Tennis in Tokyo: WTA/ATP Events, Week of 9.29

[EaglesPhan36]

More late night matches to get your wager on with this week!


WTA - Morita -160 vs. Erakovic
The Japanese teen gets to play in her home country this week & that should give her a little extra oomph. She may not need much as she's beaten Erakovic in all three career meetings, including a 3 set win at the Olympics in August. Morita wins alot more points off her first serve than Erakovic on average, even though the first serve percentages are almost identical. Morita also is a little more steady recently with winning on her second serve. Erakovic has played sparsely any tennis since Wimbledon, going to 6 tournaments and being bounced in her opener in each one. Morita meanwhile has gained some hard court experiene and had a nice run through qualifying & into the Round of 16 in Seoul before losing last week.

[bigboydan]

I like it Mr.Eagles

[meganie]

Nice.

I've got Go Soeda at +110, seemed to be a good price.

[EaglesPhan36]

Nice to bounce back after a P.O.S. end to last week. Lots of tourneys this week besides Tokyo too. Gulbis-Ancic in the French tourney in Metz should be interesting in the morning. Ancic hasn't played in a few months outside of a Davis Cup tilt last week. If Gulbis hadn't just switched to clay for a couple matches prior to this, I'd say swing away at +110 for him. Then again the dude hasn't played on an indoor hard court in a year.

Looks like rain may wash out Tokyo for the next two days. Poop.

[SBR Lou]

Gulbis is slapping around Super Mario.

[EaglesPhan36]

Gulbis was +125 when the match went off.

[EaglesPhan36]

ATP - Metz, France (Tuesday around Noon ET)

Karlovic -155 vs. Baghdatis
Baghdatis at full health would be a worthy adversary for the hard serving Croatian. Baghdatis with questionable health? Well, you've got to side against that. Marcos played in his first tourney since Wimbledon a few weeks ago on the hard court in France. He retired after reaching the semis, but struggled throughout his 3 rounds there - losing one set in each round to players ranked 176 & above. Karlovic got back on the court for the first time since the US Open last week and posted a pair of wins indoors in typical Karlovic fashion. Pounding serve, 5 of the 7 sets going to tie breakers. Wagering on Karlovic is not for the faint of heart because of his propensity for being nothing more than a great server with limited return skills. That being said, with Baghdatis' health/mental state at this point in a disappointing season in question ... Karlovic is the way I go here.


If you're looking for value pick tonight to wet your whistle ... look at Robert Kendrick at +215 over Kei Nishikori, the Japanese teen sensation who had a deep run at the US Open. Kendrick is capable vet who could take advantage of jitters for Kei in front of the home crowd and a lengthy layoff that could see him a little rusty. Also remember, Nishikori got alot of props for beating David Ferrer - a guy we know now by his loss to Dudi Sela last week is not what he once was. Worthy of a small play me thinks. And this match will go off in Tokyo. It's on the covered Center Court at this venue which are the only matches going off with rain currently in Tokyo.

[meganie]

Karlovic -155 vs. Baghdatis

Love this play, had this in my mind, but unfortunately the odds on Karlovic dropped about 20 points from the opening line.

The Kendrick match is going into the second tiebreak, Kendrick lost the first one.

Any thoughts on the other tournaments?
Took Schwank at +175, Schnyder at +175 and Llodra at -125, hopefully luckier picks than the Soeda one.

[EaglesPhan36]

Didn't really like much else. I had another play in mind for the Tokyo tourney on the men's side, but the rain is gonna delay it at least another day. I'll probably post that one tomorrow if it looks like they can sneak it in. Most everything else was either too chalky or not enough of an edge for me.

That Schwank one isn't a bad one to toss in there. Both are clay courters and Almagro's only real success on hard courts came at the US Open, but he went back to clay for a couple matches so the surface change could effect him potentially. Even though Schwank hasn't won much on hard courts, he has played pretty well against Tursonov & Roddick in the last couple months - so he's not altogether useless on the surface.

Kendrick & Nishi going to a 3rd set. If Kendrick could break this dude once, I think he could roll. But both have been fantastic on serve.

[EaglesPhan36]

Kendrick cracked first. He's toast. Good fight, worth the price, but no result in the end.

[meganie]

Didn't really like much else. I had another play in mind for the Tokyo tourney on the men's side, but the rain is gonna delay it at least another day. I'll probably post that one tomorrow if it looks like they can sneak it in. Most everything else was either too chalky or not enough of an edge for me.

