Dmoneytx Daily Tennis Picks

[Dmoneytx]

Record for 7/17:

Parlays (3-1) +1.18 units
Straights (0-0-1) 0.0 units


Total = (3-1-1) +1.18 units

***This was when Hajek won by default in the first set up 4-1 or my day would of been OVER 4 units to start!!! Again, ARG!!!!




Overall Record as of 7/17:

Parlays (88-71) +1.99 units
Straights (37-27-5) -0.16 units


Total = (125-98-5) +1.83 units
Total Win % = 56.5%

[Dmoneytx]

Record for 7/18:

Parlays (0-0) 0.0 units
Straights (0-1) -3.0 units


Total = (0-1) -3.0 units

***This is the match where Anderson wins the first set & then losses to Michael Russel in three sets!! I could not believe it. On hard court?? Russell beating Anderson?? Still can't believe it a week later actually.........thought this was a good play, easy unit to be won, DAMN, was I wrong huh??? Gonna really hurt the overall, I am NOT happy about that one bit.......




Overall Record as of 7/18:

Parlays (88-71) +1.99 units
Straights (37-28-5) -2.84 units


Total = (125-99-5) -0.85 units
Total Win % = 56.3%

[gators0708]

I play mostly on har-tru (green clay). Sometimes when I use a ball machine I play on hard court where they used to have some futures at. I like clay much better though!

[Dmoneytx]

No plays for 7/19


Record for 7/20:

Parlays (0-1) -1.25 units
Straights (1-0) +0.88 units


Total = (1-1) -0.37 units

***This is when Nishikori got DESTROYED by Soeda 2&1!! I could say WOW a 1,000 times and it still wouldn't sum up my shock of Kei losing to Go..........wow.




Overall Record as of 7/20:

Parlays (88-72) +0.74 units
Straights (38-28-5) -1.96 units


Total = (126-100-5) -1.22 units
Total Win % = 56.2%

[Dmoneytx]

Record for 7/21:

Parlays (2-2) +0.33 units
Straights (0-2) -2.0 units


Total = (2-4) -1.67 units

***I got very lucky hitting two parlays on Saturday with Tipseravic in both. I did post that I was parlaying Tips in a few cross sports parlays, but this saved my butt from being a disaster day bec Cilic AND Almagro both lost. Cilic lost first set breaker 12-10 or something & then gets bageled! Almagro wins the first set, and is up 4-2 in the third and still lost!! This will knock us down to almost 3 units down, but we can get it back!!! Vamos!!




Overall Record as of 7/21:

Parlays (90-74) +1.07 units
Straights (38-30-5) -3.96 units


Total = (128-104-5) -2.89 units
Total Win % = 55.7%

[Dmoneytx]

I play mostly on har-tru (green clay). Sometimes when I use a ball machine I play on hard court where they used to have some futures at. I like clay much better though!

Only timed I played on Har Tru was when I did my certification to get my Level II USPTA rating. It was thin!! Very thin and the bounce was MUCH more predictable than red clay. The red is so deep and soft, but the Har Tru was FUN!!! Slidding on clay is something I would of been a MONSTER at if I grew up playing on them. I have enjoyed the few chances I get to play on clay. You are lucky Gator!! Gonna save those knees in the long run sir!!! But I love my hard courts!!

[gators0708]

I love sliding haha, sometimes a little 2 much! Yeah hard courts are rough, everytime im playing on hard I think what it must be like at the us open grinding out best 3 of 5 in the hot sun for 4 hrs.

[Dmoneytx]

Taking my son to Subway to eat some serious sandwhiches!! Hahaha. Be back in 30-45 mins & I am off for the afternoon

As of now I am initially leaning on these players for today: (I will be more specific and put my plays in about one hour or less, matches start in 2 hours, that is what I keep reading, 4pm CST)

Malisse should win!
Over in Guccione/Matosevic match (Gucc has almost 30 aces thru qualies, he is serving huge!)
Over in Berankis/Phau ???? (not sold yet, but I was thinking about it)
Over in Berrer/Ebden match (BOTH huge servers, both BAD returners!)

