Djokovic +650 2 units to win 13 units
1. I really like his draw. I don’t see him losing to anyone before the SF. There he’ll likely play Verdasco, and I think he’ll be the clear favorite in that match. Basically this is the easiest path to the finals of any 1000-level tourney he’ll see all year.
2. I know his form hasn’t been in the best form in recent weeks, but I think he’ll be good for this tourney. Since he lost early in Miami, he’s had extra time to rest and prepare for the clay season. This tournament will also be cool so the heat won’t be a problem.
3. Nadal is vulnerable and IMO even on clay. It seems that he starts well in these tournaments this year and then fizzles out late. Even in these matches he’s winning, he’s having to fend off much more break point attempts than 2 years ago and I don’t think he’s quite as fast as he was then either. After an easy 2nd round match, he’ll have to play Monaco, then either JCF or Almagro, and then either Ferrer or Murray. All of these guys are tough on clay and if Nadal is having a real off day, I wouldn’t be shocked if he lost to any of them. Of course he could still make the finals even at 80% and only has to win 5 matches to win the tourney, but I really don’t think it’s a given like it would have been the last several years.
4. Djokovic has a lot of points to defend. Last year during these few months he was really the second best player in the world and did great early in the clay court season. If he doesn’t do well in these tournaments he’ll lose his No. 2 spot and maybe fall even further.
All this adds up to great value in Djokovic. The draw is stacked against Nadal, as most of the dangerous clay courters are on his side. He could lose to any of them if he is less than 80%, or his tendonitis could start acting up at any time. I’ll gladly Djokovic who has an easier draw at these odds.
1. I really like his draw. I don’t see him losing to anyone before the SF. There he’ll likely play Verdasco, and I think he’ll be the clear favorite in that match. Basically this is the easiest path to the finals of any 1000-level tourney he’ll see all year.
2. I know his form hasn’t been in the best form in recent weeks, but I think he’ll be good for this tourney. Since he lost early in Miami, he’s had extra time to rest and prepare for the clay season. This tournament will also be cool so the heat won’t be a problem.
3. Nadal is vulnerable and IMO even on clay. It seems that he starts well in these tournaments this year and then fizzles out late. Even in these matches he’s winning, he’s having to fend off much more break point attempts than 2 years ago and I don’t think he’s quite as fast as he was then either. After an easy 2nd round match, he’ll have to play Monaco, then either JCF or Almagro, and then either Ferrer or Murray. All of these guys are tough on clay and if Nadal is having a real off day, I wouldn’t be shocked if he lost to any of them. Of course he could still make the finals even at 80% and only has to win 5 matches to win the tourney, but I really don’t think it’s a given like it would have been the last several years.
4. Djokovic has a lot of points to defend. Last year during these few months he was really the second best player in the world and did great early in the clay court season. If he doesn’t do well in these tournaments he’ll lose his No. 2 spot and maybe fall even further.
All this adds up to great value in Djokovic. The draw is stacked against Nadal, as most of the dangerous clay courters are on his side. He could lose to any of them if he is less than 80%, or his tendonitis could start acting up at any time. I’ll gladly Djokovic who has an easier draw at these odds.