Stacocakes BNP Paribas Open Thread

**smitch124** · 03-08-10, 11:54 AM

Well good luck with this, I'm not quite ready to let go of the Australian open, maybe by Wimbledon.

**beefcake** · 03-08-10, 11:55 AM

cant wait man,lets do this..

**Stacocakes** · 03-09-10, 12:14 PM

The women's draw has come out for the tournament. Mens draw will be in a couple of days. Will be back later tonight with some womens futures after I have had a chance to look at the draw.If you guys have anything that you like feel free to let me know

**Jrod124** · 03-09-10, 03:43 PM

GL Stacoackes, I will be along for the ride as well! Lets beat those books!

**Boner_18** · 03-09-10, 04:03 PM

Yeah. Kinda annoyed with the delay of the draw here. Usually they just put it out with empty slots for qualies. Oh well. GL to ya'll.

**Stacocakes** · 03-09-10, 04:20 PM

WOMEN'S DRAW

It's always weird to see a Masters Series event on the women's side that does not include the William's sisters. I am sure most of you know about the 2001 event in which Venus withdrew from her Semifinal match against Serena four minutes before the match was to begin which started an uproar through the crowd that carried on into the final against Kim Clijsters in which Serena was booed throughout the match. Since this day the William's sisters have boycotted the event at Indian Wells and this year will be no exception. What this means is that the futures board will be full of many lively dogs that are just waiting to be cashed.

In women's tennis anything is possible so when you are given some decent odds on a player in the outright market it might be better to just bet the outright market instead of betting on the individual matches. The following players are the women that I feel have the best chance to win this tournament.

Kim Clijsters +410

From an analysis of the draw I have Clijsters pegged to meet Zvonareva in the semifinals which should be a great match. Looking at the head to head record between the two though you might think otherwise because Clijsters is 5-0 lifetime vs Zvonareva though this is misleading since the matches were all during 2006 or earlier when Zvonareva was a completely different player. In order to reach the semifinals Clijsters will have to beat Kleybanova and Kuznetsova. Kleybanova is playing some good tennis having just won the tournament in Kuala Lumpur so this will definately not be a walk in the park for Clijsters. If she is able to beat Kleybanova Kim will face Kuznetsova in the next round. She is 7-1 in 8 career matches vs Kuznetsova but once again this will be a difficult match for Kim.

Justine Henin +340

All that is standing in the way of Justine reaching the quarterfinals are Dulko, Radwanska and Lisicki. Not to much. Of course anything can happen in women's tennis but I can't see Henin losing to any of those players. She is just to good. In the quarters Henin is likely to face Dementieva and that will be a tough match for Henin. The last time they met was in the Australian open where Justine won in 2 sets but they were both very tight and could have gone either way. You never know what you are going to get with Dementieva so if I had to pick a winner of a Henin/Dementieva match I would rather have my money on Henin because you know that she can get it done. I wouldn't mind betting on the Henin outright in this situation but +340 is really not as good as I was hoping it would be. Would probably be a better bet to take Dementieva outrights at +1100 and hope she wins the match against Henin.

Azarenka +800 or Zvonareva +1500

Based on the draws I don't see much in the way of either of these girls meeting in the quarterfinals. Zvonareva will have to defeat Stosur and Ivanovic which she should do and Azarenka has to defeat Wickmayer and Martinez Sanchez which she will probably do as well. As a quarterfinal match I think the match is pretty much a toss up. They have faced eachother 6 times in their careers *not including a walkover match) and Zvonareva won the first four and Azarenka won the last two. If you are wanting to take Zvonareva here the fact that Azarenka has won the last two matches can't be a good thing. Once again as stated before this is womens tennis though and anything is possible so in a match of these two girls I would prefer to take the one that has the best odds and that would be Zvonareva in this instance. Whether or not I like it enough to actually bet on her as an outright though is something I am still debating.

