Hope the good doctor wins 7-6 7-6, Im gonna nibble on Dan @+2.5.Originally Posted by cryptocap
Far from auto! Its just my angle......and it might be wrong ...flip the coin
Goodluck everyone...very small stake on this anyways but rdy to enjoy the match!
lol 3-0 in like 5 minutes...boy
I joined you on that one, cheers.Hope the good doctor wins 7-6 7-6, Im gonna nibble on Dan @+2.5.
Last night was slightly up and down but considering I lost two stakes in one play, I did okay to pull back the losses. To remind you all, before I started this week, I was about +17 units for the year. So even though this week is a minor loss, I've been in these positions before (case in point, Wimbledon THIS year) and pulled it back. It's all long term.
ATP BASTAD
- Taro Daniel to WIN - $1.9 - HALF STAKE
- Brown/Bedene OVER 22.5 - $1.9 - HALF STAKE - (POSTED THIS TOO LATE BUT IT WAS GOING TO BE A PLAY)
The half stakes reflect the confidence level with this one. Daniel impressed me with a thumping win over Horatio Zeballos in the first round, but Zeballos has played A LOT of tennis recently and I'm wondering if the poor performance is due to tiredness. Regardless, I'm prepared to give him another go against Elias, who is known for competing more on the challenger circuit than the ATP, like Daniel does.
Brown plays an exciting brand of tennis, and we scored on his line in his last match against Munoz De La Nava. +2.5 or +3 is a really awkward line, in that I don't want to lay it and I don't want to back it. I think there is some value in the overs though, because Bedene is a handy clay player on the challenger circuit, and Brown is playing a good game at the moment. I expect Bedene to win, but Brown should keep it close.
ATP HAMBURG
- Garcia-Lopez -4.5 games - $1.72 - ONE STAKE
- Wessels/Klizan UNDER 19.5 - $1.72 (WILLIAM HILL) - TWO STAKES
- Medvedev to WIN - $1.9 - TWO STAKES
The first two plays are taking good players to beat average ones. Zemlja is a challenger player, plain and simple. He occasionally shows flashes of birlliance, but he's solid and not much else. GL is a much more solid player and isn't the sort of guy to take a match easy, because he's hovering around 50 on the rankings himself.
Verrryyyyy nice line on the Wessels match, and that's why I'm hitting it with two stakes. Klizan should be romping this one in, and the bookies clearly think that as well, with lines like -6.5 and under 17.5 on some sites.
Up until about two months ago, I had Medvedev pegged as a fairly average player. I've now changed my mind. He's gone from competing with guys on the challenger tour to BEATING guys on the challenger tour to competing with guys on the ATP tour and now BEATING guys on the ATP tour. He's won four of his last five, seven of his last ten and 10 of his last 14 on clay. He's already BEATEN GT this year, in straight sets. I think the books are getting swayed by the fact that GT beated Paire, but I watched that match and the reason he won was because Paire probably hit about 50 unforced errors per set.
ATP NEWPORT
- Marco Chiudinelli +3 games - $1.9 (PINNACLE) - HALF STAKE
- Mannarino -2.5 games - $2 - TWO STAKES
Not as confident about Chiudinelli as I was about Dancevic, but the thought process is the same.
Mannarino smashed Groth 6-2 6-2 a few weeks ago, and has been hugely impressive on grass this year. I'm backing him to keep up the form.
WTA BUCHAREST
- Errani -4 games - $1.9 - HALF STAKE
Apart from a few matches here and there, Errani has largely had a let down of a year. BUT, last year she made the final here. That means she has ranking points to defend, and quite a lot of them. Thus, if there was ever a time for her to stand up, it'd be now.
WTA GSTAAD
- Bacsinsky -5.5 games - $1.83 - ONE STAKE
Not a lot to say here - home country, favourite surface and average opponent. Hoping she lives up to her billing.
CHALLENGER POZNAN
- Geens/Garin OVER 19.5 games - $2 - HALF STAKE
Kamke is a really earnest player. He's a guy that sticks around the baseline, and thus cuts your time off with the returns. He's one of my go to guys, and Geens beat him. That impressed me quite a bit, and so even though Garin is in form, I'm going to take the risk of the overs and back in Geens' form.
to clarify the brown/bedene one, I will NOT be including it in my records but i'd written the blurb when it started so I may as well leave it to see if I was right or not.
nice write-up. I agree on Taro Daniel, GG Lopez, Medvedev and Chiudinelli....
