How's everyone doing? Hopefully the weeks between the French Open and Wimbledon didn't do anyone harm. Realized there were some upsets in there and that's once again due to player's not wanting to go all out and jeopardize their big payday at Wimbledon. I was surprised when I saw that Federer was the favorite here this year but then after I dug a bit deeper I realized why that was the case. The public thinks Federer is back and ready to win since he beat Djokovic at the French Open and I agree that it is possible but I just can't see him beating Rafa in the final here given their head to head in their careers. Nadal will probably face Del Potro in the fourth round and that is the other reason why Rafa's outrights are greater then Federer's. I have to admit that Del Potro worries me a bit here BUT he still is trying to regain his form so I favor Rafa to advance in that match. In the quarter finals Nadal will probably face Berdych but that is if Tomas even get's there. How many times have we been expecting Berdych to make a run and he loses in the first or second round? He can't be trusted so to think that Rafa may play him in the quarterfinals is a bit to much forward thinking at this point. The other side of Rafa's draw has a quarterfinal match between Murray probably and either Roddick or Monfils. Roddick isn't 100% yet but has had some good results on grass since coming back. Murray will probably beat either of these players so I guess it doesn't really matter who he faces in the quarterfinals. I think the outright price for Rafa at +275 is a really good bet for this tournament. Don't pay much attention to his loss in London since he was surely saving himself for Wimbledon.
On the other side of the draw we have Federer, Djokovic, Ferrer and Soderling. I think the fourth round match between Ferrer and Tsonga will be a long match which will leave the winner easy pickings for Federer in the quarterfinals. There really isn't much standing in between Roger and the Semifinals. Djokovic also has a very easy draw in which he will probably play Soderling in the quarterfinals. Djokovic has owned Soderling in their careers with a 6-1 mark and I see pretty much the same result happening here. This will probably set up a Semifinal match between Djokovic and Federer and it's going to be another tight match between the two. Federer's greatness on grass makes one lean towards him but if I told you that I will give you Federer at +230 odds to win the championship at this point or Djokovic at +400 odds to win the championship who would you take? This match is to close to call to justify that much of a discrepancy in odds, even with Djokovic's level on grass as nothing to special. If you want to take someone from this portion of the draw go with the value and take Djokovic at +400 odds.
With all of this being said I am going to take only one outright for Wimbledon this year and that is Rafael Nadal. Have been riding him for years as all of you know and he rarely lets me down. Right now you can get +275 odds for Rafa to win the tournament and I think this is the best bet of the "big 3".
Rafael Nadal +275
Will have a look at the first round matchups and post some more plays later on tonight. Just wanted to get this outright out there. Best of luck everyone
On the other side of the draw we have Federer, Djokovic, Ferrer and Soderling. I think the fourth round match between Ferrer and Tsonga will be a long match which will leave the winner easy pickings for Federer in the quarterfinals. There really isn't much standing in between Roger and the Semifinals. Djokovic also has a very easy draw in which he will probably play Soderling in the quarterfinals. Djokovic has owned Soderling in their careers with a 6-1 mark and I see pretty much the same result happening here. This will probably set up a Semifinal match between Djokovic and Federer and it's going to be another tight match between the two. Federer's greatness on grass makes one lean towards him but if I told you that I will give you Federer at +230 odds to win the championship at this point or Djokovic at +400 odds to win the championship who would you take? This match is to close to call to justify that much of a discrepancy in odds, even with Djokovic's level on grass as nothing to special. If you want to take someone from this portion of the draw go with the value and take Djokovic at +400 odds.
With all of this being said I am going to take only one outright for Wimbledon this year and that is Rafael Nadal. Have been riding him for years as all of you know and he rarely lets me down. Right now you can get +275 odds for Rafa to win the tournament and I think this is the best bet of the "big 3".
Rafael Nadal +275
Will have a look at the first round matchups and post some more plays later on tonight. Just wanted to get this outright out there. Best of luck everyone
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