Sharapova +1150 and Wozniacki +1600

I have always had a thing for Sharapova and I hate to say it but it has cost me alot of money. I just have a hard time betting against her because eventhough she plays really bad seemingly all of the time now, she still is one of those players you can count on that will give it her all till the end. Maria will face Dushevina, Zheng and Li before reaching the quarterfinals. Dushevina is coming into this tournament losing four of her last 5 matches so I don't see her as much competition for Maria. Zheng is a career head to head 0-2 vs Maria but she is a player that always seems to play well in the bigger tournaments and cause problems. Na Li is fighting some back injuries currently and is 1-5 lifetime vs Maria so Sharapova should be able to beat her to advance to the quarterfinals. In the quarterfinals she will likely face Caroline Wozniacki. For Wozniacki to reach the quarterfinals she will have to beat Kirilenko, and then the winner of Petrova/Bondarenko. Kirilenko played over her head at the Australian Open and is currently nursing an injury so I don't see her doing much in this tournament. Bondarenko and Petrova is a complete toss up to me but I don't see either of those players defeating Wozniacki at that point. Wozniacki is 0-4 against Sharapova in her career and that is definately a stat to think about. Since Sharapova is in the better form coming into this tournament and has not lost to Wozniacki in the past, I am definately taking Maria to make it to the semifinals.

So with all of this being said, who should one take to win the BNP Paribas? It's a difficult choice but if you are going to bet some outrights you might as well bet someone that has good value. I am going to take one girl from each side of the draw and if they happen to meet up in the finals that would be amazing. I am going to take Maria Sharapova to win at +1150 on one side of the bracket and the defending champion Vera Zvonareva at +1500 on the other side of the bracket.
Best of luck with your outright bets everyone.

**beefcake** · 03-09-10, 07:19 PM

Originally posted by Stacocakes

WOMEN'S DRAW

It's always weird to see a Masters Series event on the women's side that does not include the William's sisters. I am sure most of you know about the 2001 event in which Venus withdrew from her Semifinal match against Serena four minutes before the match was to begin which started an uproar through the crowd that carried on into the final against Kim Clijsters in which Serena was booed throughout the match. Since this day the William's sisters have boycotted the event at Indian Wells and this year will be no exception. What this means is that the futures board will be full of many lively dogs that are just waiting to be cashed.

In women's tennis anything is possible so when you are given some decent odds on a player in the outright market it might be better to just bet the outright market instead of betting on the individual matches. The following players are the women that I feel have the best chance to win this tournament.

Kim Clijsters +410

From an analysis of the draw I have Clijsters pegged to meet Zvonareva in the semifinals which should be a great match. Looking at the head to head record between the two though you might think otherwise because Clijsters is 5-0 lifetime vs Zvonareva though this is misleading since the matches were all during 2006 or earlier when Zvonareva was a completely different player. In order to reach the semifinals Clijsters will have to beat Kleybanova and Kuznetsova. Kleybanova is playing some good tennis having just won the tournament in Kuala Lumpur so this will definately not be a walk in the park for Clijsters. If she is able to beat Kleybanova Kim will face Kuznetsova in the next round. She is 7-1 in 8 career matches vs Kuznetsova but once again this will be a difficult match for Kim.

Justine Henin +340

All that is standing in the way of Justine reaching the quarterfinals are Dulko, Radwanska and Lisicki. Not to much. Of course anything can happen in women's tennis but I can't see Henin losing to any of those players. She is just to good. In the quarters Henin is likely to face Dementieva and that will be a tough match for Henin. The last time they met was in the Australian open where Justine won in 2 sets but they were both very tight and could have gone either way. You never know what you are going to get with Dementieva so if I had to pick a winner of a Henin/Dementieva match I would rather have my money on Henin because you know that she can get it done. I wouldn't mind betting on the Henin outright in this situation but +340 is really not as good as I was hoping it would be. Would probably be a better bet to take Dementieva outrights at +1100 and hope she wins the match against Henin.

Azarenka +800 or Zvonareva +1500

Based on the draws I don't see much in the way of either of these girls meeting in the quarterfinals. Zvonareva will have to defeat Stosur and Ivanovic which she should do and Azarenka has to defeat Wickmayer and Martinez Sanchez which she will probably do as well. As a quarterfinal match I think the match is pretty much a toss up. They have faced eachother 6 times in their careers *not including a walkover match) and Zvonareva won the first four and Azarenka won the last two. If you are wanting to take Zvonareva here the fact that Azarenka has won the last two matches can't be a good thing. Once again as stated before this is womens tennis though and anything is possible so in a match of these two girls I would prefer to take the one that has the best odds and that would be Zvonareva in this instance. Whether or not I like it enough to actually bet on her as an outright though is something I am still debating.

