Stacocakes French Open thread

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  • Stacocakes
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 04-10-08
    • 7126

    #1
    Stacocakes French Open thread
    How's everyone doing? Hopefully you guys have all signed up for the SBR French Open contest. I just completed the men's portion of the tournament and am pretty much exhausted from that so I am not going to be doing much of a write-up for this French Open. I've already got two men's outrights locked in for the French Open but the women's draw is just so wide open that I have decided to pass on a women's outright all together.

    Men's outright

    Nadal +110

    The one good thing about Djokovic beating down Nadal the last month is that Rafa's outright odd's for the French Open are plus money. Very nice to see. I remember in previous years his outrights were anywhere from -200 to -300 to win the French Open so getting him at plus money at this time sounds good to me. I was a bit to fast to lock in these odds at +110 because they did go to +122 before the draw came out so I wish I had waited just a bit but oh well. Rafa's draw has some decent player's in it but they aren't in their best form right now. Isner should be an easy first round opponent and then Giraldo,Davydenko,Verdasco and then probably Soderling. Yikes. Well Rafa is the king of clay so he will find a way to get to the finals. I'm really hoping that Djokovic get's knocked off before the final's but that probably won't happen. Take the plus odds here and take your chances with Nadal beating Djokovic in a best of five match.


    Federer +1750

    I put a small $50 play on this for shits and giggles. Getting the best tennis player ever at +1750 to win a tournament is worth a shot. If he did end up winning this tournament and I had passed up these odds I would want to jump off a bridge. He was +2100 or so last week and I wish I had grabbed him at that price but again I will live here. He has a really easy draw which is why I figured I would take a shot. Lopez, tipsarevic, Wawrinka, Ferrer(May be tough). Of course if he gets through all of these players he will most likely play Djokovic in the semi's and that match would definately be in Djokovic's favor but anything is possible. Watch Roger lose in the first round to make me look like a moron here haha.



    Like I said before I am going to be passing on the women's outrights for this tournament since it's to much of a toss up.

    Best of luck the next couple of weeks guys. Look forward to talking tennis with you all again.
  • MUHerd37
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 10-23-09
    • 12816

    #2
    About time man. 2.5 hours until the start! Let's get this!
    Comment
    • Stacocakes
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 04-10-08
      • 7126

      #3
      Added play

      Hewitt +225

      Hewitt hasn't played on clay court yet this year and I admit that it does make me a bit nervous. Montanes on the other hand has played quite a few matches on clay this season and he has been shit so maybe this nullifies the fact that Hewitt hasn't played clay haha. Hewitt is a fighter and you know he will not go down easy. Taking a shot with him at these odds is definately something that I can't pass up.

      Nothing else is jumping out at me for tonights matches. Will just go with hewitt. Best of luck with your picks guys
      Comment
      • Stacocakes
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 04-10-08
        • 7126

        #4
        MUherd do you have any plays for opening night??
        Comment
        • MUHerd37
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 10-23-09
          • 12816

          #5
          I have several parlays going. Not big ones as usual tho. What do you think about Magdalena Rybarikova at +253? Kuznetsova has been total shit. I can't take Hewitt with ya. Montanes hasn't done that well on clay, but he's been losing to some pretty good clay court players.
          Comment
          • Stacocakes
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 04-10-08
            • 7126

            #6
            I haven't been following the WTA that closely lately so i'm probably not the best person to ask about that match. Rybarikova did retire her last match, do you know if that is serious or not? Just happened last week as well. I would be kinda worried about that. Fading Kuznetsova is never a bad plan though especially when she is at big odds. She likes to disappoint.
            Comment
            • MUHerd37
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 10-23-09
              • 12816

              #7
              She says it was just her hip and it wasn't serious. She retired for "protection measures". She says she's ok.
              Comment
              • shari91
                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                • 02-23-10
                • 32661

                #8
                I really want to take Hewitt but Roche saying this makes me wonder:

                ''The important thing here is to get through without any setbacks and have a good preparation for the grass. Anything here is a bonus.''

                ''Tough match, but it could have been worse,'' Roche said.

                It's almost like Roche is saying that Hewitt's not going to push himself because he doesn't want to jeopardise the grass season and since the main reason I ever take Hewitt as a dog is because he always fights for every point, I'm worried that won't be the case today. I really want to take him though
                Comment
                • MUHerd37
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 10-23-09
                  • 12816

                  #9
                  I'm a little scared for my boy Ferrer today
                  Comment
                  • Enkhbat
                    SBR MVP
                    • 04-18-11
                    • 3145

                    #10
                    Former world No. 1 Lleyton Hewitt has pulled out of his first-round match at Roland Garros against Albert Montanes and will be replaced by France's Marc Gicquel. There is no official reason for the withdrawal yet, but Hewitt underwent foot surgery in March and was attempting to play his fist event since then.

