotiated transition.

Ziv Chen

Last Updated: March 6, 2026 5:36 AM EST • 2 minute read

Pictured: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at an event, as we look at how Kalshi handles markets about his removal from office and death. Photo by Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/Handout via NEXPHER

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Kalshi will not pay out roughly $54 million wagered on its contract surrounding the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, even though some users believe that they had correctly forecasted his death. The dispute centers on how the platform structures prediction contracts tied to changes in political leadership.

Kalshi offered users a contract asking whether Khamenei, 86, would be "out as Supreme Leader." The market gained traction as geopolitical tensions escalated, and the company promoted the contract across its website, mobile app, and social media channels.

The platform posted that the odds of Khamenei leaving power had climbed to 68% during trading activity on Saturday. At the same time, Kalshi noted that its markets were not designed to settle directly on a person's death.

The company added that the contract would be settled based on the last traded price before the confirmation of Khamenei's death. Iranian officials later confirmed that Khamenei had been killed during the airstrikes.

Following the confirmation, Kalshi issued a clarification stating that an earlier message about settlement conditions contained ambiguous wording. The company said it would reimburse users for losses or fees tied to trades made between its clarification posts.

Kalshi Co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour reiterated the explanation on social media, saying the contract referenced the possibility of Khamenei leaving power through resignation or a negotiated transition rather than death. He argued the market still held geopolitical relevance because leadership changes in Iran can influence global oil markets and international relations.

Cardi B halftime market adds to prediction platform controversies

The Khamenei dispute is not the only controversy facing prediction market apps. Another dispute emerged around wagers tied to the Super Bowl LX halftime show featuring Bad Bunny.

Prediction market users placed bets on whether Cardi B would perform during the halftime show, which the NFL reported drew about 128 million viewers. When the artist appeared on stage on Sunday, she danced on a pink porch set alongside celebrities including Karol G, Young Miko, Jessica Alba, and Pedro Pascal.

However, it remained unclear whether Cardi B actually sang during the performance, leaving open how the contracts should be settled.

Polymarket was expected to issue a final decision on the market last month, while Kalshi faced criticism after declining to declare a winner and instead resolving the market using its rulebook procedures for ambiguous outcomes.

The platform settled the contract using the last traded price before trading halted. That resulted in payouts of 74 cents per contract to "No" positions and 26 cents to "Yes" holders.

The halftime show contracts generated significant trading activity before the game. Kalshi recorded $47.3 million in trading volume, while Polymarket reported about $10 million. On Super Bowl Sunday, Kalshi reported more than $1 billion in daily trading across its platform, a 2,700% increase from the previous year.

Written by:
Ziv Chen

Ziv has over two decades of experience in the igaming and sports betting industry, having served in senior marketing and business development positions with both B2C and B2B companies, including Playtech and Microgaming. In 2019, Ziv decided to pursue his passion for writing and became a fulltime industry journalist, covering casino, sports, and gambling business news. He’s specialties include casino games and technology, US state gambling regulation, company performance, as well as gambling affiliates and marketing. As a Pitt graduate, Ziv is a diehard fan of all Pittsburgh sports teams, with the Steelers at the top of the list. In his free time, he enjoys reading crime fiction, biographies (mainly of sports personalities, but not only) and American history. Ziv’s Favorite quote: “We're going to pursue perfection, knowing full well we won't catch it, but we're going to relentlessly chase it," Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers Head Coach.