[Jeff_Black]

ATP Brisbane International 250, Mens Singles, R2
Miomir Kecmanovic vs Milos Raonic
Total Score: Over 22.5 Games @ 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Miomir Kecmanovic came off some really solid results in Challenger events in 2018, and in 2019 he will look to break into the top 100 for the first time with potentially an entry into the main draw of the Australian Open whether it be through Qualifying or a direct entry. A win here will help immensely and I think he has the tools to make this a competitive match.
He came through in qualifying beating Taro Daniel as well as a seasoned veteran in Leonardo Mayer in his first match which I think is a good prep for him coming into this match.
Hard to tell what to expect of Milos Raonic. He beat Aljaz Bedene who is not a known hard court player and who only won one match in 2018 on hards on the main tour. He can also be pretty inconsistent despite having a playing history here and winning the title a few years back beating Federer.
He also had a pretty disappointing finish to the end of last season on the hard courts losing 4 out of his last 5 matches with a walkover against Federer.
Looking at the numbers it's clear Bedene didn't offer up much of a challenge and I think Kecmanovic will provide more of a challenge in this matchup. My numbers have this closer to 24-25 and I think there is reasonable value taking the over in this match up.

[DavidGoliath5003]

Hey Jeff, good luck for the upcoming season. Raonic could win Brisbane. He loves these conditions

[Jeff_Black]

Hey Jeff, good luck for the upcoming season. Raonic could win Brisbane. He loves these conditions

Thanks! You too!

Total Score: Over 22.5 Games @ 1.952 on Pinnacle

YTD: 0 - 1, (-1.00u)

ATP Brisbane International 250, Mens Singles, R2
Jordan Thompson vs Alex De Minaur
Set Handicap: Alex De Minaur -1.5 Sets @ 2.17 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

I really like everything I've seen from Alex De Minaur. He was relentless in beating Popyrin who did show some life in the backend of the second set but really he was outclassed by De Minaur. He's looked as determined as I've seen, chasing everything, hitting everything back twice as hard and even when he got broken in that second set he broke back immediately.
Jordan Thompson has had some good results in Australia including winning a few Challenger Events himself but the quality of those opponents was not in De Minaur's class IMO.
Aussies and notably playing here in Australia fight hard and don't give up but I don't think that will be enough to give De Minaur enough of a challenge as I'll take the better odds with a straight sets win

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Brisbane International 250, Mens Singles, R2
Andy Murray vs Daniil Medvedev
Moneyline: Andy Murray @ 1.99 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Andy Murray was far from playing great in his match against Duckworth and at times throughout that match, to me he looked a little flat and tired. But I think that performance will make him better for this matchup. Whilst the odds reflect what's happened in 2018 such as Murray's lack of match practice having only really played after Wimbledon and Medvedev having made a surge up the rankings after his good start by winning the Sydney International I like the odds here for Murray to continue his unbeaten run here in Brisbane (11-0).
I don't know if Medvedev can match Murray's practicalities being a lean young player, but if he is to make a dent in this match he will likely have to attack Murray's second serve, which is god awful for a player of his calibre (former world no 1, 3x Slam Champ, 2x Gold Medalist) but Murray is better and stronger off both wingspans including the backhand and forehand.
I'm also hoping the rustiness he showed at times against Duckworth with a few silly errors is cleaned up a bit in this match.

[Capybara]

Good luck, Jeff.

I'm not seeing either of these plays listed at my book. Did they take place already? Am I looking in the wrong place? I do see three men's matches for Brisbane, but neither of the ones you listed.

[kuhndogg8]

Minaur won, Murray lost. Both in straight sets.

[DavidGoliath5003]

Solid job with D’Minaur... wish i saw that play. Murray willtake some time to find his full form (put him on notice for the next 3-6 months) last time it took him a year to be great again following back surgery

[degennn]

Wawa
Raonic
Nishikori

Which one loses?

[degennn]

Also Berdych didnt look amazing today

[Jeff_Black]

I don't know how close I'll abide by my rule but I'm just gonna follow one tournament for each week for the most part. This time around I didn't stay up as late following Pune/Doha but did catch some matches a few days here and there. So maybe in the future plays on the Semis or Final might be in order.

