Balls To The Wall: Week of Oct.6

[EaglesPhan36]

Johansson cashes at home in Sweden at +225. Big serve today.

[MexicanStallion]

Johansson cashes at home in Sweden at +225. Big serve today.

Im kicking myself for not putting down the parlay with those two picks. I thought about it, but just didnt

[smitch124]

Need to sweat it out now after being up 5-2 in third.

Wow I was out, he was up 5-2 in the 3rd and lost in a tiebreaker?

Tough beat. Looks like something similar happened in the 1st as well.

pretty live dog in any case...

[LT Profits]

Always nice to win more games and lose the match. 6-7, 6-3, 6-7.

[meganie]

Great call on Johansson eagles!

And sorry for you LT on Bachinger, always tough to lose in two tiebreaks. Anyway, thanks for Hernandez!

[bigboydan]

Here are two plays I have for today/tomorrow so far Mr.Eagles.

Carlos Moya -128
Gremelmayr +152

[meganie]

Also got Gremelmayr (but at a much worse price , should have waited till today).

My picks for today:
Gulbis at +125: If anyone saw Gonzalez against Berdych in Tokyo, s/he would admit that he played catastrophic in the first set. Nearly every forehand ended up in the net or way out. He played better in the second, but still, I am not convinced of his form, he had three setters against Bolleli, Lu, Phau, Soeda,...Gulbis seems to be ok for his last matches, ok, he lost against Tipsarevic, but what I saw from Tipsarevic against Mathieu was fine tennis (and if he played that way against Gulbis a round before), I wouldn't see Gonzalez as favorite in this match. Ok, one would say, that Gulbis is way too inconsistent, but Gonzalez just doesn't seem to be in great shape. I backed it up with three setter for Gonzalez.

Wozniacki at -141: Was lucky enough to get her at these odds, I think they dropped a bit. Chakvetadze seems to be in a little slump, losing against Cibulkova, Kanepi, Makarova and ...Wozniacki in her last tournaments. Wozniacki on the other hand had a great time last week and won the tounament in Tokyo.

Istomin at +166: What I saw of Santoro on monday didn't convince me. He was very lucky of winning against Schukin, who dominated but also made too many errors (and way too many in key situations). If you look at the stats, Schukin had 54 errors, but made 29 points forcing, while Santoro had 28 unforced errors, but only 16 points with forcing his opponent to make errors. I don't know much about Istomin, but he beat Llodra in straight, and that's enough for investing a small amount on him (smaller than the other two).

What I also like are Belluci at +250, Cibulkova at +263 and Canas at +162. Spent a tiny amount on the first two, but didn't play the last one.

Hopefully today will be as successful as yesterday. GL to everybody.

[EaglesPhan36]

Man F-ing Bookmaker doesn't even have some of these matches available to choose from.

I'm not sold on Moya at that price Dan. Schwank has been playing well at the end of the season and Moya struggled against a lesser player in Berrer last round. I will say if Moya keeps up his ace parade on serve though, Schwank will have difficulty because the only consistent points he won off Simon came on second serve.

Seeing as I don't have all these matches to choose from, I am limited in what I researched. One I kinda like:

Canas +155(Verdasco) Canas has had success in Austria in the past, albeit a long while back. Verdasco has just never impressed me on hard courts this year. His best showing was the semis in New Haven, but that path was paved with sub-par players. Canas was solid against Seppi in the opener here and Verdasco was never really pushed by a qualifier, but still only managed 6-4, 6-4 win. Canas seems to have some zip on his serve with 9 aces in the 1st rounder. If Verdasco gets bit by the double fault bug (258 DFs in 2008 compared to 237 aces) - Canas could have an opening here to score the upset.

[meganie]

Enough for me to pull the trigger on Canas

A question: Did you watch the games in Stockholm and Vienna? Since I don't have a tv, I am depending on watching i-net streams. Just curious, if there's any source for watching these games?

[EaglesPhan36]

Wozniacki at -141: Was lucky enough to get her at these odds, I think they dropped a bit. Chakvetadze seems to be in a little slump, losing against Cibulkova, Kanepi, Makarova and ...Wozniacki in her last tournaments. Wozniacki on the other hand had a great time last week and won the tounament in Tokyo.

This one stuck out like a sore thumb to me, but Wozniacki had been in poor form prior to last week. Wozniacki also didn't really beat anyone all that impressive outside of Kanepi in the final. Not that this might mean shit this year, but Chakvetadze hasn't lost to a non-Russian in her home country since 2005 (Schiavone). I don't know, revenge from Wozniacki beating her back in August and home soil -- I really did like Wozniacki when the lines first came out, but the more I look at this - Wozniacki not having played on carpet since Feb. 2007, something doesn't smell right.

I didn't get to watch any ... check out channelsurfing.net ... they sometimes have some of these tourneys available.

[meganie]

I didn't get to watch any ... check out channelsurfing.net ... they sometimes have some of these tourneys available.

Thanks.
If you wanna watch some of the games in Moscow, you can check out http://video.sportbox.ru/VidySporta/Tennis/, with google translator you should even be able to read these things.
They show nearly every game that is on center court and you can rewatch some of the past matches.

[EaglesPhan36]

Sweet. Thanks. I'm trying to talk myself out of laying something on either Chakvetadze at +125 or Cibulkova +185 over Ivanovic. Fading Ana is still a real good thing against good players.

Might just stick with Canas since I don't get some of these other matches offered.

[rain_e]

Verdasco @ 1.44
Schuelttler @ 1.40
Zverez @ 1.61
Gremelmayr @ 2.20
Gonzalez @ 1.57

[meganie]

Zverev @ 1.61
Gremelmayr @ 2.20

Why did you bet on them both?