Sharapova +1150 and Wozniacki +1600

I have always had a thing for Sharapova and I hate to say it but it has cost me alot of money. I just have a hard time betting against her because eventhough she plays really bad seemingly all of the time now, she still is one of those players you can count on that will give it her all till the end. Maria will face Dushevina, Zheng and Li before reaching the quarterfinals. Dushevina is coming into this tournament losing four of her last 5 matches so I don't see her as much competition for Maria. Zheng is a career head to head 0-2 vs Maria but she is a player that always seems to play well in the bigger tournaments and cause problems. Na Li is fighting some back injuries currently and is 1-5 lifetime vs Maria so Sharapova should be able to beat her to advance to the quarterfinals. In the quarterfinals she will likely face Caroline Wozniacki. For Wozniacki to reach the quarterfinals she will have to beat Kirilenko, and then the winner of Petrova/Bondarenko. Kirilenko played over her head at the Australian Open and is currently nursing an injury so I don't see her doing much in this tournament. Bondarenko and Petrova is a complete toss up to me but I don't see either of those players defeating Wozniacki at that point. Wozniacki is 0-4 against Sharapova in her career and that is definately a stat to think about. Since Sharapova is in the better form coming into this tournament and has not lost to Wozniacki in the past, I am definately taking Maria to make it to the semifinals.

So with all of this being said, who should one take to win the BNP Paribas? It's a difficult choice but if you are going to bet some outrights you might as well bet someone that has good value. I am going to take one girl from each side of the draw and if they happen to meet up in the finals that would be amazing. I am going to take Maria Sharapova to win at +1150 on one side of the bracket and the defending champion Vera Zvonareva at +1500 on the other side of the bracket.
Best of luck with your outright bets everyone.

How bout Na Li at 33-1 as a darkhorse?

**Stacocakes** · 03-09-10, 08:01 PM

Beefcake, www.matchstat.com mentions that Na Li has a back injury. She has lost her last two matches, the second of those to the 78th ranked player in the world so the back could be an issue.Probably best to stay away though at 33-1 is that ever a bad bet?haha

**Stacocakes** · 03-09-10, 08:03 PM

Was also going to mention to shop around a bit if you want to take Na Li. Betfair currently has her at 42-1

**beefcake** · 03-09-10, 09:33 PM

Wow didnt know about the injury..Thanks alot for that info!
Just figured its hard courts,no venus and serena and Li played so well in Oz making it to the semis there,at those odds looked like alot of value,but with the injury im not touching it.

**RJ89** · 03-09-10, 10:51 PM

Personally, I really like Henin to win this tourney. I think the relatively slow courts will be to her advantage, and I don't see Dementieva or anyone else on her side beating her. I think she is worth a shot even though the odds aren't as good as they could have been.

**Stacocakes** · 03-10-10, 11:52 AM

The main draw for the mens side of the tournament is out today. Will be looking at that and getting bad to you guys later today with some outrights.

Odds are out all over and Henin's odds are starting to move alot. Best I can find for her right now is +296 to win so that is definately a no play for me. Henin is easily the best or second best player in this field so I guess getting a player of that calibre for +296 to win seems like a good play but i'm just taking the other girls that I chose because the potential payout is much greater. I agree though that Henin has the best chance to win this tournament so taking her is not a bad play. I'm going to pass though especially since her odds are diving.

I see Zvonareva at pinnacle outrights at +2528. Brutal. What a horrible line I got on Betfair yesterday. Very rarely do lines come out on Betfair before any of the official lines are released on pinnacle and the odds are worse then the odds you would find on Pinnacle. IN this instance the difference is drastic. I am already locked in with Zvonareva outrights at +1500 and they are currently +2528 on Pinnacle. Not a good way to start the tournament. My Sharapova +1150 odds are still the same though so at least that is good.

**Stacocakes** · 03-10-10, 12:01 PM

Womens plays for the day:

Chakvetadze -154 over Keothavong

Anna's career looked so promising before the break in incident at her house. Since then her career has been in a free fall and it is sad. Anna is 3-0 career vs Keothavong. Chakvetadze won't win the tournament or anything but I like her in this first round match.