I guess, you're watching the score on the atp-scoreboard. Because actually there are a few more games played, as you can see here:

http://score.tennisonline.jp/score_aig_2008/action/

http://scoreboard.jta-tennis.or.jp/aigopen08/index-schedule.html

[EaglesPhan36]

Nice call on Schwank.

[LT Profits]

I bet Mahut +230 vs. Simon earlier. Currently +196 at 5 Dimes.

[LT Profits]

I bet Mahut +230 vs. Simon earlier. Currently +196 at 5 Dimes.

[EaglesPhan36]

WTA - Tokyo Open, 9.30

Pin +135 vs. Tanasugarn
Really nice price for me in Pin. She looked poised to make some noise here late in the hard court season after a nice run in India two weeks ago. Then she struggled and got beat in the 1st round last week in Seoul, struggling a bit with winning points off her serve. That is usually the strong point for Pin who has a high 1st serve percentage and does well on the second serve too. Her 1st rounder here against Navarro got her back on point with an 86% 1st serve percentage and she won over 65% of her points on 1st & 2nd serve. Tanasugarn beat a struggling Dubois in the 1st round where the Canadian could not get her second serve down and Tanasugarn made her pay. Tanasugarn's problems seems to be consistency as she's gone 5 straight tourneys since Wimbledon without winning back-2-back matches. Pin has also been strong at this event, going to the quarters and semis in the last two tries. Toss in a head-2-head win back in '06 & I think Pin has the right stuff here to advance.

[Shark79]

Like always

[LT Profits]

Like always

My MLB and CFB (so far) followers may disagree with you!

[meganie]

I bet Mahut +230 vs. Simon earlier. Currently +196 at 5 Dimes.

Lol, I also bet a tiny amount on Mahut when he was +240, but didn't really think that he had chances to beat Simon.

I bet on some dogs for today, Moya at +120, Cipolla at +333 and Lu at +350.
(Plus the earlier picks on Llodra -125 and Schnyder +175)

Pin +135 vs. Tanasugarn

Pin lost 2-6 2-6.

Lol, the first game of the Nishikori Garcia-Lopez match lasted over 20 minutes. Garcia-Lopez gave Nishikori 8 breakpoints, before Nishikori eventually used his 9th for a break.

[meganie]

Added de Voest at +187.

If the price on Nishikori is right, I will play him. Saw him playing against Garcia-Lopez and about 4 games of the Gasquet match (10 allowed breakpoints against world class player Slanar should say everything).

[EaglesPhan36]

I liked Nishikori as well, but he was -260, so a no play because I couldn't find another one to parlay him with. Nishikori's serve has been awesome so far this tourney. How about Roddick's 3 set, 3 tie breaker match with Ivo Minar? Wow. If you find a compitent opponent against A-Rod at a good price, might be time to jump on the fade Roddick train again.

I like a couple dogs in France although not sure if I will play:

Tipsarevic +185 vs. Gulbis
(Don't understand the price other than books over-valuing Gulbis' win against Ancic)

Moya +125 vs. Karlovic
(Karlovic looked vulnerable against an out-of-shape/form Baghdatis. Moya has beaten him thrice)

[Shark79]

Eagles ... gl today bud

Will tail both those plays ... lots of value on em

[meganie]

I liked Nishikori as well, but he was -260, so a no play because I couldn't find another one to parlay him with. Nishikori's serve has been awesome so far this tourney. How about Roddick's 3 set, 3 tie breaker match with Ivo Minar? Wow. If you find a compitent opponent against A-Rod at a good price, might be time to jump on the fade Roddick train again.

I like a couple dogs in France although not sure if I will play:

Tipsarevic +185 vs. Gulbis
(Don't understand the price other than books over-valuing Gulbis' win against Ancic)

Moya +125 vs. Karlovic
(Karlovic looked vulnerable against an out-of-shape/form Baghdatis. Moya has beaten him thrice)

Yeah, glad you like Moya. The odds on Nishikori weren't good at all for his match against Garcia-Lopez, but I like his price against Gasquet at +150.

Not very surprised about the 3 setter at Roddick's match. Ok, he won in Beijing, but he didn't convince me at all. Against Sela, he was playing average, but still won with luck.

I think Gulbis is overrated, maybe because many people only remember him playing at the French Open. I will stay away from it, as I think that Gulbis is too inconsistent.

Btw, Lu lost against Gonzalez in 3 after leading 1-0 with winning 6-1 the first set, damn this would have been great value. At least de Voest won in 3.

What do you think about playing Domachowska at -104?

[EaglesPhan36]

Domachowska screwed me hard last time I played her, she had 20+ double faults in the match. That's the biggest hole in her game that I can see - her serve's consistency. All that being said, I always subscribe to the let down theory after big wins & Zakopalova got that over Kirilenko. And from looking at the stats, it looks like she played up to the level of competition & not Kirilenko playing necessarily poorly. Natural let down, but this seems like a coin flip.

