Stacocakes BNP Paribas Open Thread

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  • Stacocakes
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 04-10-08
    • 7126

    #36
    Ancic about to start. Will be able to tell how successful his comeback attempt will be with this match. I could probably beat Bobby Reynolds so Mario should be able to win this match
    Comment
    • cappinthepigs
      SBR MVP
      • 10-07-09
      • 1864

      #37
      Reynolds didn't look too bad in Memphis a while back. A comeback is a comeback, but it should be easy on paper.
      Comment
      • Stacocakes
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 04-10-08
        • 7126

        #38
        Of course Reynolds gets the early break over Ancic. I will just refrain from making fun of him now haha.Thats what I get
        Comment
        • Stacocakes
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 04-10-08
          • 7126

          #39
          Reynolds takes the first set. Geez

          An upset today with Safarova going down. Surprising
          Comment
          • Stacocakes
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 04-10-08
            • 7126

            #40
            Ancic broke first game in the second set. Bah I have lost hope already in this match
            Comment
            • Stacocakes
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 04-10-08
              • 7126

              #41
              Super Mario back from the dead takes the second set and is up a break 3-1 in the third set. Finish it off Mario
              Comment
              • beefcake
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 11-26-09
                • 14029

                #42
                Well the whole planet is drinking the Gulbis Kool Aid tonight,part of me wants to put .5 unit on the chudster just beacuse of gulbis's hisotry of playing down to lesser players
                Comment
                • Stacocakes
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 04-10-08
                  • 7126

                  #43
                  Ancic cashes. 3-0 now so far this tournament. Fish pending tonight

                  I would pass on Gulbis. Odds are greater then -200. Not really worth the stress. Of course if I had a gun to my head I would say he wins this match but not worth it.
                  Comment
                  • EaglesPhan36
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 12-06-06
                    • 71662

                    #44
                    Nice win by Ancic. Only one I actually played today. Good thing because the other stuff I liked tanked.
                    Comment
                    • Stacocakes
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 04-10-08
                      • 7126

                      #45
                      Nice Eagles.Good to see people win
                      Comment
                      • Stacocakes
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 04-10-08
                        • 7126

                        #46
                        Have you looked ahead to tomorrow at all Eagles?Anything you like?
                        Comment
                        • Stacocakes
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 04-10-08
                          • 7126

                          #47
                          Oudin wins the first set then collapses and loses in 3.Loses 6-0 in the third. I think she was around -180 or so favorite. This girl has been absolute crap since the one little run she made
                          Comment
                          • Stacocakes
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 04-10-08
                            • 7126

                            #48
                            Good thing Ancic hit because Fish is getting destroyed.Drops the first set 6-1. Brutal
                            Comment
                            • EaglesPhan36
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 12-06-06
                              • 71662

                              #49
                              Oudin is a typical WTA player Staco. One thing you can usually count on in her matches, overs are good bets because of the many breaks of service she yields and can cause. She's a bit like Jankovic in that manner. Those two are almost auto plays for overs. I'm trying to track them when I know the numbers to see what the percentage is for winners on that wager.

                              Chardy-Querrey should be interesting. Also Kohlschreiber-Petzschner. Not sure if those are tomorrow or not, but just ones that stood out as I looked at the next matches in the draw. I'd take Petz in a heartbeat if he's getting something like +140 or better. Kohly sucks wind this season so far. Chardy might be worth a play at a good dog price since Querrey is having to come back from playing Davis Cup and transitions from clay to hard. Can still only warrant Chardy as a dog until he proves more consistent, but I love the guy's game and want to believe he's starting back uphill. Will watch Ancic against Benneteau. Should be a better gauge of if he has any game or not. Benny had a good start to 2010, but flamed out in Dubai ...
                              Comment
                              • Stacocakes
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 04-10-08
                                • 7126

                                #50
                                Fish rallies to win in 3 sets. Hasn't been easy today but another 2-0 day. Hope you guys are making some money in this tournament as well.

