Odds on MAHUT winning at least 4 GAMES in one of his sets vs. FEDERER????

[baskets]

Just curious what kind of odds you would draw up for this...



Then, o/c, take your answer and use the geometry to find the resulting angles in the other sets.

Then match that up with the handicap for the match of -9.5/+9.5.



What would be your end conclusion on the HC?

[yisman]

I think the odds are good. I'd bet on Mahut winning four games in a set.

[TheMetsSuck]

i think fed dismantles him to make sure he gets the match in before darkness

[baskets]

I see him getting 4 games in one set. But did u guys see the Ungur match. I'm not liking what I'm seeing from Fed.

I know Fed just cruises in these matches sometimes, just shows up. Preserve and advance.

Just going back to his recent 1R and 2R performances at the FO:



Fed 4-10 vs HC in 1st 2 rounds going back in last 7 FO's... includes his 0-2 vs HC start in this year's tourney.


O/c, he's 5-1 vs the HC in the 3R of his last 6 FO's. One non-cover was against PHM.

[baskets]

1S: 6-2 or 6-3 .... Fed takes it by 1 or 2 breaks
2S: 6-4 .............. the resistance on the graph
3S: 6-3 .............. the casual close out by Fed. If it were a non-local player, that could drop off as the player throws in the towel. But expect M to hold his game for a bit.


O/c, also expecting to have a little drop off or distraction mentally from Fed ...


Actual result: Fed walks in and blasts M 6-0, 6-1 in the 1st 2 sets...

[baskets]

took -200 +10.5 on Mahut as well for fun... even tho it's a ridiculous bet

fukking sucks that at Pinny you can't put tennis handicaps in a parlay

[baskets]

yikes, Fed in God mode on serve

this might be a thrashing

[ParlayininHTown]

yikes, Fed in God mode on serve

this might be a thrashing

Far from a thrashing ... Federer may even drop a set in this match if he's not careful.

[baskets]

0-40

*4-2 fed

this will be a 6-2 set unless Fed relaxes

[baskets]

Far from a thrashing ... Federer may even drop a set in this match if he's not careful.

not seeing that

no way to win a set

[baskets]

need a hold at 5-2* for Mahut .... or this gets flipped fast

[ParlayininHTown]

not seeing that

no way to win a set

You're right. Mahut looked decent on his first two service games, but he's going to get smoked now ... Guy has always been trash on clay anyway. Hopefully Fed can end this fast but not so fast you lose your +10.5 bet.

[baskets]

0-15
15a
15-30

say bye bye

[baskets]

don't care too much about the 10.5 .... but need the 9.5 big-time

40-30 .. lucky lucky


wow, a hold

that was crucial. he jumped like a chicken at 15-30 at the net and Fed drilled the forehand into the net. it should've been 15-40... and that would've been all she wrote

[ParlayininHTown]

0-15
15a
15-30

say bye bye

6-3 ... Not bad, not great for you. You're going to need Mahut to keep his spirits up and continue to work hard to hold serve, but he's not getting embarrassed out there so far.

[baskets]

true. if Fed's motivated, he could put a bagel up... hope relaxed mode stays on

[baskets]

30-0
30a

shank!

40-30 ... man, I'm getting so lucky here it's ridiculous

[baskets]

6-3, 2-2*

held 5 of 6 times....

2 more holds here ... and 9.5 is a winner

[baskets]

15-30
30a ....

another lucky hold?

40-30
dc
ace

ha ha. this is some good shit.

6-3, *2-3

one more hold in this set by M and this is a winner

[ParlayininHTown]

You're good man ... Federer is sleepwalking. Just making sure to hold his serve. As long as Mahut doesn't poke the bear, Federer won't feel challenged and will continue to go about this casually.

[yisman]

should've bet this

mahut covers with ease

[ParlayininHTown]

Mahut wins the second set ... I could tell early on something wasn't quite right with Fed. He better get his head out of his ass before Mahut gets up a break in the third and gets the crowd to start screaming ... Federer didn't want a four or five-set match today, but now he's just fighting to stay alive.

[MUHerd37]

Fed just got broken to lose the 2nd set 6-4. Better stop dicking around and get it done. Fed is giving half effort. Better watch out.

[ParlayininHTown]

At first I thought Federer just wasn't into this match, but he's still hitting poor shots. I don't think this is sleepwalking anymore ... Federer flat out isn't playing well.

I have to give Mahut credit. He's not error-ing himself out of the match. He's forcing Federer to make shots, and he can't do it.

[shari91]

6-3, 2-2*

held 5 of 6 times....

2 more holds here ... and 9.5 is a winner

I don't understand this... you can still lose the +9.5 although it's unlikely. If Fed wins the next 2 sets 6-2 6-1 or anything less, it doesn't cover. Or are you talking about something else?

[MUHerd37]

I think Fed is sleepwalking. He's been challenging Mahut on a lot of Mahut's service games but just isn't getting it done.

[paco]

I don't understand this... you can still lose the +9.5 although it's unlikely. If Fed wins the next 2 sets 6-2 6-1 or anything less, it doesn't cover. Or are you talking about something else?

He must think its best of 3

[shari91]

Actually Mahut can even win this set in a tb or 6-4, 7-5 and you can still lose the handicap. Am I smoking drugs or are you?

[MUHerd37]

No way Mahut loses 6-2 6-1 or less. Federer isn't going all out.

[shari91]

He must think its best of 3

ah that must be it... as soon as I saw his post I was like ummm, I've lost those bets plenty of times when my guys have rolled over in the remaining sets. That's the scary thing about the best of 5 - one dud set of 6-0 6-1 or even 6-2 can screw your bet.

[ParlayininHTown]

I think Fed is sleepwalking. He's been challenging Mahut on a lot of Mahut's service games but just isn't getting it done.

He's not sleepwalking. He just blew a triple break point. He is seriously playing like s***, and I wouldn't count Mahut out so easily.

[shari91]

No way Mahut loses 6-2 6-1 or less. Federer isn't going all out.

That's why I said it was unlikely but I couldn't figure out why he was calling it a winner. Now that Paco's explained it, I get it... it's almost 3am here so I thought my brain was fried for a minute

[paco]

ah that must be it... as soon as I saw his post I was like ummm, I've lost those bets plenty of times when my guys have rolled over in the remaining sets. That's the scary thing about the best of 5 - one dud set of 6-0 6-1 or even 6-2 can screw your bet.

Like baker?

[MUHerd37]

Fed finally broke him.

[ParlayininHTown]

Mahut chokes and hits it into the net. MASSIVE break for Fed considering the way he's hit the ball at times.