I slightly disagree on Klizan as I think he has yet to recover his best days form and Local German may put up his game....but under can still happen....
I consider taking + 6 games.
And I think Mannarino will loose today just because it's grass and Groth has a little revenge spot. I also believe Mannarino is slowly drifting away from his superb form....at least it showed against Duckworth where he barely got through.
Ladies and challengers I dont follow.
So GL!
Nice analysis with your picks.. it seems you put lot of heart and mind into it..
Daniel doesn't seem to be the obvious choice as a winner imo.. Elias has had a good run on clay like Mestre and Turin Challengers to name a few.. Nothing flashy abt Daniel though apart from the fact that he beat the man in form Zabellos ..
wow, was I wrong on picking against Klizan....
Thanks for the feedback!nice write-up. I agree on Taro Daniel, GG Lopez, Medvedev and Chiudinelli....
I slightly disagree on Klizan as I think he has yet to recover his best days form and Local German may put up his game....but under can still happen....
I consider taking + 6 games.
And I think Mannarino will loose today just because it's grass and Groth has a little revenge spot. I also believe Mannarino is slowly drifting away from his superb form....at least it showed against Duckworth where he barely got through.
Ladies and challengers I dont follow.
So GL!
It's a little hard to respond to Klizan now, so I won't haha.
Yes, Mannarino got taken to a third set tiebreak, but he was up 5-2 in the last set. If he held serve, he would have pushed his -4 line. I think he'll have the mental advantage, but it is possible Groth will be fired up.
Glad you got something out of it.Nice analysis with your picks.. it seems you put lot of heart and mind into it..
Daniel doesn't seem to be the obvious choice as a winner imo.. Elias has had a good run on clay like Mestre and Turin Challengers to name a few.. Nothing flashy abt Daniel though apart from the fact that he beat the man in form Zabellos ..
To be fair, he's not an 'obvious' choice, because he is priced at evens, but I do think he's slightly better. I take Elias a lot against other challenger players, but it seems that Daniel competes more at ATP level events so I'm hoping he's learnt from that.
Marco Chiudinelli
...he is higher rank than Dancevic...better h2h vs Karlovic yet is a huge dog...
Dr. Ivo out till tomorrow morning it seems...glad I didnt lock my wager in
Dancevic playing better right now thoughMarco Chiudinelli
...he is higher rank than Dancevic...better h2h vs Karlovic yet is a huge dog...
Profit last night... not sure how much because I haven't done the sums, but can update that later. Don't really have a lot of time right now
to do write ups, but if I have time later, I'll try and update. Don't count on it though.
ATP BASTAD
- Ramos/Arnaboldi UNDER 20.5 - $1.8 (UNIBET) - ONE STAKE
- Ferrer -4.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE
- Sousa -3 games - $2 - TWO STAKES
ATP HAMBURG
- Kohlscreiber/Olivo - UNDER 19.5 - $1.9 - ONE STAKE
- Klizan/Gimeno-Traver UNDER 21.5 - $1.8 - ONE STAKE
- Klizan -4.5 games - $2 - ONE STAKE
DAVIS CUP WORLD GROUP
- Kyle Edmund to WIN - $1.6 - THREE STAKES
- Juan Monaco to WIN - $2.5 - ONE STAKE
- Tsonga/Rosol UNDER 38.5 - $1.9 (PINNACLE) - ONE STAKE
- Marin Cilic to WIN - $1.6 - THREE STAKES
- Marin Cilic to win 3-0 - $4.5 - HALF STAKE
DAVIS CUP GROUP ONE
- Haase/Rublev OVER 40.5 - $2 (UNIBET) - ONE STAKE
- Gabashvili -3.5 games - $1.9 (UNIBET) - ONE STAKE
DAVIS CUP GROUP TWO
- Ilhan to WIN - $1.9
MULTI
Polansky x Siegemund -3.5 games - $3.7 - HALF STAKE (Challenger Winnipeg, WTA Bucharest)
Cheers!
Last edited by Lightning; 07-15-16 at 01:16 AM.