Nice job on De Voest.

Pin sucked major balls last night for me. Real disappointed in that one.

[EaglesPhan36]

Got Tipso at +190 against Gulbis. Treading light though, a massive $25 bet.

[single shaker]

I liked Nishikori as well, but he was -260, so a no play because I couldn't find another one to parlay him with. Nishikori's serve has been awesome so far this tourney. How about Roddick's 3 set, 3 tie breaker match with Ivo Minar? Wow. If you find a compitent opponent against A-Rod at a good price, might be time to jump on the fade Roddick train again.

I like a couple dogs in France although not sure if I will play:

Tipsarevic +185 vs. Gulbis
(Don't understand the price other than books over-valuing Gulbis' win against Ancic)

Moya +125 vs. Karlovic
(Karlovic looked vulnerable against an out-of-shape/form Baghdatis. Moya has beaten him thrice)

gulbis vs tipsy match is playing russian rullette, both guys are very incosistent in their result, i agree with you if i played this one i would go with tipsy at +185, but i dont remember him winning two matches in the row in ages,

i really like moya pick, karlovic had all sorts of problems yesterday against baghs, and was saved by retirement.
moya has been doing well lately and holds 3-0 record against big guy. i would not bet my house on it, but it worth to put one unit on moya there.

[meganie]

Got Tipso at +190 against Gulbis. Treading light though, a massive $25 bet.

Backed up Gulbis after the first set for +220, GL to you.

[EaglesPhan36]

Tipso wins in straights, 6-4, 6-4. Nice!

[meganie]

Damn, at least the price was right. Congrats
Reduced my amount for Domachowska.

[single shaker]

Tipso wins in straights, 6-4, 6-4. Nice!

Dude I am shutting up and backing every pick you are giving, talking about hot streak; you can wrap shyt in the cellophane and sell it as jewelry.

[MexicanStallion]

Another great call. Im disappointed that I was late here and missed the play

[EaglesPhan36]

Eh, don't back me too much. I just missed one last night that I really liked. I only hope to add some insight & you know if you like a pick and I do too ... then hopefully, we're all right!

[meganie]

Yeah, your record must be somethin like 20-3, he?

My bets for tomorrow (hope you don't mind, if I post my picks in your thread, don't wanna open a new one, as I'm not very experienced at betting and don't wanna lose other people's money):
Nishikori at +150
Morita at +333 (tiny)
Domachowska at -104 (tiny)
Gicquel at +134 (small)
Stosur at -120

Schnyder - I think she has a 50/50 chance against Petrova. Both played well lately, the only disadvantage Schnyder has is maybe that she played three sets and doesn't have two day rest. But she bet Petrova on Bali and if the odds go over ~+110 I'll play her.

[EaglesPhan36]

I always want threads here to be for general discussion, not just me picking. I'm happy we have some more interested tennis cappers! I'm just getting around to looking at the Tokyo matches for tonight, hopefully some good prices.

Moya wins in straights by the way for any of you who hopped on that sucker. That made up for me losing last night money-wise.

[MexicanStallion]

Nailed another one. Im disappointed that I really missed that first pick now, because that could have been a nice parlay shot. Great picks again Eagles

[EaglesPhan36]

WTA - Tokyo Open, 10.1

Stosur -135 (Garrigues)
Very similar runs for these ladies late this summer on hard courts. Stosur seemed to bounce back just fine after faltering against Kirilenko in the final last week. Stosur somehow finds ways to win points off her serve even though her first serve percentage isn't great. She still wins 70% off her points off that first serve. Garrigues didn't do anything wrong really in winning her first rounder, yet Chan stuck right with her and even took a set. You can gauge Garrigues' matches fairly easily it appears. If she's hitting her returns well, she's in it. If she's not, she's going to struggle. And if her opponent isn't phased by her serve, then her opponent likely wins more often than not. Stosur shouldn't be weary of her serve, but must improve her normal 1st return win % to advance here. That being said, Stosur seems to be ripe with confidence after her run in Seoul where she was serving & returning very well indeed.


Not seeing a ton to like tonight in Tokyo. Robredo/Berdych is a toss-up and I think Berdych is better if his serve is working, but who knows if that occurs two matches in a row.

Want to take Nishikori over Gasquet as they both possess a similar game, but it seems like when you leave that French F-er for dead after he chokes, he finds a way to win.

I think Llodra tomorrow morning at Metz might be nice with + money. Stil searching!