Tennis in Tokyo: WTA/ATP Events, Week of 9.29

[meganie]

[b]WTA - Tokyo Open, 10.1

I think Llodra tomorrow morning at Metz might be nice with + money. Stil searching!

Line came out at +162, which is imo very nice. Gonna play it.

Also played a tiny little amount on Delic at +275 and Melzer at +333.

I also skip Schnyder, the lines are nearly even.

Btw, you were so right on Gasquet, Nishikori is already trailing 3 games.
Can someone explain me, why Gasquet played such crap against Slanar and now is crushing Nishikori? Except for the fact, that Gasquet is Gasquet...

[EaglesPhan36]

Kinda spooky when my Gasquet-o-meter is working. Today just means he gets over valued next round vs. Schuettler. Should be funny to see how big a favorite Del Potro is over Ferrer, the "#1" seed for this tourney.


One overnight I think might be good. Schwank over Hanescu. Even against an out-of-form Lubijcic, Hanescu didn't return well. He'll need to improve that to knock off Schwank who looked at home in his first indoor hard courter against Almagro.

[meganie]

Kinda spooky when my Gasquet-o-meter is working. Today just means he gets over valued next round vs. Schuettler. Should be funny to see how big a favorite Del Potro is over Ferrer, the "#1" seed for this tourney.


One overnight I think might be good. Schwank over Hanescu. Even against an out-of-form Lubijcic, Hanescu didn't return well. He'll need to improve that to knock off Schwank who looked at home in his first indoor hard courter against Almagro.

Yeah, this is the first and last time ever I bet on a match where Gasquet is the favorite.

Found a nice price for Schnyder after all, I will go with her at +110.

I like your Schwank pick, I planned to play it, but the price dropped about 15 points. I liked it at -111, I don't like it that much at -125. But if you like it, I'm sure, that I'm gonna play it.

Btw, if you wanna pick Llodra, don't wait to long. The line is now at +150 and I think it will drop even more. When his line came out for the Lopez match, he was first about -125, at closing he was around -160.

[EaglesPhan36]

Schwank got 'er done.


Took a shot at Llodra at +145. Should be a great match with Stepanek. They played an epic at Beijing. 2nd set tie break and then Llodra winning 11-9 in the 3rd set. Hopefully playing on home turf helps Llodra as well. That one should be starting soon!

[EaglesPhan36]

LLodra flamed out in the 3rd set tie break after being up a break in the set. Guy got Rick Rolled 7-0 in the tie break. Wow what a doosh.

[meganie]

Not a good day at all.

Eagles, you were wright with everything, Domachowska, Nishikori. At least I got my money back with some live betting.
And hopefully Gicquel wins his match.

[EaglesPhan36]

Domchowska just has an awful serve. They'll fool you once, but don't let 'em fool you twice! Speaking of Richard Gasquet ....


No way in hell I'm not putting a little bit on Schuettler at +240!

[EaglesPhan36]

Just some thoughts for tonight as I'm not really committed to any of these as having a superior edge to play, but believe they all have possibilities.

Schuettler +240(Gasquet): So comes the question, do we get the dominant "Gasquet" who beat Nishikori or does "Gasket" as in blown gasket come back tonight against Schuettler. I mentioned yesterday that I thought Gasquet was due an appearance against the rising Japanese start and he came out to play in a big way, dominating with his serve & return game in a 6-1, 6-1 whipping of Nishikori. Put a little perspective on this though, Nishikori gained most of his attention for beating an out-of-form David Ferrer at the US Open. Prior to that run that saw Del Potro dispatch on him rather easily, Nishikori had been pretty plain since winning at DelRay Beach in March. Look back at the 1st rounder for Nishi in this tourney and he struggled against American Robert Kendrick in 3 hard sets where his serve carried him throigh. What am I saying? Gasquet was impressive yesterday, but Schuettler just beat him in Beijing last week. Gasquet is severely over-inflated I think on public perception of yesterday's match because in all honesty, he hasn't done much on hard courts since the begining of '08. "Gasquet" may show again tonight, but at better than 2:1 odds, I'll tip the guy who beat him last week.

