Dmoneytx Daily Tennis Picks

[Dmoneytx]

I agree Gator, I see Sam playing well this tment & making the finals maybe. Ram also should have alot of confidence and motivation after some good runs lately. If he can't beat Capdeville on hard court, something might be really wrong & I prob won't back him ever again. Cap has NO weapons at all & if Ram plays HIS game well, he should win that match freaking 9 out of 10 times honestly.

What do u think of Cipolla?? The line flipped. He was -110 and now is the -120 or maybe even bigger fav now, I haven't checked. L Mayer is SO unpredictable. I have seen him play HORRIBLE & I have seen him win matches he NEVER should. I need a push here & I will pull the trigger.............I'm still thinking about it.

[Dmoneytx]

Anything on Berankis-Phau, and Sjisling-Johnson?

I didn't see this last night young. Sorry. I was outside watching the match & 420ing hard Hahaha!!!

I did write much earlier in the day that I like the OVER in the Phau match. And I thought that Sijsling would have a GOOD chance to win that match since Johnson has a WEAK hard court record. I went with gay azz Blake instead & both of those leans I had were dead on. ARG! Again, ARG!!!

I just didn't see that post so late, I didn't get back on my thread. Sorry. But always read back, usually I talk about matches and you might pick something up that answered a question I don't get to if I don't get back on here. Good luck sir!!

[Dmoneytx]

Yesterdays Record 7/24:

Parlays (1-1) +0.18 units
Straights (1-0) +0.83 units


Total = (2-1) +1.01 units

***VERY unlucky to not go 3-0 yest. Blake was up twice in the second with a break serving & could not hold either time. Epic choke by Blake, his career is officially done in my book. Tough break.........




Overall Record as of 7/24:

Parlays (91-75) +1.25 units
Straights (39-30-5) -3.13 units


Total = (130-105-5) -1.88 units
Total Win % = 55.8%

[Dmoneytx]

I am very happy I stayed away from the Cipolla match. Something was not right there. He loses 10 games in a row and retires??? He looked like a WTA player, I heard from MDF. What a joke that match was. And he took out Sock easy in straights???? Not good Jack Sock....

I also missed the Ram match, I was teaching my Autism group and we went WAY long, hahaha!! We always do, but I thought I would be back in time. Looks like he will win easy. I hope if anyone looked at the thread here, they would of seen that I really like Rajeev to win today, Capdeville just has NO weapons at all. None. I have seen it with my own eyes. So congrats to all of those who jumped on Ram straight play or parlayed to get better odds in another play!! Happy for ya'll, kind of mad I missed it......but it's all good! We had a great lesson, so I am very happy.

That leaves Querrey for tonight. I might think OVER tonight, bec the line on Sam is inching towards -400. I might parlay Sam with another play in the morning. I am looking now & that match is 3 hours away it says, so plenty of time. I will be back after taking the boys to eat some Mexican food!!! Heck Ya!!!!

[m9rfighter]

what your thoughts on E. Gulbis vs Rutra Da Silva

[Dmoneytx]

I parlayed Querrey with 2 baseball plays. So happy I did not even give the over much thought. Went with the much safer play!!
Vamos Sam!!

I will do a small write up on the Gulbis in a few mins.....

[m9rfighter]

Sick

Also im thinking on malisse over ebden

[Dmoneytx]

Dutra Silva is almost 30 years old, he is ranked outside the top 100 and he is 5'10". He won the last round against Hajek by default early in the first. So he hasn't really played a match yet. Hajek would of blown him out if he was healthy bec he has been in great form lately. Dutra Silva has lost his last 3 out of 4 singles matches. He got blown out by Chardy, 1 & 4. And then he lost to Munoz, 3 & 4. He made it to the finals of the last tment in doubles, but he lost his first round here already. I see him losing this match and collecting his second round singles check and being done. If Munoz and Chardy can take him down in straights fairly easy, then why shouldn't Gulbis?? He has much more game than both of those players, he just needs to want to win.
Gulbis lost the first set in his first match, but then really woke up and won the next two 5 & 1. He made it to the quarter finals in Suisse Open & he lost to Verdasco in three sets in the Croatia Open, his last two tments. So it looks as though Gulbis is fairly motivated & he really has plenty of game to win this match. If he doesn't win, it will be three sets and prob close, or he wins in straights I think. I honestly think he comes out wanting to win.

I didn't really look at this match until you came on here and asked, but we might be getting a great value at only -160 here. I might parlay him with one other match, I'm still looking. Maybe a straight as well.

