EdwardHaney's Tennis Thread (Introduction)

EdwardHaney · 01-31-12, 02:01 PM

Montanes -200 over Ramirez Hidalgo (1 unit)

Montanes has played some excellent matches in Vina del Mar in the past. He's 0-2 this year but both losses came in Australia. He's had time to adjust, and is back on the dirt against a player who he's very comfortable with and confident against. Ramirez Hidalgo's better days are behind him. I doubt he'll ever get back into the top 100. Wins at ATP level events could be few and far between for him. It's a tough spot for him today. I'm comfortable laying the juice with Montanes.

EdwardHaney · 01-31-12, 02:57 PM

Serra +190 over Kamke (1 unit)

I know Serra isn't one that usually beats people that he isn't supposed to beat. He's been going through qualies a lot lately, but looking good doing it. He has some home cooking today and winning one match in this tournament is totally within the realm of possibilities. Additionally, I like to fade people that overachieved at the Australian Open in their next tournament. I'm not sure if Kamke fits that description though, his game has been excelling for a while now. This could be an interesting battle. At the given price, I'll go with Serra. Kamke will have a solid year, I just thing he could get stung today.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-31-12, 03:23 PM

Welcome aboard ... I'd advise against tailing me blindly. Good luck today.

EdwardHaney · 01-31-12, 04:10 PM

I might be disgusted that I didn't Prodon over Chardy at that price. I had that one locked in and just couldn't do it. We'll see how that match finishes up.

I believe the match of the day is coming up with Mello vs Junqueira. These two lefties have played 3 times and it's gone the distance all 3 times. This may be the only match I watch all day, and how ever could I watch something without having action on it? I really can't back either one though, but my gut is saying Junqueira. As I'm typing this Mello just moved from -150 to -165. Junqueira at +125 seems good to me...but I feel like I'm missing something so I'm going to look for a spot where I'm a little more confident. I thought I was going to be good with Junqueira, but now I'm confused at the last minute.

EdwardHaney · 01-31-12, 05:31 PM

Does anybody else think Massu +250 could be a play? He's watching his boy Gonzalez do work right now and I think he will be lifted enough to win. I think he will want to make it 2 for 2 for the Chileans tonight. I know Massu hasn't beaten anybody good for a long time but we're talking about Delbonis here not some world class opponent. I'm looking into some longshot parlay options including Massu as well. Can anybody give me a defining reason not to use Massu to my advantage tonight?

EaglesPhan36 · 01-31-12, 05:38 PM

I was actually wondering why Massu is still playing tennis.

Delbonis is better than him at this stage on clay, but Delbonis is also young and inconsistent. If you look at some of the guys Massu lost to in his few matches last year on clay, it's hard to like him against anyone, but stranger things have happened. Long shot is definitely a good description.

EdwardHaney · 01-31-12, 06:24 PM

Thanks EP.

Massu just moved to +300. I know he stinks, but I was banking on him being a little bit emotionally lifted for this match. That and the fact it's been forever since he's had a "moment". I just thought if he was ever going to do something a little special again that tonight could be the night. But If he really had a chance I'm assuming the odds would be closer. I was going to make it into a 5 leg parlay that probably wouldn't have hit anyways, but I may just nix the idea altogether.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-31-12, 09:05 PM

6-0, 6-3 Delbonis ... definitely good one to have passed on.

EdwardHaney · 02-01-12, 03:25 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

6-0, 6-3 Delbonis ... definitely good one to have passed on.

Money saved is money earned. I do appreciate your input on that one.

dlweaver · 02-01-12, 12:04 PM

nice 2-0 start on your plays here. best of luck to you.

apeterlives · 02-01-12, 12:15 PM

On Montanes today as well, he looked great the other day, and today should be no different. Nice picks Ed

EdwardHaney · 02-03-12, 02:24 AM

Overall: 2-0 (+2.90 Units)
Favorites : 1-0 (+1.00 Units)
Underdogs: 1-0 (+1.90 Units)

Chardy -160 over Gil (1 unit)

There's some bizarre history here as these two guys played in the 1st round at 3 straight majors back in 2008, with Chardy bouncing Gil in all 3. Gil was able to comeback after dropping the 1st set to Chardy in Bucharest last year on clay in their only other meeting. Gil's form is good right now and he has been a bit of a moneymaker lately, but I feel like he has out-stayed his welcome in this tournament. This is a tournament where Chardy can (and I feel has been wanting to) explode. I'm under the impression that Chardy is taking these next few days very seriously, and in this series Chardy has been a cut above when it's been most serious.