                    Source: Tennis.com
                    Comment
                    • shari91
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 02-23-10
                      • 32661

                      #11
                      Originally posted by MUHerd37
                      I'm a little scared for my boy Ferrer today
                      Don't say that. I just stuck him in a parlay as an after thought
                      Comment
                      • shari91
                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                        • 02-23-10
                        • 32661

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Enkhbat
                        Former world No. 1 Lleyton Hewitt has pulled out of his first-round match at Roland Garros against Albert Montanes and will be replaced by France's Marc Gicquel. There is no official reason for the withdrawal yet, but Hewitt underwent foot surgery in March and was attempting to play his fist event since then. Source: Tennis.com
                        Thanks for that Enkhbat. Makes that decision for me much easier
                        Comment
                        • delpiero7
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 11-24-10
                          • 362

                          #13
                          Originally posted by MUHerd37
                          I'm a little scared for my boy Ferrer today
                          There shouldn't be too much to worry about. Even Roddick has beaten Nemo on clay before.
                          Comment
                          • MUHerd37
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 10-23-09
                            • 12816

                            #14
                            Originally posted by shari91
                            Don't say that. I just stuck him in a parlay as an after thought
                            Originally posted by delpiero7
                            There shouldn't be too much to worry about. Even Roddick has beaten Nemo on clay before.
                            I have him in several parlays. His record isn't good vs Nemo but a couple matches were like 2001. Need Ferrer bad. Did protect myself some tho. It's 5:00 now!!!!!!!
                            Comment
                            • MUHerd37
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 10-23-09
                              • 12816

                              #15
                              Cilic and Stosur are on tv first for me. Need both! Any thoughts on Stakhovsky vs Guez?
                              Comment
                              • delpiero7
                                SBR Sharp
                                • 11-24-10
                                • 362

                                #16
                                Originally posted by MUHerd37
                                I have him in several parlays. His record isn't good vs Nemo but a couple matches were like 2001. Need Ferrer bad. Did protect myself some tho. It's 5:00 now!!!!!!!
                                2001 is irrelevant IMO. Ferrer is an extremely solid top 10 player these days, and a top 5 player on clay. He should have no business even dropping a set, let alone losing to Niemenen, whose level has dropped in the past couple of years.
                                Comment
                                • shari91
                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                  • 02-23-10
                                  • 32661

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by MUHerd37
                                  Cilic and Stosur are on tv first for me. Need both! Any thoughts on Stakhovsky vs Guez?
                                  I need them both as well. I even doubled up on Stosur which is something I rarely do.

                                  I really wanted to take Guez with the handicap but the price kept dropping on it. If Stak plays at his best, then he should have no problem but he's so inconsistent that it was tempting to go for the upset. In the end I just left it alone.
                                  Comment
                                  • delpiero7
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 11-24-10
                                    • 362

                                    #18
                                    [4065] D FERRER -1200
                                    (D FERRER vrs J NIEMINEN)
                                    [4069] K NISHIKORI -470
                                    (K NISHIKORI vrs Y LU)
                                    [4104] G GARCIA LOPEZ -850
                                    (R KENDRICK vrs G GARCIA LOPEZ)
                                    [4524] J GOERGES -500
                                    (M JOHANSSON vrs J GOERGES)
                                    [4532] S STOSUR -850
                                    (I BENESOVA vrs S STOSUR)
                                    [4548] A PAVLYUCHENKOV -560
                                    (Y SHVEDOVA vrs A PAVLYUCHENKOV)
                                    [4556] F PENNETTA -350
                                    (V LEPCHENKO vrs F PENNETTA)

                                    Who loses out of these guys. Trying to give my SBR balance a quick boost - I'm not quite mad enough to stick a chunk of money on so many short priced faves!
                                    Comment
                                    • MUHerd37
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 10-23-09
                                      • 12816

                                      #19
                                      I just put a little on Stakhovsky. Both are Frenchies and Stakhovsky plays against far better competition. I gave him the edge.
                                      Comment
                                      • MUHerd37
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 10-23-09
                                        • 12816

                                        #20
                                        Watch out with Pennetta and Nishikori. Lu always kills me and Pennetta has been terrible. Both should win but shit happens.
                                        Comment
                                        • MUHerd37
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 10-23-09
                                          • 12816

                                          #21
                                          Both Stakhovsky and Cilic broken while serving for the 1st set. Fukkin bastards.
                                          Comment
                                          • MUHerd37
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 10-23-09
                                            • 12816

                                            #22
                                            Cilic is such a choke artist
                                            Comment
                                            • Enkhbat
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 04-18-11
                                              • 3145

                                              #23
                                              Wow Cilic could kill a lot of parlays today, can he come back?
                                              Comment
                                              • MUHerd37
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 10-23-09
                                                • 12816

                                                #24
                                                Cilic doesn't have a chance now. Down 2 sets to 0. Cilic is done. Mentally he's a little bitch. This will just be Hidalgo's 4th career grand slam match win. He won 3 in the French Open in 2006 and that's it. Guy is horrible.
                                                Comment
                                                • Stacocakes
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 04-10-08
                                                  • 7126

                                                  #25
                                                  Wow unreal just seeing this now. Was no indications about Hewitt having an injury so this was surprising. Oh well. At least he didn't play a set and retire.