**slight lean towards Russell (vs Levine will be tought, but Michael playing good as of late) & Blake actually (Kamke is having all kinds of problems right now).......


Be back in about 45 mins. I still show about 2 hours till first match. See ya'll soon.........

[Dmoneytx]

Stuck at Wal Mart. Sorry!!!

Gonna out up first play now:

7/24
Play #1

Russell -120
Malisse -525

Total = apprx +118

1.0u / 1.18u


Bookmaker has that as the only match starting at 4pm. I will put my other plays up when I get out of this zoo in about 45 mins. GL!!

[AceKingHigh]

hahaha lol bro, hope your having fun in Walfart !

[Dmoneytx]

I have been watching the line movements all day. The one I don't like is the Matosevic match. He went from -170 to -155 now. That tells me that Guccione will prob push him today. His serve has been excellent this week in qualies.
Blake has gone from -140 to -155 and that tells me that he is prob going to win this match. Its a first round & Kamke is having issues right now with his game. He should be able to take Kamke down tonight.
Another line movement moving hard is Ebden. He started at -170 and now up to -205. Usually when I see the line movements like that move slowly over the day, that is a good sign. Berrer is not a bad player, his returns are just not good. Ebden is playing good singles & is playing really good doubles! So he is in better form, so I might lean Ebden or still take this over.....
The Klahn match will prob go over bec he plays alot of breakers for some reason, but Lorenzi is not a hard court player, but yet he is favored?? Gonna stay away from this match prob. Also with the Phau match. Again, I see an over, but Berankis is playing good and is too much a favored for me to take today. Could see three sets here, actually see Phau making this super tight. At -170?? No thanks.
Then tonight you have Johnson. Sijsling is a hard core Challanger player, so he is not a big name or has a big game. Johnson has a poor record on hard court, but might be worth the value at +140. I see this as a Challanger match basically, so I don't have an angle yet. Match set for 11pm, so if I like something I will be sure to post it.

Gonna put up a few more plays I think in a min, watching the Russell match. Hope ev1 tailed on that play or followed the thread earlier. He is playing really solid and is up a set and a break in the second. Vamos!! Time to start this day of RIGHT!!

[Dmoneytx]

7/24
Play #2

Ebden -205
Blake -155


Total = apprx +145
1.0u / 1.45u

[m9rfighter]

thanks so much for the picks homie your the man!

[Dmoneytx]

Russell played solid!!! He won easy in straights 6-3, 6-4. That leaves Malisse at +118 to beat a 23 year old American who is ranked #625 and has made all of $12,000 this year playing tennis. Olympics or not, this is a match Xavier should win 10 out of 10 times!! Also, the Ebden match is coming up. Something tells me this might be straight sets, so I didn't go with the over here. My gut just tells me Ebden is going to continue his solid play & win this match. They are kind of going in opposite directions, Ebden up to #78 and Berrer down to #100. Berrer has lost 4 of his last 5 singles matches. Even some sets at 1-6 and Phau destroyed him 3 & 3. So maybe something is up with him, I'm not sure. But his recent form has NOT been good.

More plays to come soon. I am still looking at the later matches....GL!!

[Dmoneytx]

thanks so much for the picks homie your the man!

Thanks for the props. I could of taken Russell at just -120, but I can't see Xavier losing to a sub Challanger player. I just can't. Also really like Ebden in that match, something is up with Berrer. Blake later looks like a good value bec Kamke is not playing good tennis lately, and he is home in the US, he will have HUGE crowd support! Not just that, his game has actually looked solild, almost like Blake of old, its crazy!! Roddick, Blake......these guys get to hard court season in the US and its like they stepped into a time machine, its odd. But it is what is happening. Hope you got a good play already to start the day, I am gonna post a few more up soon. I have to teach tonight in about an hour, so Good Luck to you sir! And ev1 else!!