[Jeff_Black]

Solid job with D’Minaur... wish i saw that play. Murray willtake some time to find his full form (put him on notice for the next 3-6 months) last time it took him a year to be great again following back surgery

Yeah that was around +100 or less depending on where you shop by the time the game close so pretty happy to beat the closing price there.

[Jeff_Black]

^As mentioned, loss on Murray, win on De Minaur 2-0

1-2, -0.83u

ATP Brisbane International, Men's Singles, Final
Kei Nishikori vs Daniil Medvedev
Handicap: Kei Nishikori -2.5 @ 2.03 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Obviously had a good chance to look at both players here in Brisbane and I've gone with A price and line that I really like with a player I really think is capable of winning this match.
Medvedev has done a solid job to make the final here but I think mentally he can still look off at times and I can't really trust him in that aspect.
Nishikori has looked pretty solid, moving well and hitting the ball well, not showing his opponents much mercy.
It is ironic considering Medvedev has beaten guys with more experience and yet I'm going with experience again but they've also missed a lot of time with injuries.

[Conqueror]

Jeff,

Nice to see you back.
Don't know what to make of a Nishikori/Medvedev match right now. I like the OVER more than either side. Don't see how either player doesn't win a set here. A 3-setter = OVER.

[Jeff_Black]

You too

Ya both guys have been solid (not dropped a set?) just worried one guy wins like 6-4 6-4 or 7-6 6-3 or something.
Also bit worried about Medvedevs serve being flaky when he's not feeling it. But that said once he gets it goin he could roll through like with Murray/Tsonga

[Jeff_Black]

Jeff,

Nice to see you back.
Don't know what to make of a Nishikori/Medvedev match right now. I like the OVER more than either side. Don't see how either player doesn't win a set here. A 3-setter = OVER.

Good call, Nishikori couldn't finish him off earlier in the set going away from what worked and not taking advantage of all the second serves he was getting and paid the price for it.

[Jeff_Black]

Well I was practically right about Medvedev but though Kei would be way better tonight.

2-2, +0.2u

ATP Sydney International, Men's Singles, R1
Matthew Ebden vs Nicholas Jarry
Money line: Matthew Ebden @ 2.02 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Feel like the wrong player will be favoured, and yes on the outside its for obvious reasons. Ebden always puts in a good effort on home soil and likes playing on hardcourts.
He also played in a better group of players in Ferrer, Zverev and Pouille in the Hopman Cup and I think a guy like Jarry is a significant step down in competition from who he has played.
Jarry beat Haase but lost to Stan in his previous tournament which is ok but not enough to convince me he should be a favourite in this matchup.
I would probably pass if the odds were flipped but I like the price here for a guy I know will give it a crack.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Sydney International 250, Men's Singles, R1
Sam Querrey v Malek Jaziri
Set Handicap: Sam Querrey -1.5 Sets @ 2.20 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Another matchup where the price stood out to me against a far inferior opponent who needed three close sets to beat a local wildcard in Pune before losing comfortably in his next match.
Querrey hasn't played any official matches yet but I think he's here to play more then just one match.
He's not as impressive playin in these Oceania Atlantic tournaments as he is in Europe or America but I honestly don't think the quality of level of play is close between these two players.
Ill trust Querrey behind his serve gets the job done in his first match of the year.

[leetreaper]

Queerboy is regressing year after year, Jaziri or nothing for me.

[Jeff_Black]

Bleh, rain delays and then two voided wagers. So record as profit is the same.

ATP Sydney International 250, R1
Yoshihito Nishioika vs Ryan Harrison
Money line: Ryan Harrison @ 2.26 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Another situation where I think the wrong player is favoured and the odds should be closer. My numbers have Harison rated higher then Nishioika and I liked what I saw from him against Kyrgios. He served well an didn't panic at times when he was down and facing breaks.
I think he'll be hard to crack again against an inferior player and baseline player who may struggle as the match getslonger

[Jeff_Black]

Loss on Harrison. Just a piss poor effort all round. Gave his opponent too many looks on second serve to break and had not threatening at all on the return game. Just have to move on from it.

