Day 9 picks

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  • gregm
    SBR MVP
    • 03-14-11
    • 3535

    #1
    Day 9 picks
    YTD 36-29 +9.28 Gave a little bit back yesterday.

    Federer -2.5 sets +165 risk 2 These h2h stats and hard court stats on the players I was looking at last night really dont provide alot of insight into this match considering most of the h2h matches took place before Del Potros wrist injury. Fed has the upper hand 7-2 in these matchups, but most people remember Del Potro taking Fed to 5 sets at the French and beating him at the US Open and I guess some people are taking a punt on Del Potro being back in form.

    I just dont see how you can judge Del Potros return from his performances here at the Open or to end last year. Del Potro has only played Lu, Kavcic, and Mannarino here at the Aussie, and while I agree he looked awesome against Kohli , this was Kohlschreiber we are talking about, not Roger Federer. Del Potro lost to Baghdatis in Sydney in the quarterfinals to start the year and really didnt do much last year after his loss to Federer in Cincinnati.

    Last year Federer crushed Del Potro on the hard courts in Cincinnati, and Feds serve was firing on all cylinders. Federer only faced one break the whole match, getting 75% of his first serves in. Del Potro certainly won't be serving as bad as he did last year, but if Del Potro has any chance it will be have to be from his power on groundstrokes and that cross court forehand. If Del Potro can get that powerful cross court forehand moving Fed around and with Federers backhand certainly erratic at times, Del Potro may have a good chance to open up the court.

    Looking at hard court stats with a guy like Federer is really pointless, they are just phenomenal over the years. I am mainly looking at Federers recent form and he is probably playing as well as anyone on the tour right now, finishing up last year in dominant fashion winning in Basel, Paris and London. He has looked awesome here so far, facing tougher opponents than Del Potro has and demolishing Tomic and Karlovic. Fed hasnt dropped a set here yet. If Federer is serving well, I just dont see Del Potro having a chance here.

    Nadal -2.5 sets +140 risk 1 Nadals serve has been his achilles heel at times lately, he has moved to a heavier racquet, but he still just doesnt have much on these serves. Rafas injuries are always a concern and he should be taped up, but like Ferrer, you know when you put money on Nadal he is going to fight.

    I dont know how Berdych handles the fallout and crowd hostility from the Almagro match but looking at the stats and h2h here isnt real comforting if you are thinking of taking Berdych here, even with the handicap. Berdychs recent form is impressive, he played well to end last year and he has had much tougher tests here at the Aussie than Nadal has. I just cant go against Nadal with these past numbers between the two.

    Clijsters +110 risk 1
  • BlurredOut
    SBR Sharp
    • 01-22-12
    • 430

    #2
    why Clijsters? just curious. have Wozniacki in a parlay with Sharapova (won) and Nadal
    Comment
    • gregm
      SBR MVP
      • 03-14-11
      • 3535

      #3
      I really dont feel strong about that Clijsters play at all but in this tournament at this price, I am going to take her. I looked into the status of her ankle injury this morning and found a few articles on her

      .http://www.smh.com.au/sport/tennis/c...123-1qdy0.html

      This was an article posted in mens tennisforum from a belgian newspaper. http://www.tennisforum.com/showthrea...451541&page=11

      Here are some quotes from Kim right after the ankle injury:

      “It’s only the first hour since I’m done. I’m taped already and I was fully covered in the ice bath for the ankle and everything,” she said.
      “I have the best people around me to take care of me and to make sure that this is hopefully not going to get any worse than it is now.
      “That’s why I’m sitting here with my leg up, to try and keep the swelling down as much as possible. We will see.”
      Clijsters admitted she had briefly considered pulling out when she suffered the injury.
      “It definitely crossed my mind at some point (to pull out) but I knew if I could just try to let the medication sink in, or if I could get through the first 20 minutes, half-hour, I think the pain would go away a little bit and then maybe with the adrenaline I could just fly through it,” she said.


      I am just looking at motivation here for Aussie Kim at her last Australian open and I just like Kims style of play so much more than moonballs and defensive play, she is so much stronger and more aggressive than Wozniacki. Clijsters h2h matches with Woz may be a little misleading though, Wozniacki had her chances in that US open match in 2009 and was actually leading in the first set with a great chance to go up 5-2 in the first set. Woz looked pretty good against Jankovic but she had her moments on serve in that second set, and Jankovic was just all over the place with her shots.

      I think Wozniacki has the best chance if Kim is not fully mobile and can move her around the court, if Kim is really 100% then Wozniacki is in trouble, she just hasnt beaten these kinds of players in her career yet.

      I was going on about how great it is to bet on somebody like a Ferrer or Nadal who you know will never retire unless they are just physically not capable of continuing. Thats the bad thing about Kim, she has so much spirit and loves this event, she isn't going to retire during the match. I took this wager at bookmaker where the match has to be completed for the wager to stand. Sometimes it would be nice if people quit during a match, but I just dont see Kim doing that here during this match. She wont play if she cant go the distance.
      Comment
      • ha1ogen
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 06-16-10
        • 528

        #4
        after an injury like that, you wont necessary feel it immediately, but the following day it will swell like a bitch. her movement is going to be hampered for sure, might have to take woz as much as i hate her
        Comment
        • EaglesPhan36
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 12-06-06
          • 71662

          #5
          I'm on Clijsters as well. I'll take her mental strength over Wozniacki any day of the week. Obviously it's all guess work as to where her ankle is at, but that they haven't seem overly concerned with giving her more scans to assess any big damage to it - makes me feel like it is something she will just need to manage and play through as the match wears on. If there is one person in WTA that I trust to know how to do that, Kim is the one.
          Comment
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