[Dmoneytx]

7/24
Play #3

Guccione/Matosevic OVER 23 games -120


Total = -120
1.0u / 0.83u

[m9rfighter]

P. Kohlschreiber vs A. Balazs

Im thinking kohl you?

[Dmoneytx]

Have to think Kohl on this one. I know the Olympics are coming up, but Balazs is a Challanger player who lost to Gawron 6-0, 6-2 in the second and third a few tments ago!! Balazs has won FOUR matches this week already going thru qualies and first round, but he barely beat Fischer in third set breaker. Kohl is on a much diff level than ALL of his opponents this week by far!! If Kohl should win this match 19 out of 20 times! I will look more at it later, gotta run to the courts for a few lessons, I;ll get back to this match tonight before bed. Also looking more at Blake later at 9:30pm. GL!!

[imzdeals]

balazs or nothing in that match...kohl playing in olympics

[Dmoneytx]

Maybe....... But Kohl wins that match 9 out of 10 or maybe 19 out of 20 times. I thought the same thing with Malisse, and the line on him went from -650 all the way down to -500, some books lower. And he beat the crap out of Meister. I will look at this more later.

Right now I am pumped!!!! I added Ebden to another parlay with the Under in the White Sox game (Und 9) and that looks good too (50 to pay like 112)!!! Also have Ebden winning the first leg of my second play today, waiting on Blake. He won a third set breaker!!! Sweet! I also leaned the OVER in that match, so for anyone who took it, CONGRATS!!!

Malisse won easy, so the first play posted today was an EASY winner at +118!! Now waiting on Blake at +145!! Excellent value!!! Also have the over in the Guccione match pending!! Could be a really good day!!

One more play to go up maybe, I am checking now........

[Dmoneytx]

OH crap!! I also put Blake in a parlay with the Dback Money Line!! Totally forgot! I did it at the courts teaching, so I have another play at 0.5u to win 0.74u!! Kick arss!!

I know crossing sports in no big deal, I just want ev1 to know which tennis players I am using to increase my values for those plays. I think ev1 knew I like Ebden bec he is half of my second play & I had a write up on why I thought he was gonna pull that match out. I also think ev1 knows I like Blake, he was the other half of my second play. I also had a similar write up earlier on him.

I just got in 20 mins ago from teaching my last lesson. I will update these after I feed the boys. Gotta get them fed first, thread will come later. I should be back right after Blake match starts! I figured I had enough on Blake to keep me fired up for this match!! Vamos!!!

[younghandicapper]

Anything on Berankis-Phau, and Sjisling-Johnson?

[m9rfighter]

**********	7/25/12 2:37am	$82.50	$50.00	Pending	7/25/12 8:50am ATP Tennis 101 Philipp Kohlschreiber -165* vs Attila Balazs

[jbart28]

Kohl is going to lose this match. He will make it look good but the fix is in. He needs to get to london asap to get on the grass for olympics where he has a legit chance to medal for his country.

[m9rfighter]

The match is fixed?

[Lakey]

Well if Kohlschreiber wants to be at the opening ceremony and get any practice on grass before the olympics then he needs to lose this.

[BrianLaverty]

you guys are getting fixed mixed up with disinterest.

[m9rfighter]

so he couldnt just win and retire for the rest of the tournament?

[jbart28]

He will get his appearance fee, win a set, and hop a plane. The ordinary person will not know the difference but this match is as good as lost.

Look at the price...no way this price is an accurate assessment of skill differential. The price already reflects the strong possibility of kohl losing in order to get to london.

If I were you I would bet the other way to get out of this bet and onto the young challenger lad

[m9rfighter]

well i did this then:

**********

7/25/12 3:15am

$62.00

$86.80

Pending

7/25/12 8:50am ATP Tennis 102 Attila Balazs +140* vs Philipp Kohlschreiber

to even it out

[jbart28]

you guys are getting fixed mixed up with disinterest.