2-3-2, -0.8u

ATP Sydney International 250, Men's Singles, R1
Jeremy Chardy vs Andreas Seppi
Total Score: Over 22.5 Games @ 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Jeremy Chardy had a good run in Brisbane before making the Semi Finals and Seppi has been less then spectacular so far In 2019.
I don't think there is much of a seperation in their games and I don't trust Chardy so short either. With both guys being fighters I can see a three set match with a tiebreak in between there somewhere.

ATP Sydney International 250, Men's Singles, R1
Francis Tiafoe vs John Millman
Handicap: Francis Tiafoe +2 @ 2.06 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Millman being favoured because he's a fighter and had a good win over Federer at the US Open but he's still a battle and 2-6 since that match all on hardcourts.
Tiafoe was outclassed by better players in his Hopman Cup matches and fell short but showed nice fight and tried hard as well.
I think he was forced to play worse by talented players such as Federer but against someone inferior he should be able to decide the terms on his racquet and make it a more competitive match then the odds indicate.

[leetreaper]

American tennis players

[chargers4222]

I had Harrison too -- bunch of talk last year about how his marriage settled him down, but he's still an idiot, and just doesn't have the wingspan to reach balls that top-level players should reach. Worth noting that Nishioka has looked much improved this year.

[Jeff_Black]

I had Harrison too -- bunch of talk last year about how his marriage settled him down, but he's still an idiot, and just doesn't have the wingspan to reach balls that top-level players should reach. Worth noting that Nishioka has looked much improved this year.

Should have been better on serve too. Just didnt have that same intensity he did in Brisbane for the most part. Being broken being up 40-15 in that second was inexcusable too.
Yeah Nishioika has improved too I remember watching his match against Federer a year ago. But it'll be tough against players who attack the second serve more

[Jeff_Black]

4 - 3 - 2, +1.203u

ATP Sydney International 250, Men's Singles, R1
Alex De Minaur vs Riley Opeika
Set Handicap: Alex De Minaur -1.5 Sets @ 2.10 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Alex De Minaur had a pretty great Brisbane campaign only to be stopped by Jo Wilfried Tsonga who has also done a pretty good job to come back from injury being able to physically outmuscle him and break him on the run. I think he will be better for it in the long run as he gets older and physically better.
Against Opeika here he plays a guy who is good on serve and not much else. So long as he controls things on the return of serve, attack the second serve I think he can outrally him.
Opeika did a nice job making it to the main draw here in Sydney but really his best results were in the US and I don't expect that to be any different today.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Sydney International 250, Men's Singles, R2
Sam Querrey vs Gilles Simon
Moneyline: Gilles Simon @ 2.02 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
Gilles Simon had a good run in Pune where he fell short to Anderson but had been playing well. In comparison to the guy Querrey played, his opponents have been superior and he in my opinion is better on the return of serve. I don't know what to expect of Querrey going forward but at least with Simon I know what I am going to expect based of what I've seen from him in 2019 so far.
Look for a former winner here in Sydney to look to have another good week before the Australian Open, collecting valuable points on the way.

ATP Sydney International 250, Men's Singles, R2
Andrey Rublev vs Yoshihito Nishioka
Handicap: Andrey Rublev -2 @ 1.97 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Not much to say on this one, I think Rublev is far more talented and I expect him to get the job done. Nishioka had a nice win over Harrison, but really Harrison didn't offer much on the return game (2 points or something like that won in the first set lol), couldnt consistently serve, couldn't consistently win points off his second serve and phoned it in uncharacteristically when he got broken in the second set.