Cirstea +228 over Kanepi

Weird line here. Cirstea is the 40th ranked player in the world and Kanepi is the 92nd. The career head to head is 2-2 in this matchup. I am sure the line has to do with the fact that Cirstea has lost 5 matches in a row and that is definately not a good thing coming into this tournament. Sorana is definately worth a chance at these odds in a match that is probably a toss up. Will take it.

Like Dushevina -190 over Dokic but not sure if I am going to pull the trigger. Just wish the odds were a little better on that. Dokic has fallen off the map the last year so Vera should win this match but Dushevina has lost 4 of 5 matches coming in so probably best to just lay off this match all together.

Will be back later with the men's outrights

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-10-10, 12:49 PM

Quick glance at the men's draw, Cilic and Djokovic should be locked in on the bottom portion of that bracket. I kind of like Soderling's chances at what I would guess will be a decent long shot price to win outright. He's in the bracket with Tsonga who still doesn't seem right this year. Then he would get a Murray or Ferrer type that he can beat on hard courts to get to the semis. If Federer gets by Baghdatis, he should coast to the semis. Nadal is a waste of money. He has a tough draw once he gets into the 4th round and beyond.

I'd say two futures for me right now:

Djokovic [easy draw to the QFs]
Soderling [long shot with a chance]

Good to see ya around Staco!

**Boner_18** · 03-10-10, 12:56 PM

My initial reaction to the mens was a look to Isner and Querrey. Take a little of both to make the quarters (obviously I am not a believer in the Nadal recovery) and then have to face Davy or Verdy who have both faltered this year. Just a thought.

**RJ89** · 03-10-10, 02:26 PM

Originally posted by Boner_18

My initial reaction to the mens was a look to Isner and Querrey. Take a little of both to make the quarters (obviously I am not a believer in the Nadal recovery) and then have to face Davy or Verdy who have both faltered this year. Just a thought.

I had similar thoughts, but I think Querrey has a much better shot. The courts are relatively slow and it is supposed to be cold and windy for some of the tournament and I think this will hurt Isner. Querrey also just recently beat Isner in a championship in some tournament, and compund all of that with the fact that odds will probably be better on Querrey, so I believe there will be much more value on him to win.

If Nadal is close to 90% he should destroy Querrey, but his injury looked serious to me, so think a future on Querrey is worth a look.

**Stacocakes** · 03-10-10, 03:14 PM

Hey Eagles.How have you been?
Agree with Djokovic. He has nothing at all to challenge him until the quarterfinals where he will probably meet Cilic. That match should be tough but you still have to favor Djokovic in that match and then he would be facing Davy/Nadal/Verd or Querrey in the semifinals which are all beatable. Definately love DJokovic to come out of this half of the draw.
As far as Soderling I am not really sure. His first matches should be a cakewalk but the match against Tsonga is going to be really tough. Looking at the outrights you can get a much better price if you take Tsonga to advance at this point and that would probably be a better way to go because the Tsonga/Soderling match could really go either way. Very tough call on that match. The winner of that match would face probably Murray and then either Federer or Roddick in the semifinals.
Also agree that Federer has a really easy rode to the quarterfinals and even then if he faces Roddick he should beat him. Problem is that Federer is beatable in these best of three set non-major tournaments so it basically comes down to if Federer wants to win this tournament or not. If he's not into it 100% he will get knocked off like he has been lately at non-majors.
Boner I agree with you that both Querrery or Isner have a good chance to knock off Nadal. Rafa is obviously not at 100% so taking a bet of either of these players to beat Nadal and reach the quarterfinals sounds like a good bet.

**Stacocakes** · 03-10-10, 03:47 PM

MENS DRAW

From analyzing the mens draw for this tournament it seems that one side of the draw is alot top player heavy then the other side. Since this is the case, some players seem to have a way easier time to reach the quarter or semi finals then other players and this will totally factor into the decision on which player to take to win this tournament. I'll seperate the mens draw into quarters and discuss it from that point of view to make things easier to follow.

