Betting Markets Push POTUS Impeachment Probability Higher

Betting odds that President Donald Trump would be impeached during his second term reached a record high this week on Kalshi, reflecting heightened trader attention rather than any formal movement in Congress. Kalshi's market showed a 59% probability on Tuesday, the highest level recorded since the contract was introduced.

While Kalshi odds were at what it described as an “all-time high”, rival prediction market platform Polymarket had odds as high as 14% on whether President Trump will be impeached by 2026, down from its peak of 24%, which spiked on November 28. 

Calls for impeachment resurfaced shortly after Trump returned to office, with Democratic critics citing foreign policy actions and public statements they described as abuses of presidential authority. Despite the rhetoric, no impeachment effort has advanced in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives.

However, despite growing odds among Kalshi users, any impeachment resolution would require a majority in the House, meaning Democratic sponsors would need backing from several Republicans, but that has not materialized.

The House previously rejected an impeachment resolution in Dec. 2025. That effort arose following Trump's comments about alleged sedition involving Democratic lawmakers and military orders. Nearly two dozen Democrats voted against that measure.

Even if an impeachment were to pass the House, conviction in the Senate would require a two-thirds majority, a threshold Democrats are unlikely to reach even if they improve their standing in the November midterms.

While some Republicans have shown tentative support for impeachment in extreme cases, such as the possible abuse of military power, the outcome remains uncertain due to unresolved control of the House of Representatives and favorable Senate arithmetic for a conviction.

Prediction markets draw regulatory attention

As impeachment-related markets gained popularity, Polymarket has come under recent scrutiny for contracts on global military interventions, sparking regulatory concerns over event-based prediction markets. One of Polymarket’s contracts related to potential US military interventions in the Middle East has already seen over $18 million in trading volume.

This has prompted lawmakers to question whether such offerings on prediction market apps crossed legal boundaries. A group of twelve US senators formally challenged the listings, arguing that contracts tied to war or assassination violated federal prohibitions on certain event-based derivatives.

The American Gaming Association echoed the sentiment, saying that markets involved in armed conflict would never be approved under either state or tribal gaming laws.

During that period, users accessed the platform through blockchain-based accounts that obscured identities.

That structure may soon change. Polymarket is preparing for a regulated US launch after acquiring a federally approved domestic exchange, a move that would place its contracts under closer oversight. The transition could determine whether politically and militarily sensitive markets remain viable offerings or face further restrictions under US law.