                                                  Hopefully you guys didn't have Cilic in any parlays. Frustrating player. Plays so well on some days and then on others it looks like he has never played tennis before. I stopped betting on Cilic as a big favorite long ago for this very reason
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Stacocakes
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 04-10-08
                                                    • 7126

                                                    #26
                                                    Eagles nice hit on Kavcic. Gulbis once again shits the bed in a major.Unreal. Believe he lost in the first round of the French Open last year as well after that good streak on clay he had heading into last years French Open. Guy just doesn't care
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Stacocakes
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 04-10-08
                                                      • 7126

                                                      #27
                                                      Price is starting to come around for Federer but his first round match against Lopez Roger was around -600 yesterday which was fairly low considering. Roger isn't the same as he was before but he should be able to beat Lopez. I am sure this was included in many chalk parlays. Line is starting to creep towards -900 now so people are seeing at least some value in the line. I'm personally staying away from it
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Stacocakes
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 04-10-08
                                                        • 7126

                                                        #28
                                                        Pennetta loses the first set
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Stacocakes
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 04-10-08
                                                          • 7126

                                                          #29
                                                          Pennetta loses. Thats why I dont bet much womens tennis
                                                          Comment
                                                          • delpiero7
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 11-24-10
                                                            • 362

                                                            #30
                                                            Pennetta
                                                            Comment
                                                            • EaglesPhan36
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 12-06-06
                                                              • 71662

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by Stacocakes
                                                              Pennetta loses. Thats why I dont bet much womens tennis
                                                              I actually picked Lepchenko to win in Shari's French Open contest, but did not have the balls to pull the trigger with real money. I like your Federer future. It's a good buyout opportunity. The Lopez match I honestly think might be his most difficult just because of how surprisingly well Lopez has played on dirt this year. Best of 5 though, he should be the steadier player. I really hope we get a Ferrer-Federer QF. I think that is one of the most anticipated matches I have listed for my own personal tastes.

                                                              And although I doubt he's healthy enough to push him too hard, if Del Potro shows well in the 1st two rounds and looks close to 100% - I'm salivating over a Djokovic-Del Potro 3rd rounder even though I think I will be disappointed with the quality of it in the end.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • TopGun1
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 05-31-10
                                                                • 123

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                                                                I actually picked Lepchenko to win in Shari's French Open contest, but did not have the balls to pull the trigger with real money. I like your Federer future. It's a good buyout opportunity. The Lopez match I honestly think might be his most difficult just because of how surprisingly well Lopez has played on dirt this year. Best of 5 though, he should be the steadier player. I really hope we get a Ferrer-Federer QF. I think that is one of the most anticipated matches I have listed for my own personal tastes.

                                                                And although I doubt he's healthy enough to push him too hard, if Del Potro shows well in the 1st two rounds and looks close to 100% - I'm salivating over a Djokovic-Del Potro 3rd rounder even though I think I will be disappointed with the quality of it in the end.

                                                                Managed to end up positive today after some random poor early choices.... i did like lepchenko but only ended up with a 1/2 unit on it. She was a good price up against Pennetta who had lost her last 4 matches!

                                                                Staco - I decided to put a little on Feds - that is a generous price, I agree. It's even worth the entertainment value alone and as EP points out, we might be able to hedge later on.

                                                                Good luck to everyone tomorrow, it'll be interesting as Isner/DeBakker/Lopez no mugs against the big three...
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Stacocakes
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 04-10-08
                                                                  • 7126

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Love watching tape delayed tennis on tv right now. Nothing like it

                                                                  Watching Hajek play makes me think that I might have a chance to play on tour as well.Unreal

                                                                  Do you guys like anything for tomorrow?I'm going to check the card once these baseball games are finished
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • beefcake
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 11-26-09
                                                                    • 14029

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Dr. Ivo is the ultimate Wildcard here Staco.. Wouldn't surprise me in the least if he beat Delpo..

                                                                    And I know that Oudin sucks big time but with the way Schiavone has played this year, no way in gods green earth she should be a -1600 fav, defending champ or not..This is all new territory here for her.She never has been the hunted like this EVER, I'm not saying she is going to lode but Oudin +6.5 at + money stands out..
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • EaglesPhan36
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 12-06-06
                                                                      • 71662

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Yeah I am not touching the Karlovic-DelPo match. If healthy, DelPo would beat him in 4 or less. If he's not though, you just don't know. One where I think it only makes sense to watch or take a very small stake on Ivo.
                                                                      Comment
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