Quarter 1 - Federer and Roddick
If Federer is 100% into this tournament mentally he should make it very far and probably win. His path to the quarterfinals is very weak with stops against Hanescu, Baghdatis and Stepanek. In the quarterfinals he will likely face either Monfils or Roddick and I am leaning towards Roddick of the two. As we know Federer has basically manhandled Roddick throughout his career so he should be able to get into the semifinals against either Murray, Tsonga or Soderling. Since this is not a major which means the matches are best of three sets instead of best of fives sets, players do have a chance to beat Federer. He's been known to fall asleep on occasion during his matches and some players can grab a set or two against him and in these small tournaments that is enough to win the match but in the major tournaments Roger has time to compose himself and comeback in the match. With that being said the current outright odds on Federer of +235 are decent but it would probably be better to go with a bigger outright dog to have a chance of a bigger payout. I don't think Roddick will be able to beat Federer so I will pass on taking him here.
Quarter 2 - Murray, Tsonga and Soderling
Very tough quarter right here. Murray will likely walk his way through to the quarterfinals where he will play the winner of the Tsonga/Soderling match which to me is a complete toss up. Soderling's outright odds are +3300 and Tsonga's are +4300 so if you wanted to take a chance on an outright with either of them I would probably go with Tsonga because of the bigger payout. However, Tsonga retired from his last match with a sprained ankle so his health is definately a question at this point. Maybe Soderling's outright does appear to be better. Soderling is capable of beating Murray in the quarterfinals so the +3300 is starting to look better and better at this point for Soderling. I would consider taking Murray but the problem is that his odds to win are only +410 and I would have liked to have recieved a bigger payout for him.

Quarter 3 - Davydenko, Nadal
Not really a fan of this quarter. Since this is not a slam Davydenko always has a chance. He will have very little competition till he faces Verdasco. Davy did have to retire from his last match with a left wrist injury so I am going to pass on him entirely at this point. This could open up the door to Verdasco going into the quarterfinals against either Nadal,Querrey or Isner. I think due to Nadal's health you would have to take the winner of the Isner/Querrery match to beat Nadal and make it to the quarterfinals. Querrey won the only meeting between the two and that was this year. A Verdasco/Querrey quarterfinal is interesting and what is even more interesting is the fact that the winner of that match would be in the semifinals and two wins away from possibly winning. The outright odds on Verdasco are +4500 and for Querrey are +10900 which are both very big odds. With Querrey playing in his home country you would have to like his chances of beating Verdasco or Davydenko if Davy gets to that point. I am going to place a small play on Querrey +10900 to win it all. If worse comes to worse that bet can be easily hedged out in the semifinals as well.
Quarter 4 - Djokovic and Cilic
Not much happening in this portion of the draw. I am taking Djokovic at +700 to win this tournament because his draw is very easy. He will have to beat Fish, Kohlschreiber and Ljubicic to make it to the quarterfinals which would be very easy for him to do. He will then play Cilic probably and should be able to defeat him.They have played eachother 4 times and Novak has won all four. Granted Cilic is a different player at this point but I trust Djokovic more in a big spot then I do Cilic.
In summary, my mens outright bets for the BNP Paribas are:
Novak Djokovic +700
Sam Querrey +10900 (small play)
Robin Soderling +3300

Best of luck guys

**Stacocakes** · 03-10-10, 05:40 PM

Cirstea is 4-4 in the 3rd set right now.Hope she can win this match.Would be a great way to start the tournament cashing a +228 dog

**Stacocakes** · 03-10-10, 05:49 PM

Cirstea wins as a +228 dog huge

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-10-10, 08:07 PM

Noooice. Only reason I'd rather have Soderling over Tsonga is I still think Tsonga has some sort of fitness issue based on his results of late. His serve does not seem as dominant as it should be. Will have to look at my book to see the futures, but I am just excited for some main draw action finally. This last week plus without ATP play sucked!

**Stacocakes** · 03-10-10, 11:03 PM

Ya its good to get back into some quality tennis

Chakvetadze is in a third set right now. Currently up a break 3-1 but facing breakpoints. Bah. Hopefully she finds a way to hold on here

**Stacocakes** · 03-10-10, 11:15 PM

Chakvetadze finishes off the match for a good 2-0 day to start the tournament. Hope you guys made some money with your plays.Will check the board and post some plays early tomorrow

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-11-10, 01:00 AM

Djokovic is +650 at 5Dimes. I'm in for a unit. Frankly, I was surprised he wasn't more like +400 or so.