[Dmoneytx]

Careful on the Ebden match. I have seen with my own eyes Malisse play like complete dog crap and just give up. Is he playing the Olympics?? I don't know. Ebden has been winning in singles and doubles lately & he is just finding ways to win here and there. I first thought Ebden here as a slight dog, but if Malisse wants to win and plays really well, then he will prob win this match. This is a tough one to look at actually. The obvious call is Xavier right away, but the line is suspiciously LOW and if he has to go to Olympics, I would take Ebden in a heartbeat I think.

Someone let me know if this is the case, I would love to know. Thanks.

[m9rfighter]

yea sketched out because youre right ebden has been playing good probably gonna stay away from this match, post your parlay looking fwd to it

[Lakey]

Malisse isn't listed in the betting for the Olympics so that probably means he isn't going.

[m9rfighter]

My wagers:

12920xxxxx-1	7/26/12 3:10am	$6.00	$17.10	Pending	4 Team Parlay
				Pending	7/26/12 5:00am ATP Tennis 109 Albert Ramos -355* vs Filippo Volandri
				Pending	7/26/12 5:00am ATP Tennis 114 Ernests Gulbis -160* vs Rogerio Dutra Silva
				Pending	7/26/12 12:15pm ATP Tennis 138 Simone Bolelli -185* vs Martin Klizan
				Pending	7/26/12 5:00am ATP Doubles Tennis 153 F.Cermak/J.Knowle -500* vs P.Kohlschreiber/S.Tumphart
12920xxxxx-1	7/26/12 3:08am	$15.00	$97.76	Pending	5 Team Parlay
				Pending	7/26/12 5:00am ATP Tennis 102 Attila Balazs -105* vs Philipp Kohlschreiber
				Pending	7/26/12 5:00am ATP Tennis 109 Albert Ramos -355* vs Filippo Volandri
				Pending	7/26/12 5:00am ATP Tennis 114 Ernests Gulbis -160* vs Rogerio Dutra Silva
				Pending	7/26/12 12:15pm ATP Tennis 138 Simone Bolelli -185* vs Martin Klizan
				Pending	7/26/12 5:00am ATP Doubles Tennis 153 F.Cermak/J.Knowle -500* vs P.Kohlschreiber/S.Tumphart

[Dmoneytx]

I actually fell asleep last night. Kind of glad bec I would of put a straight on Gulbis probably. I am glad m9r that you only did the two small parlays, I would of lost prob 150 or more. I am just glad you didn't lose anything substantial or big. You always have to be careful betting Gulbis, bec he is Gulbis, doesn't need the money. I heard he wasn't even losing a point on his service games and then all of a sudden he lost 4 points in a row to get broken. Dutra Silva saved all 4 break points in the first set and broke Gulbis on one chance. I don't know what happ in the second set, but Gulbis is a freaking chump to lose that match.

[Dmoneytx]

Malisse isn't listed in the betting for the Olympics so that probably means he isn't going.

Thank you for this Lakey. This means Malisse might try 100% today, going to look into this match for sure.....

[Dmoneytx]

Not alot of time for this one, but this is a play that I really really like. Kohlscriber has to play against Kavcic in London in 2 days!! This is a perfect excuse for him to exit this tment & Rosol is a GOOD player anyways. If he serves big, he will win this match in straights!! Kohl is representing Germany in 2 days & should want to be in London! He will give a 3/4 effort today & I see Rosol winning this match at ONLY -120!!!! Putting play up quickly!!

[Dmoneytx]

7/26

Rosol -120


Total = -120
1.5u / 1.25u

[gators0708]

I went with him as well. Down a break early

[Dmoneytx]

Play #2

Volandri -145
Mahutt -265


Total = apprx +133
1.0u / 1.33u

[Dmoneytx]

Bookmaker has Volandri up until 8:30, so I took him with Mahut. I was shocked to see it still up, but the tide has turned a bit there & I will go with Volandri now since they are still giving me an option to take the match. He started rough, but picked it up the last 2 games bigtime. Rosol down a break early, I hope he can get it back. Kohl needs to start to gear it down, we will find out in about 20 mins from now huh???

[Dmoneytx]

I went with him as well. Down a break early

It;s not over Gator. Maybe Kohl wins the first & Rosol comes firing back and that is when Kohl gears it down and loses in three?? If Rosol can even get this break back this first set, I see him winning it. Gonna be a fight now!! Vamos!!

[Dmoneytx]

Rosol loses the first set 4-6. Wow, we will see if Kohl keeps up this 100% effort the next set. I am hoping Rosol gets a break early maybe & uses that momentum to finish this match. The beg of this second set is going to let us know if this is gonna be super tight or over soon.....

Volandri breaks at 5-4 to take the first set!! Nice. He is starting to serve for the second set, hopefully we see more of the same in the second set.

