EdwardHaney's Tennis Thread (Introduction)

[EdwardHaney]

^^^ That's a 1 Unit play, by the way.


I may be done for the day with that. I'll try to come up with something tonight in the Anderson/Dimitrov match, but won't force anything.

[EdwardHaney]

I made a bet on Scheepers but missed getting it in on time by like 5 seconds . That's what I get for not paying enough attention to WTA. She's tearing through McHale right now. We'll see how that ends up...

[EaglesPhan36]

Looks like got saved by the bell on Scheepers.

[EdwardHaney]

McHale has taken a while to wake up in her past few matches. I don't know why I always want to doubt her though. Got damn women...

[EdwardHaney]

Overall: 7-1 (+8.40 Units)
Favorites : 4-0 (+4.00 Units)
Underdogs: 3-1 (+4.40 Units)


Volandri makes life un-miserable for me today. Amazing. I still have Riba pending. I probably could have left that one off my card today but I suppose there are worse things than needing a Spaniard to come through in a sporting event. C'mon homie, take Mello behind the woodshed tonight!

[EaglesPhan36]

Nice pick on Volandri big dawwwg

[timhenman]

Volandri..... Good capping...

[EdwardHaney]

Overall: 7-2 (+7.40 Units)
Favorites : 4-0 (+4.00 Units)
Underdogs: 3-2 (+3.40 Units)


Do we keep fading Bogomolov or is it finally time to make a play on him? He's +130 vs Stakhovsky. I think he's due for a win.

[EdwardHaney]

Yakimova +600 over Goerges (1 Unit)


Goerges has played well so far this season but I think she's been slightly overvalued lately. Yakimova on the other hand has yet to win this season, but is coming off the best season of her career in 2011. Yakimova is 1-0 in the head-to-head series - that win coming in 2008 at the French Open. Goerges was only 19 at the time and it was a different surface, but it still shows that Yakimova can beat her in an important match. Yakimova also took the 1st set last week in a Fed Cup match versus Serena before Serena steamrolled her off the court. Yakimova stands at only 5'5" but she is much better than this line indicates, and Goerges, while I like her, is not as good as this line indicates. I can see Yakimova at +375 or something but +600? Really? Yakimova is going to win a match eventually, and Goerges hasn't exactly been dynamite this season when facing opponents that are approximately where Yakimova is in the rankings.

[Nikigreat]

Yakimova +600 over Goerges (1 Unit)


Goerges has played well so far this season but I think she's been slightly overvalued lately. Yakimova on the other hand has yet to win this season, but is coming off the best season of her career in 2011. Yakimova is 1-0 in the head-to-head series - that win coming in 2008 at the French Open. Goerges was only 19 at the time and it was a different surface, but it still shows that Yakimova can beat her in an important match. Yakimova also took the 1st set last week in a Fed Cup match versus Serena before Serena steamrolled her off the court. Yakimova stands at only 5'5" but she is much better than this line indicates, and Goerges, while I like her, is not as good as this line indicates. I can see Yakimova at +375 or something but +600? Really? Yakimova is going to win a match eventually, and Goerges hasn't exactly been dynamite this season when facing opponents that are approximately where Yakimova is in the rankings.

Was about to pick Yakimova me too, for your same motivations, than I changed idea, don't even kno why.
GL by the way

[EdwardHaney]

That's good to know Niki, thanks. I hope Yakimova at the very least makes it interesting so I don't feel like I just donated money. I'm not too worried though, I think she has a really good chance. If you just look at the line you would think she was up against Azarenka or somebody like that, but no, it's Goerges. We'll see what happens.

[Nikigreat]

Georges not even has a great record on hard, 62W/55L, while Yakimova is 139/95... if she only had win some match in 2012, just one or two. Don't like to go on a player with a bad streak like that, even if she has to win sooner or later.

[brandoc]

The Yak is effectively getting odds of +720 at Betfair... fill yur boots!

[EdwardHaney]

Nieminen -170 over Sijsling (1 Unit)


Nieminen is a relatively consistent player. He's generally somebody I trust not to blow his wad. Sijsling was not even favored to win many of his matches last week so why would anybody like him too much today? My hesitation with this would be that Sijsling is playing in his home country and riding a lot of momentum and may have his share of the fun, if only for a while (perhaps win a set). I don't think that's going to be enough to get a win today versus a very established player in Nieminen. He may even be looking at the draw and thinking he has a good chance to still be playing later in the week. As I like to say, upsets usually happen when nobody is expecting it. Sijsling is not coming into the match under the radar and Nieminen will not be caught of guard.

[EdwardHaney]

I'd like to add, I think Nieminen wins this more than 2 out of 3 times so the juice would have to be more than -200 before I would be scared away. I think we're getting a good price, as long as I've evaluated the situation accurately.

[EdwardHaney]

Overall: 8-3 (+7.40 Units)
Favorites : 5-0 (+5.00 Units)
Underdogs: 3-3 (+2.40 Units)


The Nieminen match went almost exactly as I thought it would, however Yakimova got slaughtered.

[showmdamoney]

Looks like you got it rolling, nice job. Any thoughts or plays on WTA tomorrow? Thanks for the help

[EdwardHaney]

Looks like you got it rolling, nice job. Any thoughts or plays on WTA tomorrow? Thanks for the help

I'm not as good on WTA as I am with ATP, (0-2 compared to 8-1 here). I do better with the women when the majors come around so be careful with my WTA picks. If I had to take a stab on an upcoming underdog though I would go with Niculescu over Zvonareva. I'm likely going to play that one. I have a sneaking suspicion that Razzano is going to get through Pervak as well. Good luck.