LOL- Come on you are on the tour with these guys. That is like when Obama says we need to raise revenue...you know what he means is he is going to raise taxes.

[Dmoneytx]

These matches are tough to cap right now, that is why I went more with the palyers who are NOT playing in the Olympics and will give 100%. Look at Mayer this morning. He should not lose to Bolleli, who is ranked around 110 or 115!! One set close, one set not close. Mayer playing for Germany?? I would think so ranked inside the top 25!! You might of done the right thing m9r. Don't sweat it too much right now. The Olympics are coming up & we hope to make some good money when they start!!! These guys in London are going to give everything they have on the court!! And those matches should be easier to predict, not easy, just alot easier. I think betting the matches in the US tonight will have much better value. Speaking of last night...........

Blake had the ULTIMATE CHOKE!!! He made a great comeback in the second set and takes it 7-5!! He was up a break TWICE in the third & serving!!! He was up 4-2 and got BROKE!! AND he was up fukking 5-3 and serving for the MATCH!!! AGIAIN gets broke!!! Horrible serving & I can officialy say that I will NEVER be backing that old washed up chump anymore. How on earth can you??? He had gift after gift and couldn't even hold serve ONE time to win this match. I honestly thought he was gonna win that third set like 6-2 or 6-3 at worse!!! And he loses in a tiebreak........OUCH!! I just don't see how anyone can back that guy ever again if he can't even beat Tobias Kamke who has had major issues with his game lately. Don't expect to see Blake winning a bunch of matches this summer, he might turn into a instafade like D Young. That or just no action! Blake was horribly disappointing. Thought for sure we had that match and we had a great day, AGAIN some chump chokes over and over............ And I actually saw that he went to -190 before the match!! At least we had him serving twice to basically close it out at +145!! RIP James Blake, your tennis career is officialy done, IMO.

Also, the OVER in the Guccione match was an easy play. The match went three sets and Matosevic won anyways after getting blown out the first set. I am just kind of frustrated from yesterday bec Matos at -170 won, Ebden at -205 won, Lorenzi at -145 won, Sisjling at -170 won, BUT Blake at -155 can't hold serve twice to win???? That was some crap luck there!! And pissed me off!!

There is rain in Kitbuhel, so the matches might be done for the day. I don't know. But I am going to look at the Cali tment prob alot more today and hope to get a good start early again like yesterday.

[younghandicapper]

Cipolli over Mayer
Querrey over Sijsling in an over match (both good servers)
Capdevilel over Ram? (not sure with this one)

[Dmoneytx]

Ya know, I was thinking Cipolla over Mayer L as well. Cipolla does NOT get alot of credit bec of his size, but he took out Sock pretty easily. and L Mayer is not a world beater or really any better than Sock IMO. Maybe a little, but Cipolla can DEF win this match! And at -110, that is a great value.
Was also leaning Querrey for sure. He will give 110% for sure and Sijsling does have a good serve, but Sam should win this match & try to do some damage this week and take advantage of a weaker field. Querrey should win this match tonight, he will have the crowd behind him bigtime!! I just doubt he will choke like Blake did with all those chances to close it out. I can also see over here much more than the under, but I might parlay the money line instead in case Sam is on tonight. Could see one breaker and one decent set............I'll look more into this after lessons today.
Capdeville has NO weapons at all. None. He grinds and grinds bec he plays clay almost all the time. I have seen both Ram and Cap play live here in Houston. When I saw Cap play, I was like WTF?? How does that win on the ATP?? Seriously, he is solid, but just doesn't have any big shots. Ram has the big serve and will force action by going to the net almost every point. Ram should be the fav here & I don't think I would bet Cap in this spot. If Ram plays his game, he wins. If he is off, it will be super close, IMO.

[gators0708]

Im going with a Ram and Querrey parlay. Querrey always plays great in LA, I think he"s going to take advantage of this weak field and pick up a much needed 250 pts for him.