                                Agree Eagles. Not to sure how far I would ride Ancic at this point. Best to watch and see how he does and then maybe bet him down the road. I have Querrey as an outright so I think he has a good chance to win some matches here. No real lines up for Querrey yet but I am sure he will be a fairly big favorite so there is not much value in backing him against Chardy. Just don't know if Chardy has enough to beat him at this point.

                                Haven't had a real chance to look at tomorrows schedule yet. Will come back later tonight with some plays after the basketball game
                                Comment
                                • Stacocakes
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 04-10-08
                                  • 7126

                                  #51
                                  Nothing really jumping out at me today.Some thoughts though:

                                  Blake -624 against anyone at this point of his career is a joke of a price. He is just not good at all at this point of his career. He SHOULD beat Gimeno-Traver but how many times have we looked at Blake and thought that he should win and he dissapoints?To many times to count.

                                  Its good to see Nalbandian back but i'd like to see how he performs here before I consider betting him at this point.

                                  Something that might be a good today is a parlay of some of the favorites. I can't see anything drastic happening on the women's side today so a favorites parlay should hit.

                                  Michael Russell -408 over Paolo Lorenzi? Seriously? Who would take Russell in this instance? Granted Lorenzi has lost 6 matches in a row but still, if you have no plays and you feel you definately have to get some bets down on tennis today why not bet Lorenzi at +362? If it doesn't hit oh well its a big dog but are you telling me Russell is a lock to win anything? -408 is an outrageous price.

                                  Glad I still have some time to think about this one. Seppi -161 over Ginepri. Seppi is clearly the better player here at this point in there careers. Ginepri has won only 3 of his last 10 matches as he slowly is fading off into tennis oblivion.........but wait.....Seppi is 4-6 in his last 10 matches himself.... forget it I will pass.

                                  Petrova vs Schnyder. I think Petrova wins this match but she is -208 and thats the only thing preventing me from jumping all over this. Schnyder has been dissapointing for many years and always bows out of tournaments early. Have had a good start to this tournament betting wise so far though and I am not sure if I want to possibly throw away one day of profits on a match like this though. Going to think about this for a couple hours since the match is in the late afternoon and will decide whether or not to pull the trigger on this.

                                  Do you guys like anything today?I can't find much at all worth betting on
                                  Comment
                                  • HeeeHAWWWW
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 06-13-08
                                    • 5487

                                    #52
                                    Seppi had a long bad period due to a mystery illness, he's looked a lot stronger in recent matches. Also a great favourite around these sort of odds, big +roi.
                                    Comment
                                    • Stacocakes
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 04-10-08
                                      • 7126

                                      #53
                                      Gasquet upset in the first round. Believe he was an over -300 favorite
                                      Lisicki upset as well
                                      Wozniacki almost lost
                                      Henin lost the first set to Dulko. Unbelievable
                                      Glad I stayed away today geez
                                      Comment
                                      • Stacocakes
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 04-10-08
                                        • 7126

                                        #54
                                        Dulko is getting the breaks in the third set but is having trouble holding them. Will have her second chance to serve for the match shortly. Will be a massive upset if she knocks off Henin. I think Henin was around -3000 wasn't she? wow
                                        Comment
                                        • Stacocakes
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 04-10-08
                                          • 7126

                                          #55
                                          Henin loses.Will be good to see how this affects the outright markets.Didn't see this coming
                                          Comment
                                          • Stacocakes
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 04-10-08
                                            • 7126

                                            #56
                                            Sharapova down 5-2 in the first set
                                            Was so busy following Henin I didn't even notice
                                            This is not good at all.Surely Maria will rebound here......
                                            Comment
                                            • Stacocakes
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 04-10-08
                                              • 7126

                                              #57
                                              Sharapova drops the first set
                                              Comment
                                              • Stacocakes
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 04-10-08
                                                • 7126

                                                #58
                                                Well Sharapova down 3-0 in the second set now. Looks like she has packed it up already
                                                Disapointing but I guess a positive is that at least it was an outright loss and not a -500 loss or whatever the line was for this match
                                                No real way to cap womens tennis at all
                                                Comment
                                                • Stacocakes
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 04-10-08
                                                  • 7126