Monaco -200 over Montanes (1 unit)

These guys have been staples at this tournament for a handful of years now. The margin between these guys at this moment doesn't seem big enough to justify laying this much juice, but Monaco has all the motivation to get through. Montanes is 2-0 in the series and has had more success at this tournament, and I think losing gamblers will toss in some money on him "just because". Monaco knows he has an opportunity to get a title this week and overcoming the hurdle that is Montanes is one reasonable step along the way. Not only is Monaco ready for him this time, but Montanes is due for a let down after looking too good recently. I love matches when a motivated opponent is up against a guy due for a let down. It's even better when the favored guy feels like the underdog. The underdog is always in trouble in that situation.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-03-12, 07:09 AM

Ay Ay Ay Chardy.

Good luck. That guy drives me insane.

EdwardHaney · 02-03-12, 07:37 PM

Berrer has another juicy looking number tomorrow against Youzhny. It's making me go "Hmmm..."

Lacko too. This is his kind of tournament and aren't we all just waiting for an opportunity to go against Baghdatis? This could be it...

EdwardHaney · 02-04-12, 07:25 AM

Overall: 4-0 (+4.90 Units)
Favorites : 3-0 (+3.00 Units)
Underdogs: 1-0 (+1.90 Units)

Lacko +165 over Baghdatis (1 Unit)

I think a lot of people are going to look at the semifinals today and immediately be drawn to Berrer when looking for a juicy upset pick. Although Berrer does seem like a decent play, I think Lacko is just as capable of pulling an upset as Berrer is except that Berrer's opponent is really solid and Lacko's opponent is, well, Baghdatis. Lacko's form has been really good this year and the hunger is there as well. I try to make picks where I can make a solid case both FOR my guy, and AGAINST the other guy. I can certainly do that here. In the Berrer match I can only argue FOR Berrer, but not really AGAINST Youzhny, so that makes it less appealing to me than the Lacko match. I'm not happy that Lacko dropped a couple of sets early in the tournament but the guy can be resilient and is ultimately getting wins. Lacko will go down fighting hard, if he goes down at all. Now it's also possible that Lacko may even win without a sweat. This might be easier than I'm imaging. I would appreciate that of course. Get 'er done Lukas, send Baghdatis home in convincing fashion for me!

Yezzir · 02-04-12, 07:36 AM

Good work here!

I really, really like Lacko too.

EdwardHaney · 02-04-12, 04:05 PM

Overall: 5-0 (+6.55 Units)
Favorites : 3-0 (+3.00 Units)
Underdogs: 2-0 (+3.55 Units)

Ask and I shall receive - Lacko wins in straights. That will likely bring a close to my week. I may give Berdych a look vs Monfils but I don't see myself going through with it, but who knows.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-04-12, 05:22 PM

EdwardHaney · 02-08-12, 08:13 AM

I'm going to be treading lightly this week due to no major ATP events on the schedule. I don't like burning through money on Challengers or on women's matches.

I almost pulled the trigger yesterday on a Sock + Querrey parlay and upon seeing how that would have turned out I was quickly reminded why I try not to parlay very often. I had some confidence in the Sock match and should have played it. Oh well, coulda woulda shoulda. No harm done. I see Sock for the 2nd day in a row has gone from underdog to favorite. That usually indicates a tight match is coming, which probably should equal a no-play as much as I want to roll with him. I'm liking Zverev -135 over Kudla, and Groth -165 over Rieschick. I really don't see Rieshick winning but it takes a lot for me to pull the trigger on some of this shit. I really don't have a problem laying some juice up to -250 or so in non-parlays, but I have to really be feeling the favorite. I'm not sure if either one of those two matches qualify with me enough to play them. Jaziri and Phau seem like plausible plays too, but again, I'm just not sure enough unless something new hits me as the day rolls on.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-08-12, 08:19 AM

Shameful performance by Querrey yesterday. Guy is completely lost right now. I thought this was an excellent tourney for him to gain confidence and thought he'd at least be in the mix for the final.

Semper Fidelis · 02-08-12, 08:48 AM

Hello there guys. For what it's worth, danny rumray is on Groth as well, and he seems to be a halfway decent tennis capper. Hope this info helps!

EdwardHaney · 02-08-12, 08:57 AM

Lepchenko +150 over McHale (1 Unit)

McHale had some emotional wins in Fed Cup play, now comes to France to take on a different challenge. It would be easier to fade her if the Fed Cup matches would have been slightly more grueling physically, but either way, they had to take something out of her mentally. She would have to be on the potential fade list this week before even knowing who her opponent is. Well, obviously we do know who it is, it's Lepchenko. Lepchenko is coming into the main draw as a Lucky Loser. She's already won a couple of matches here, and now sees new life. To make things even better, she sees an opponent that she has had a hold on in past encounters. Her eyes should be wide open at this opportunity and she's even gotten to rest now for a couple of days in the same location. McHale may never lose to Lepchenko again after today but who cares. This one may not be the easy stroll in the park I have been getting lately, but it's absolutely worth a stab. I don't have it in me to pass this one over.