[EaglesPhan36]

Well Canas got blasted off the court. Wozniacki did come through against Chakvetadze. Only other one I am looking at for today is Moya-Schwank. Lots of Schwank backers as the price is almost even for both players now.

[MexicanStallion]

Well Canas got blasted off the court. Wozniacki did come through against Chakvetadze. Only other one I am looking at for today is Moya-Schwank. Lots of Schwank backers as the price is almost even for both players now.

Who is your play?

[meganie]

Well Canas got blasted off the court. Wozniacki did come through against Chakvetadze. Only other one I am looking at for today is Moya-Schwank. Lots of Schwank backers as the price is almost even for both players now.

Are you gonna play it? I don't know what to expect from this game. On the one hand, Schwank surely has the talent and ability to beat Moya, on the other hand you have the experience of Moya and the long match of Schwank yesterday, while Moya had one day more rest. Would predict a close match, Schwank in two or Moya in three.

Btw, I've learned something today:
1. Never back up a dog, you never heard of, and whose only success was to beat a middle-ranked played who may had an off day. Even if you saw his opponent playing badly.
2. Never back up Youzhny, because he could lead with a break and still lose in tie break.

Looks good for Gulbis, no matter how the match ends, I'll end up at least break even due to my back up pick; was lucky with Wozniacki; great fight from Bellucci; surprisingly weak Canas; Cilbulkova worth her money, went on Ivanovic after the 2nd set and will have a win, no matter who wins; and last, the bad pick Istomin, should've known that...

[EaglesPhan36]

Well, I was saying to BigBoyDan last night that at -140, I didn't totally like Moya. Now at anywhere around -115 to -120, I think it's a pretty decent play. Yeah, I'm a cheap ass price scalper like that! Schwank is an up & comer, but seems to be stuck in the mode of getting to the 2nd or 3rd rounds and not beyond. I don't think Schwank played exceptionally well in beating Simon. Moya had two tough tie breaks against Berrer, which I wasn't impressed by at first. Looking at the stats though, Berrer was serving well and it just seems like he stepped up his game rather than Moya stepping down. If Moya is getting double digit aces in this match, I like his chances as Schwank's serve doesn't seem as potent nor his return game.

Moya seems to be the kind of player who knocks Schwank out (Solid serve/decent return skills). Stepanek & Tursonov being his last two losses.

So I'm probably going Moya. I think Bookmaker has him at -120 for me.

[meganie]

Moya seems to be the kind of player who knocks Schwank out (Solid serve/decent return skills). Stepanek & Tursonov being his last two losses.

But Schwank already beat Moya once this year, just adding.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah at the French. Moya didn't do well on clay though prior to that and has been playing much better late in the season. I think he has an advantage on the harder surface.

Cibulkova KO'ed Ivanovic.

[rain_e]

Why did you bet on them both?

No I actually didn't. I was just typing out my bets and I wasn't paying attention.

[rain_e]

Moya @ 1.76

[EaglesPhan36]

God I thought this Moya-Schwank thing was gonna start ages ago. I hate when books don't have the right times listed.

[EaglesPhan36]

Moya gets it doneski in straights, 6-2, 6-3


Helped me make up for a stupid ass parlay loss from earlier. Andreev boned me but good.

[meganie]

Congrats, didn't think that it would be that clear.

Can't find any match at a reasonable price for today to play it single.
Maybe Benneteau, maybe Monfils, maybe Clement, but still, I don't know.

[EaglesPhan36]

Ones I think I like enough to play:

Juan Carlos Ferrero -105(Melzer): I've been riding this train for a couple wins since his return. Melzer has played well late in the season and is in his home country, but JCF appears perhaps to be regaining the form that made him a factor in men's tennis early in 2008. JCF leads the all-time 4-1, although I must point out that Melzer's win came at this very tourney in Austria in '06. 3 setter seems likely either way.

Gonna try a parlay with Mathieu & Ancic.

Upset alerts: Johansson +215 over Nalbandian if his serve is sick again.

[tevari]

i think sela at +185 over mathieu is great value

[LT Profits]

I am coming back with Johannson at +205 today.

[meganie]

Maybe Benneteau, maybe Monfils, maybe Clement

Allez les bleus! French day, I am also on Mathieu.

[EaglesPhan36]

Never go Benneteau. Guy has won like one match in 4 months.

[EaglesPhan36]

Quick Tip for anyone betting Melzer-Ferrero, match may start early here in the next half hour due to Del Potro withdrawing.

Just FYI as they started the Monfils-Stepanek match early as well.

[meganie]

Never go Benneteau. Guy has won like one match in 4 months.

And still nearly beat Safin (which of course doesn't say anything, Safin wasn't even mediocre and still won). Other matches also very very close, Mathieu in tie break, Clement in third set. Could end up 1-3 or still 3-1.

Melzer-Ferrero match tight as expected, sorry for your pick, but since I live in Vienna, I'd wish Melzer as winner.

[meganie]

Mathieu match now over, man was I lucky, he won the tie break clear in 7-0, was big on him.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well got the parlay. Mathieu killed Sela in the tie break. Ferrero is getting murdered on the 2nd serve, but somehow got to a tie breaker in the 1st. At least I break even with those two bets if JCF doesn't turn it around. Hoping that Johansson can steal it in Sweden over Nalbandian still! That match oughta start in about an hour.

[meganie]

You also had Mathieu in a parlay? Than, lucky for us both.

Thought I'd lost the parlay already, after Montanes lost the first set, had him in a parlay with Mathieu.

What do you think about Petrova against Dementieva? The odds on Petrova seems to be very nice. Have +120.