[Dmoneytx]

I just thought about it.......... It makes perfect sense that Kohl will try 100% the first set and NOT the rest of the match. He is already there & geared up to play today bec of the morning match. He might as well go out against a much better player and get a good practice set in the first set and give 110%. Then he eases off the pedal the rest of the match so he can head to London and have at least one day to rest to get ready to play. This would not shock me at all if this was the case. As a player, I can almost feel it. It's kind of wierd........ If he was gonna go balls to the wall one set, it would be the first without question. Rosol broke Kohl easy and early this second set, he went up 3-0 in like 5 mins!!! If this match goes three, I like Rosol to play big tennis in the third & make this easy for Kohl to pack it up. At least I hope so!! Vamos!!

Also, Volandri breaks right out of the shoot in the second to go up 2-0 and serving. He can put the clamps down right now on this match & really push Silva into the ground. Keep it up Volandri!!

[Dmoneytx]

Rosol up 2-1 in the third!! He broke Kohl twice in the second set & started serving to start the third. I would luv to see him step it up and play some big man tennis & get a break right!!

Silva fighting hard in the second set, but Volandri still up 5-4. I hope Volandri kicks it up a notch right now to end that mofo....

[Dmoneytx]

Oh well, a really good opportunity pissed away again. Rosol leading the entire third set and gets broken at 4-4 with this 4th double fault of the set. A great chance to really do well here and Rosol going home. Kohl gonna play 100% next match, def the semis?? Crazy I tell ya. Now I need Mahut to basically break even so far for the day. He should have a great chance to win that match against Lorenzi!! I will prob do a play or two for the afternoon, so I'll be on later.

[gators0708]

Dam.. Bad luck with Rosol. I think Mahut gets it done against Lorenzi. Never seen him on HC but he really has no weapons on clay. I decided to chase with the Rosol loss and go with Odesnik even though I can't stand that rat!

[Dmoneytx]

Good luck with Odesnik. I hate Haase, so I stayed away. He is playing in the Olympics, but maybe he tries and this could be really close. GL!!

[gators0708]

Yeah, I saw he was playing in the olympics. I don't get what him and Kohly are doing! This event comes once EVERY 4 yrs, and they will probably have to play Sunday, but instead right now 3 days before they are playing in a 250 event on clay

[beefcake]

Dmon, I really want to see if Kohl and Haase play well enough to get to the Semis, what the hell do they do, not play the Olympics and compete for 250 points??? I am telling you straight they are both going to pull out ift hey win one more match or they are going to have to tank it to be able to make it to London, especially if they have to play on Sat.Even then they might have to play on Friday/Saturday, lose or W/O, then catch the red eye with a surface change and have no warm up time vs an opponent, Haase plays Soeda and Kohl plays Kavcic. Watch those lines closely both in Kitzbuehl and London!!

[m9rfighter]

go smoked haha

[Dmoneytx]

7/26
Play #3

Matosevic -150


Total = -150
1.5u / 1.0u

[Dmoneytx]

I just got in from lessons & I put this one in at the courts but didn't have time to post it. I think Kamke got lucky as hell to beat Blake and he got broke like 6 times!! I think Matso will hold his serve MUCH better than Blake did, and he will get those same opportunities to break I think today. He should win this match, bec I still feel that Kamke is not playing well right now. Even crappy Blake should of tooled him in that third set, I expect Matso to get thru this one today. This surface is prob he favorite and his best to play on. He has a good record on this surface and he should be tough to beat today. GL!!

[Dmoneytx]

Dmon, I really want to see if Kohl and Haase play well enough to get to the Semis, what the hell do they do, not play the Olympics and compete for 250 points??? I am telling you straight they are both going to pull out ift hey win one more match or they are going to have to tank it to be able to make it to London, especially if they have to play on Sat.Even then they might have to play on Friday/Saturday, lose or W/O, then catch the red eye with a surface change and have no warm up time vs an opponent, Haase plays Soeda and Kohl plays Kavcic. Watch those lines closely both in Kitzbuehl and London!!

Good point Beef!! I will be looking hard at those line, for sure. Thanks for the heads up!!

[Dmoneytx]

7/26
Play #4

Mahut -265


Total = -265
2.75u / 1.04u

[Dmoneytx]

I'm at the courts teaching. Just saw Mahut won!!! Sweet!!! If Rosol would of won that tight third set today, we would of had a sweep day & won every play! Would of been over a 4 unit day! ARG!! Instead we are 3-1 today for around plus 2 units (+200). I will update when I get home & have a few mins.

Still thinking about Paire match with Russell. Paire at +100 is a great value. I'm not sold yet. Have about an hour to decide if I want anything.

[gators0708]

I think im gonna go with Russell. He"s been playing the best tennis in his carrer as of late at age 34!