[EdwardHaney]

I was just going over some bet history. Here's a 5 unit play from this past Friday I didn't get posted I thought you all might enjoy.

[EdwardHaney]

Copil -135 over Soeda (1 Unit)


As much as I try to stay away from women and Challengers, here I go again. Soeda is the 1 seed in this tournament. Copil is a qualifier into the main draw. Copil is favored. Those last 3 sentences are all I need to know to make this play. If I knew nothing about tennis and only saw that, I would still make this an automatic play. I don't care what sport we are talking about, this kind of situation is an automatic play for me, every time, for the rest of my life. Will it work every time? Not every time, no. Will I bet on this every time? Yes. Forget about the stats and everything you know about the players. Just listen to what the line is telling you and don't try to fight it, or outsmart yourself. Copil is the play, live with the result.

[Nikigreat]

We are all on Copil today

I picked Lepchenko over Georges +250, you saw a possible loser in Georges against Yakimova, why not today with Varvara who is playing well on this surface?

[EdwardHaney]

We are all on Copil today

I picked Lepchenko over Georges +250, you saw a possible loser in Georges against Yakimova, why not today with Varvara who is playing well on this surface?

It's bad news that we are all on Copil in my opinion, but oh well. At least everybody I've seen on Copil is a legit handicapper not a bunch of dumbasses so we should be alright. As far as Lepchenko, I won't do it myself but I think it's a solid play. I'll cheer for her man!

[jsmithj88]

thoughts on the delp/llodra match?
delpo ml dropped to -475 ...........

[Nikigreat]

It's bad news that we are all on Copil in my opinion, but oh well. At least everybody I've seen on Copil is a legit handicapper not a bunch of dumbasses so we should be alright. As far as Lepchenko, I won't do it myself but I think it's a solid play. I'll cheer for her man!

Can't believe the way Copil lost: first game lost serve, first game second set lost serve; then holded everytime at 0 or 15 and had more break points than opponent, had 4 in last two serve games of Soeda and wasn't able to break!

[EdwardHaney]

Nieminen -200 over Kubot (1 Unit)

[EdwardHaney]

Overall: 9-4 (+7.05 Units)
Favorites : 6-1 (+5.65 Units)
Underdogs: 3-3 (+2.40 Units)


Nieminen and Kubot play an even match, but Nieminen wins the pressure points.

[EdwardHaney]

Bellucci -180 over Mello (1 Unit)


Surprisingly I've been playing as many favorites as I have underdogs lately, which is not my style but I've felt good about 'em so it's whatever. Today I have another favorite that should be in a good spot to get a win. Bellucci has been silent this season but is due to make some noise and I think it happens this week. He lost to Mello last year in this tournament which is played in Bellucci's home town of Sao Paulo. Mello lost in the 1st Round last week, but has already got a win over Riba in this tournament to make up for it and will likely bow out now to Bellucci, who had a bye for the 2nd straight week. Bellucci has a higher ceiling, more motivation, and the head-to-head edge all working for him today. Mello is only 6-13 vs fellow lefties in his career. I could go on further but the two relevant points here are 1) Bellucci is simply a better talent, and 2) he's going to be more motivated today. That's enough for me.

[Nikigreat]

I will be on Bellucci too if I close a parlay with Nalbandian.

[ebbearsfb1]

nice thread ya got here good luck to you

[EdwardHaney]

Overall: 10-4 (+8.05 Units)
Favorites : 7-1 (+6.65 Units)
Underdogs: 3-3 (+2.40 Units)


Just updating the record. I always talk about how I need to stay off of Challengers and women. I do okay staying off for the most part but just can't help myself sometimes. I'm 10-4 overall but 1-3 of that is on Challengers and women, while 9-1 on ATP. Discipline is key, my friends.

[EdwardHaney]

I'm leaning very heavily towards taking Bellucci over Leonardo Mayer today. Tell my why I shouldn't? I will be back later to potentially finalize this one.

[EdwardHaney]

I don't think I can make a call in the Bellucci match. I am a bit scared of Mayer tonight but the crowd should push Bellucci enough to complete some breaks in this one. I don't know. I have always overvalued Bellucci so I might be best served passing on this one.

Nobody has any faith in Roddick tonight apparently? I know Istomin's form is pretty good right now but man, oh man. If Roddick wants to win this he can, and he's one of the guys I usually trust with my money. Surely he can sense the doubt surrounding this match and will play really well. Istomin has definitely done some nice things so far this year.

[Hangoverblack]

On Mayer, the way I see it, this line needs to be -200 and it's not. My local opened it at -125 with Mayer at -105, and has moved to Mayer +110 and Bellucci to -140. I will hesitantly play Mayer who is in fine form; my fear is that Bellucci was simply rusty and without killer instinct in his opener against a fellow countryman. Hope I'm wrong.

[EaglesPhan36]

Roddick rolled his ankle against Kudla + the hammy still looks problematic. Istomin or nothing for me in that one although I trust Istomin about 0%

[EdwardHaney]

Mayer just moved to +125 and Bellucci -165

Before I was seeing +105 and -135 or something like that.