Gajdosova +155(Zakopalova)
The love for Zakopalova continues mainly due to her defeating Kirilenko in the opening round here. Prior to that, she had no form to speak of really. Gajdosova is a youngster who could soon be ready to make a name for herself by getting to a WTA final someday soon. She's been smoking everyone in prep for this tourney on her homecourts in Australia, winning a couple tourneys. Her runs thru the qualis in Tokyo and wins over Santangelo & Peer show that she can win now. Her big need for the win today will lie on her ability to win points on her return. That is the only place she is weak right now, but she's been a bit more steady in this tournament with that.

Also think I like Berdych over Gonzalez, but the price of -130ish I'm not sure on. I think Berdych is getting the price based on his success here last year, otherwise this one should be much more of a toss-up if not Gonzo being the favorite.

[bigboydan]

I'm with you on Schuettler Mr.Eagles.

[meganie]

The odds on Tanasugarn seemed to me a little high, I went with her at +300.

[MexicanStallion]

Nice first call. Gajdosova 7-5, 7-5

[EaglesPhan36]

That one I do not even know how it happened. I saw she was down 5-1 in the 1st and pretty much chalked it up as a loss.

[MexicanStallion]

I know. I saw she was down 4-0 and I stopped looking. Checked back anyway and it was 5-2. Then its 5-5. Unbelievable. Nice play.

[meganie]

Schuettler +240(Gasquet)

He surely was "Gasquet" today . Anyway, curious what he's odds will be against Del Potro.

Well, congrats on Gajdosova. Btw Stosur also gave up a huge lead in the first when she was 5-2, still lost 7-5.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah the only consolation for me is I only lost Schuettler in my contest pick, not real money. I should know by now that putting tennis picks into the 128 man contest is death.

[EaglesPhan36]

For the Metz tourney today. Like these, but again no superior edge to them.

Moya +135 seems to be the better value than going -165 on Tursonov. Moya already had practice for an opponent with a big serve in defeating Karlovic. I think this match is won by whomever figures out a way to win points off the other's serve as both men having been serving well in this tourney.

Tipsarevic EVEN over Mathieu. The only thing Tipso doesn't have going for him is that he's not French. Mathieu has been ousted from this tourney every year by a fellow countrymen. If that rule stays in effect, then he'd advance and lose to Gicquel or Mannarino. Since Mathieu slumped here during the latter portion of the hard court season, big serving opponents have been his demise. Tipso seems to have his cooking and leads the head-2-head (2-1) with a win on a clay surface earlier this year that is actually faster than the court in Metz.

[EaglesPhan36]

I think I am about done for the week. This is the time when edges become very hard to find as evidenced by the last few I highlighted that I liked the "best." Fun week. Maybe something will pop out for tomorrow or Sunday, but football takes center stage.

[EaglesPhan36]

WTA - Tokyo Open, 10.3

Kanepi -140(Wozniack)
Kanepi has enjoyed her greatest success of 2008 late in the hard court season, but she's still trying to get to her first WTA final of the year. She's a step away and this might be her best chance. Kanepi has been pushed in this tourney, going 3 sets twice & two tie breakers yesterday. Her main foe has been a tendency to double fault. That's more-often-than-not been her downfall when she loses. For Wozniak, she took out a hot player in Stosur, but Wozniak has owned her throughout their careers. Wozniak has made things easier on herself with a solid serve & decent return game. Much like Kanepi, double faults do come up to bite her now and again. Otherwise, this match appears fairly even with Kanepi rated slightly better on the return and she goes into this knowing she won the only career match-up between the two in August 07 DESPITE 21 double faults! This should be a battle where double faults do creep up on both, but I think Kanepi has been more consistent at this stage of the year and has to go into this knowing it's her best shot at a WTA Final.

[rumple]

Any thoughts on Berdych +150 vs Roddick?

[rumple]

Nice Kanepi pick. Berdych showed lots of heart down a break in the third to pull it off.

[EaglesPhan36]

Nice grab if you got Berdych. Only thing I think I know for the finals of these tourneys tomorrow is Venus Williams appears to be the best pick....

Of course that's only if she actually gets there.