                                                  #59
                                                  Breaks left and right everywhere. Girls can't hold serve ever. When the going gets tough they all just fold up
                                                  Maria still in this match but I am not feeling that confident about it
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Stacocakes
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 04-10-08
                                                    • 7126

                                                    #60
                                                    Sharapova wins the second set. Nice. Hoping for a good 3rd set from Maria
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Stacocakes
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 04-10-08
                                                      • 7126

                                                      #61
                                                      Sharapova wins in three sets but it sure wasn't easy. Geez
                                                      Outrights still intact
                                                      Will check tomorrow's board later tonight and post some plays
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Stacocakes
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 04-10-08
                                                        • 7126

                                                        #62
                                                        The big names are entering into the mens side of the tournament today and as you have guessed it so are the big prices in these matches. Have been doing great so far this tournament so I don't want to blow it all with some overpriced favorite going down in flames. Of the big favorites on the mens side I don't really see any of them losing today but since this is a best of three set tournament anything can happen if a player starts out slowly so I will stay away from the big favorites at this point.
                                                        I was looking at Ivanovic possibly on the women's side but in her last 10 she is 4-6 with 3 losses in a row so I think I will pass. It's also been noted that she is nursing a shoulder injury as well so that is a definate no play though the odds are just screaming at you to take her.
                                                        Will probably just pass on the matches today and try not to force any plays. Best of luck today
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Stacocakes
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 04-10-08
                                                          • 7126

                                                          #63
                                                          Simon has fallen off the map completely. Was actually considering him at one point.Glad I didn't. Definately a player to stay away with from now on.Injuries have gotten to him
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Stacocakes
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 04-10-08
                                                            • 7126

                                                            #64
                                                            Kuznetsova loses the first set. These top seeded ladies are having so much trouble this week
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Stacocakes
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 04-10-08
                                                              • 7126

                                                              #65
                                                              Kuznetsova knocked out in the third set. Big names going down early
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Stacocakes
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 04-10-08
                                                                • 7126

                                                                #66
                                                                Cilic knocked out is opening the door for Djokovic to cruise to the semifinals.Perfect
                                                                6-0 in the second set.....what was cilic doing?Playing with no legs?
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Stacocakes
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 04-10-08
                                                                  • 7126

                                                                  #67
                                                                  Ivanovic loses in straight sets.Glad I didn't take her.Dodging landmines the last couples of nights thank god
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Stacocakes
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 04-10-08
                                                                    • 7126

                                                                    #68
                                                                    Looking ahead to tomorrow's matches, here is who I like

                                                                    I like the Blake/Ferrer match to go over tomorrow.Think this will be a 3 set battle.No over/under is currently up on Pinnacle but this is a late night match tomorrow so I will just wait till tomorrow to bet the over

                                                                    A play that I like that I have already locked in is Andreev +104 over Michael Russell. I really can't believe that Andreev is the underdog in this situation.

                                                                    I'm leaning Karlovic at -149 right now over Almagro but still not 100% sure I am going to bet the match. Karlovic has been playing some good tennis in recent week and its always good to have a player with his serve in a best of 3 format match.Will consider this one overnight.

                                                                    Another play that I am going to consider overnight is Petrova over Peng. Petrova is definately the better player coming into this tournament but she is pretty much hit or miss on any given day so she is a good bet as a small favorite or a dog but never as a big favorite. -166 is decent odds for Petrova so I might bet this match but I am going to think about this one as well

                                                                    If you guys like anything tomorrow let me know.Hope you guys are dodging the landmines of these top seeds bowing out so far
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • tailmypicks
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 11-09-09
                                                                      • 1005

                                                                      #69
                                                                      i like my favourite wta player aravane rezai as an underdog against schiavone
                                                                      Baba-e-qaum ne farmaya, too chal me aya
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Stacocakes
                                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                        • 04-10-08
                                                                        • 7126

                                                                        #70
                                                                        Going to add the Karlovic play at -140

                                                                        Plays for today are

                                                                        Karlovic -140
                                                                        Andreev +104


                                                                        Best of luck guys
                                                                        Comment
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