EdwardHaney · 02-08-12, 11:25 AM

The McHale/Lepchenko match was about as good as you can expect from a 1st Round women's side court match at a weak event. I don't get to tune in to many of these more under-the-radar matches but that one was pretty good I'm glad I watched it. Lepchenko missed an opportunity to consolidate a break late in the 2nd, but also played better than I expected she would overall. She made some pretty good adjustments during the match, and she really gave us a chance to win. McHale was on the ropes for about the last 40 minutes of the match. The momentum wanted to turn to Lepchenko so many times but it just couldn't when McHale had 3 balls hit the net and die in fair territory late in the 2nd set at big moments (also had one late in the 1st set at a huge moment). She's a bit lucky to be out of that match successfully, because she was about to get slapped around in the 3rd set, it just didn't get there. That's how it goes.

EdwardHaney · 02-12-12, 03:13 PM

Overall: 5-1 (+5.55 Units)
Favorites : 3-0 (+3.00 Units)
Underdogs: 2-1 (+2.55 Units)

Anybody have any opinions on Raonic vs Tsonga? I had my mind set on Roanic, then came all the way around and had my mind set on Tsonga. Now I'm starting to think that there may be some value in Roanic again. I have a couple more hours to try and talk myself into one of these guys. I think my issue is that I don't know how much emphasis to put on home court advantage in this match. Roanic is freaking tough as nails.

EdwardHaney · 02-12-12, 03:26 PM

I think I've officially ruled out a play on Tsonga. He could very well win, but I would hate to lose laying that much juice against an opponent who has a favorable environment. There's better places to lay juice than this. So I'm either taking a shot on Roanic or letting this one pass me by. I'll see if I still feel it closer to start time.

EdwardHaney · 02-12-12, 04:28 PM

Raonic is out, Dancevic is in.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-12-12, 04:40 PM

Tough break for Canada because Dancevic is going to get smoked. Doubles match might have shown him with the issues before today as his serve was not ripping off the way it was against Benneteau. Hopefully it doesn't effect him going into San Jose, but that surely opens that tournament up regardless with yet another injury question.

EdwardHaney · 02-13-12, 12:31 AM

Fischer -200 over Cerreno-Busta (1 unit)

EdwardHaney · 02-13-12, 12:43 AM

Volandri +185 over Montanes (1 Unit)

Welcome to 2012, Filippo.

EDIT: I just edited to add the units. I apologize for no writeups.

EdwardHaney · 02-13-12, 09:32 AM

Fischer connects, keeping me undefeated on posted men's matches. The Volandri line has swung all the way to +230

, I'm not backing off my play, but I couldn't have done a worse job of getting the best value. Apparently everybody thinks Montanes is a sure thing...not so fast.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-13-12, 09:38 AM

Volandri matches are a bitch to bet on. Questionable mofo he is. Good luck with that one. Lots of swings on prices this morning as I think some are just realizing there are ATP matches again this week.

EdwardHaney · 02-13-12, 09:40 AM

I'm not sure how in the world I'm not taking a stab at Galvani +135 over Kravchuk. This looks like the kind of play I would make, but I really hate Challengers and have already pushed my luck with one earlier today. On the bright side, my restraint has been pretty good lately and here's another one that I'll let pass, more than likely. Diddo for Grigelis -125 over Sousa. If I had any confidence in my Challenger ability these would be plays. I'm working to get better on these, until then I'm okay with not killing myself trying

EaglesPhan36 · 02-13-12, 09:44 AM

A lot of these early Challengers are tough to gauge because so many of these guys have hardly played any tennis. Trying not to get too involved in those this week because of the heavier ATP schedule compared to last week. I like Challengers, but gotta pick your spots for sure.

EdwardHaney · 02-13-12, 10:04 AM

Riba +130 over Mello

This is a toss up as far as I'm concerned, if not a case of the cliche "wrong guy favored". Riba had the misfortune of running into Gonzalez in the first round last week in Chile. He's definitely more solid at this point in his career than Mello. I know it's in Brazil and conventional wisdom would tell you Mello is due for a win, and this would be a pretty good spot to get it. But laying the -170 or whatever would be just silly. For starters, Riba didn't play that poorly last week. He also didn't come to South America to just be a lame duck. I like this spot for Riba, I had him when I filled out my bracket and I'm not backing off now. This one could be tight, but I believe I'm doing the correct thing.

It's inevitable that I'm going to finally put up some losers (probably as soon as today with the amount of plays I'm going to make) but where there's value, there's value. All I can do is get my money in in good spots and let the cards fall as they may. Good luck to all!