ATP Sydney International 250, Men's Singles, R2
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman vs Guillermo Garcia Lopez
Handicap: Guillermo Garcia Lopez +2.5 @ 1.97 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Schwartzman plays his first match of the year and his HC record is really average for a top 20 player. Garcia Lopez had never been a great HC player and whilst in decline he has a match under his belt here with confidence. I think Schwartzman will struggle in his first match in Sydney and his track record is pretty poor here in Australia too aside from a fourth round run last year.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Sydney International 250, Men's Singles, R2
John Millman vs Marton Fuscovics
Handicap: Marton Fuscovics -1.5 @ 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Which I jumped on when I said the odds were better however this will have to suffice.
Millman barely beat Tiafoe who has mental lapses despite having a cold and complaining about dizziness in the heat.
Fuscovics form has been pretty good and in Doha where he took a set off Djokovic so I think he can take advantage of the situation here and win another match here.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Sydney International 250, Men's Singles, QF
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Andreas Seppi
Handicap: Stefanos Tsitsipas -3.5 @ 2.03 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Sydney International 250, Men's Singles, QF
Alex De Minaur vs Jordan Thompson
Handicap: Alex De Minaur -4 @ 2.16 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

5 - 7 - 2, -0.667u

Thankfully been getting good prices for these matches otherwise the deficit would be worse.

ATP Sydney International 250, Men's Singles, QF
Gilles Simon vs John Millman
Handicap: Gilles Simon -1.5 @ 2.06 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[pabonaparte]

Queerboy is regressing year after year, Jaziri or nothing for me.

He's old!

[Jeff_Black]

5 - 8 - 2, -1.667u

ATP Sydney International 250, Men's Singles, SF
Gilles Simon vs Alex De Minaur
Handicap: Gilles Simon +3.5 @ 1.925 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Sydney International 250, Men's Singles, SF
Andreas Seppi vs Diego Sebastian Schwartzman
Handicap: Andreas Seppi +3 @ 2.02 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[nuxx??]

Simon had exhausting 3h match against Millman, in which he barely stood after couple of rallies late in the 3rd set. I wouldnt touch that.

[Jeff_Black]

Jumping on a couple of early ones here

Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Feliciano Lopez vs Jordan Thompson
Handicap: Feliciano Lopez +4 @ 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Grigor Dimitrov vs Janko Tipsarevic
Handicap: Janko Tipsarevic +9.5 @ 1.763 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1.5u play

Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Borna Coric vs Steve Darcis
Handicap: Steve Darcis +7 @ 1.892 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Benoit Paire vs Dominic Thiem
Handicap: Dominic Thiem -5.5 @ 1.90 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Jason Kubler vs Thomas Fabbiano
Handicap: Jason Kubler -1.5 @ 1.961 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Cameron Norrie vs Taylor Harry Fritz
Handicap: Cameron Norrie -1 @ 1.97 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Don_Omarion]

Jumping on a couple of early ones here

Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Feliciano Lopez vs Jordan Thompson
Handicap: Feliciano Lopez +4 @ 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Grigor Dimitrov vs Janko Tipsarevic
Handicap: Janko Tipsarevic +9.5 @ 1.763 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1.5u play

Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Borna Coric vs Steve Darcis
Handicap: Steve Darcis +7 @ 1.892 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Benoit Paire vs Dominic Thiem
Handicap: Dominic Thiem -5.5 @ 1.90 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Jason Kubler vs Thomas Fabbiano
Handicap: Jason Kubler -1.5 @ 1.961 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Cameron Norrie vs Taylor Harry Fritz
Handicap: Cameron Norrie -1 @ 1.97 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

BOL Jeff, like Thiem play.

[Jeff_Black]

Thanks, you too!
Will have another proper look at the rest of today's games. Didn't really like the early ones anyway

[Jeff_Black]

Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Kyle Edmund vs Tomas Berdych
Total Score: Over 39.5 Games @ 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Roberto Bautista Agut vs Andy Murray
Set Handicap: Roberto Bautista Agut -2.5 Sets @ 2.21 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Matt Ebden vs Jan Lennard Struff
Handicap: Matt Ebden +3.5 @ 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Yoshihito Nishioka vs Tennys Sandgren
Moneyline: Tennys Sandgren @ 2.03 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Gael Monfils vs Damir Dzuhmir
Handicap: Gael Monfils -3.5 @ 1.917 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Australian Open, Mens Singles, R1
Andrey Rublev vs Mackenzie McDonald
Total Score: Over 36.5 @ 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play