Easy to say now, but dude WTF were you thinking playing -900 on an NBA team on the road? I hope you win for your sake, but the reason these type of parlays don't work for team sports is there's too many variables.
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i was hoping it wouldn't come to this but the Wiz may win their 2nd game of the year....Comment -
sorry to see it go out this way....lesson learned. Stick to tennis. its the aussie open ml parlay thread. good luck next time.Comment -
I'd think money management should be the lesson. To me it's easier to win these parlays by mixing in different sports.Comment -
Beagle - I'm sure jsmith is not risking rent money here, each major he employs a strategy of parlaying a whole heap of favs throughout the tournament - I do it too and it's a ton of fun. It's high risk high return - even if you treat sports strictly as an investment many of us like to mix our "portfolio" with a range of different strategies.
That said - putting any NBA team in a parlay at those odds is a mistake - just like NFL "on any given Sunday" any team can beat any other team, particularly when it's home court factored in. With tennis it's not like that - someone like a Chela or a Mello will never, ever beat a Djokovic or a Federer - unless there's an injury. So the risk you have to figure out is injury related and that's it - i.e. much less variables.
So far I'm still "alive" in this tournament with my parlays, I just don't post them on here as I find it jinxes myself.
E.g. Today I still need Cibulkova, Kvitova, Djokovic, Bartoli to come through and I'd be 5 times my starting money - which I could easily lose by tomorrow.
I do feel for jsmith as I know the feeling of putting in a play in these parlays that you regret - better luck with the strategy next slam.Comment -
I know what the strategy is. I know he's putting his whole bankroll at risk to win big at the grand slams. I just don't think it works to do one big parlay each day. If you're using 5dimes which he is, then just do a shit load of $50 open parlays with like 8 spots mixing in the plays you like. This protects you from going bust if there is an upset like with Fish yesterday. And yes I know Fish is not the kind of player you should ever go big on. But it was definately tempting to yesterday after he looked good in his 1st round match and the opponent he was facing.Comment -
wat a disaster, i dunno wat i was thinking with the thunder tonite
the wizards picked the worst possible time to resemble an nba squad tonite, at my expenseComment -
last kibbbles and bits
Open 6 Team Parlay
$250.00 to win $300.84
Andy Roddick -350* vs Lleyton Hewitt
B.Bryan/M.Bryan -1000* vs J.Erlich/A.Ram
M.Llodra/N.Zimonjic -1000* vs J.Kerr/D.Young
Svetlana Kuznetsova -1020* vs Sloane Stephens
Maria Kirilenko -345* vs Aleksandra WozniakComment -
Yes, spreading across multiple parlays does minimise risk but also minimises returns - one parlay gives you the best possible return, BUT you're right that you still have to choose your plays very carefully. It's actually a good capping process for me, look at all the recent matches for a player in the last 24 months, on the surface, against opponents in the top 20, top 50. Who have they lost to and why? And - most importantly - do they have any injury concerns? It's the last one that should have ruled a play on Fish.Comment -
Good to see you're still in the game at least jsmith
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wat an unlucky break with roddick .......
he was gonna beat hewitt with ease, just as i thoughtComment -
So did you bust out already?Comment -
Bummer your Roddick leg wasn't a cancel on retire deal.
Hard way to bust out.
Oh well, only a few months until the French..Comment -
Just asking a question .... because if I'm correct I think this is the 3rd straight Slam where he went broke with this strategy. I think people need to see how difficult it really is to win with these huge chalk parlays. People think it's easy money in Slams to bet big favorites, but rarely are you going to get through the first 3-4 rounds making money if you're doing 8-10 selection parlays.Comment -
Think that's 0-5 for the effort actually. Posted here anyway.
Still, he only needs to crack one in about ten slams to make a profit most likely. In fact maybe 1 in 20 even.
I think (hope) he will crack a nice size score on one of these eventually..Comment -
Actually, no, it was not just "asking a question", you could have easily have found out where he was at by reading the earlier posts, you were just being a smug little pri.ck because he lost. Not that I'm surprised - this is modus operandi for these forums.
Whilst I respect that you watch a lot of tennis, you are a losing capper who doesn't keep a record (for good reason), and you can't even afford to bet more than lunch money on any given game, so don't start pretending you are teaching us "how difficult it really is" as if you are some seasoned professional at this game. You're not, you are an amateur - like the rest of us.
I have done very successfully from heavy chalk parlays in selective situations - i.e. slams and masters - and this is a high risk high reward strategy that only needs to pay off once every 2 to 3 years to be profitable. If that's not your game, then so be it; but when I see a douche comment I call a spade a spade.Comment -
Sorry if I offended anyone, sheesh. I was asking a question because it's tough to keep track of all the parlays that he's made and I honestly did not know if he had bottomed out or not just by glancing. Knew he took a hit by adding some NBA play, but was uncertain of the balance.
Take a chill pill.
I don't think there's ever been a post or thread I have made where I claim to be a professional dude. I win some. I lose many. I don't proclaim to be some great gambler. I do think this thread should serve a purpose though as to how to or not to do this sort of thing.
I think your term selectivity is very key. Perhaps he made too many parlays to begin with and did not make enough "selective" plays.
I'm guessing this project is over from reading now, but I did not know before hand, so excuse me for being stupid.
And I don't bet my lunch money, I'd be starving.
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When someone says, "So did you bust out already?", and then acts all like they were just asking an innocent question, didn't read the posts, etc, etc my BS detector starts beeping really loudly, kind of like when politicians are being interviewed.
If you wanted to really know where he was at you'd ask, "Did the parlay work out?" or "Where you at for this slam?", something like that.
Anyway - you add a lot to the forum so I'll stop busting your balls now.Comment -
i lost, but it was from an nba play, not tennisComment