**Fthenorm** · 03-11-10, 01:36 AM

wheres the Federer NOT TO WIN prop?

**emeka** · 03-11-10, 01:59 AM

BIG Thanks for Cristea pick!

**beefcake** · 03-11-10, 09:50 AM

Now that gulbis has found his form,wonder if it might be worth a long shot punt

Persoanlly ive bet cilic every tourney and im sticking to my guns on this ..

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-11-10, 09:57 AM

Gulbis is a waste of money. #1, after winning a tournament and having time off, I'd say form/confidence isn't as great as if this were last week. #2, Chiudinelli could trouble him in the opener. #3, playing Davydenko in the 2nd round. I think he's done by Round 2. I just think there's better guys if you want to take a long shot IMO.

**Stacocakes** · 03-11-10, 10:58 AM

Beefcake, taking Cilic at this point at odds around +1550 is never a bad play.He has proven that he can play with the big boys. I don't personally think he will win this tournament but things are pretty much set up for him to walk into the quarterfinals where he will have a tough match against Djokovic. Anything is possible and the outright bet is a good bet
I have seen a Federer not to win prop at -250ish on Betfair if you are interested Fthenorm
I agree with Eagles with regards to Gulbis. He is way to inconsistant so putting money on him in the outright market is not really worth it.Hes a player that looks like a top 5 player one day and then the next day will lose to the 150th ranked player in straight sets. His mind isn't 100% into tennis so I tend to stay away from his matches especially since his odds are sometimes high. For instance against Chiudeinelli in the first round, Gulbis is -249. No value at all.Don't trust Gulbis at those odds. Plus in the second round he faces Davydenko and I don't think he has much chance of beating him.

Plays for today

Fish -107 over Berrer

Was thinking about this play all last night so I grabbed it before I went to bed. Fish is pretty much done at this point of his career but he will have the USA crowd behind him in this one and the odds are fairly decent so I am going to take a flyer on this one.

Ancic +116 over Reynolds

Was checking through the draw and was surprised to see Ancic. I thought he had retired to work on a law degree. Who knows what form he is in but I always liked him as a player. Bobby Reynolds is absolutely brutal and should never be favored against anyone. He has won only 3 of his last 10 matches so Ancic is definately worth a shot here eventhough I am unsure of his current form.

On the womens side I didn't see to much today. Not really worth it to bet a -200 or greater favorite in tennis at this point of the tournament. Need to start out slow here and only bet on the matches that I am feeling good about.

Best of luck today guys. Let's make some money

**Boner_18** · 03-11-10, 11:11 AM

On the other side on Berrer. Thinking a out betting Reynolds, he just came back from being sidelined with a wrist injury and really whooped on Istomin who has been hot lately (I am suspicious of Istomin retirements, think he does it when he is losing).

Either way GL to you Cakes.

**Boner_18** · 03-11-10, 01:11 PM

Yeah not touching Reynolds. Ancic has the talent to beat him even if he is only at 60%. His challenger record YTD is a bit troubling but maybe he was just looking to get out and hit some balls. GL.

**beefcake** · 03-11-10, 01:26 PM

one thing ive noticed in the past is that players that win these ATP 250 tourneys(gulbis) alot of times play like absolute horse crap the next time out..almost like suffering like a post win hangover.
Youe right about gulbis,he will roll a top20 player and then lose to #175 ranked stiff..
I think I might play CHIUDINELLI + games,who has improved alot since the beginningof 09

**Stacocakes** · 03-11-10, 03:57 PM

Good luck today guys. Both matches I took could go either way so it wouldn't really surprise me.

I had a dream I was dating Justine Henin last night so I wonder if that is a sign that she is going to win this tournament.Guess we will see now

Rogue if you see this thread, I can't get back into the sbr chat. Is it working for you still?

**beefcake** · 03-11-10, 04:25 PM

I woke up today with sharapova sitting on my face ...

Then I realized I was still sleeping..