TennisBabe's '10 Picks

**TennisBabe** · 05-24-10, 12:18 PM

Nobody has won this match yet. Both playing pretty bad

**Fthenorm** · 05-24-10, 12:20 PM

Gasquets 5 set record is atrocious while Murray's is stunning

**Goat Milk** · 05-24-10, 12:21 PM

Gasquet has crowd behind him though, and Murray is honestly playing better right now. Let's see who pulls it out. I'm happy I got the over.

**JNic** · 05-24-10, 12:26 PM

wow does anyone see bellucci has 41 winners, 2 unforced errors

**TennisBabe** · 05-24-10, 12:28 PM

Very impressive!

**TennisBabe** · 05-24-10, 12:42 PM

Today: 3-0 +3.00

I'm counting the Lacko bet since the funds cleared today

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-24-10, 12:44 PM

Very surprised by Bellucci's dominance. Granted Llodra is not a clay court player, but Bellucci had been playing like ass the past two weeks. Really thought the court conditions might help Llodra's serve have a little pop and keep him in at least enough to win a set. Love Bellucci's game on clay though. He's just about a tier lower than guys like Federer, Drjokovic, Ferrer, JCF, etc. on this stuff though right now.

**TennisBabe** · 05-24-10, 12:48 PM

If Federer can just get upset before the semifinals I'll be jumping up for joy. I'm liking my future bet on Berdych more and more with Murray playing like crap and who knows how healthy Tsonga is.

Then he just has to get past Nadal.

**Goat Milk** · 05-24-10, 01:38 PM

Originally posted by TennisBabe

If Federer can just get upset before the semifinals I'll be jumping up for joy. I'm liking my future bet on Berdych more and more with Murray playing like crap and who knows how healthy Tsonga is.

Then he just has to get past Nadal.

Gasquet was just the obstacle Murray needed to overcome early on. He will advance far into this tourney- I guarantee it.

**Slider612** · 05-24-10, 01:39 PM

TennisBabe nice day way to go,watching slam trax like Berrer, real entertaning matchup

**Slider612** · 05-24-10, 01:44 PM

That Murray match was good, watched that live,long one,nice having daytime sports on the computer.Like tennis from NY allways get into the US Open,at Flushing Meadows,nice time of year.

**Cappinpicks** · 05-24-10, 02:27 PM

What happened to the Monfis match? cancelled till when?

**TennisBabe** · 05-24-10, 02:31 PM

Monfils won today

**Cappinpicks** · 05-24-10, 02:37 PM

I took monfils large but it said cancelled at my book.

**Texas** · 05-24-10, 03:23 PM

great job on tennis. i have never done tennis but watching yall ,i am going to give it a try. what time do i need to watch for plays on tennis? its 330 texas time? i am sure it cannot be that difficult.lol

**TennisBabe** · 05-24-10, 04:04 PM

His opponent changed this morning which is why your bet was probably cancelled

**Cappinpicks** · 05-24-10, 04:25 PM

oh yeah, florian mayer was suppose to play him -385, what was the line on him against the new guy?

**TennisBabe** · 05-24-10, 05:03 PM

I didn't see any books putting up a new line. Most didn't catch the late scratch

**Cappinpicks** · 05-24-10, 05:29 PM

Thinking of unloading on roddick tonight, any chance he loses?

**AssAn** · 05-24-10, 05:40 PM

Can I ask a very "noobish" question?
I don't know a lot about tennis, but I'd like to make Roland Garros a bit more exciting for me..
I've heard someone saying he was glad he could bet on tennis again, because he made a lot of profit on it, but when I see these games, most of the odds are between 1.01 and 1.40 (decimal).. Is it a good strategy to parlay like 12 players with odds between 1.05-1.40, so it would become a quotation of >6.00, or is this (like in soccer) a bad strategy?

Thx and BOL

**TennisBabe** · 05-24-10, 05:40 PM

Roddick played a clay exhibition to "prep" for this tournament and looked horrible. Now grant it was his first clay match and an exhibition, but I'm not touching his first round match

**Tommy_de1st** · 05-24-10, 06:47 PM

Originally posted by AssAn

Can I ask a very "noobish" question?
I don't know a lot about tennis, but I'd like to make Roland Garros a bit more exciting for me..
I've heard someone saying he was glad he could bet on tennis again, because he made a lot of profit on it, but when I see these games, most of the odds are between 1.01 and 1.40 (decimal).. Is it a good strategy to parlay like 12 players with odds between 1.05-1.40, so it would become a quotation of >6.00, or is this (like in soccer) a bad strategy?

Thx and BOL

Its by far the worst what you can do

**Cappinpicks** · 05-24-10, 07:20 PM

can he really get erased in round 1? -400 seems generous for A-rod. I will probably hit it up for a dime, anything you like?

**blackf1re** · 05-24-10, 07:24 PM

Originally posted by AssAn

Can I ask a very "noobish" question?
I don't know a lot about tennis, but I'd like to make Roland Garros a bit more exciting for me..
I've heard someone saying he was glad he could bet on tennis again, because he made a lot of profit on it, but when I see these games, most of the odds are between 1.01 and 1.40 (decimal).. Is it a good strategy to parlay like 12 players with odds between 1.05-1.40, so it would become a quotation of >6.00, or is this (like in soccer) a bad strategy?

Thx and BOL

You should stay away from that. I'm afraid too many people don't understand how bad parlays in general are. Bookies generally pay out 90-95% of the amount placed on the winning result. That means if you want to bet on a coinflip for example they'll offer you odds of ~1.85. The bookmaker's margin (i.e his net profit in the long run) would be 8% in that case -> (1/1.85)*2 = 1.08
Now if you combine multiple bets to a parlay you have to multiply the payout rates. If your book pays out 90% for a single bet then the payout drops to 81% (0.9*0.9) for a 2 fold parlay. If you combine 7 bets then we're talking about a payout rate of less than 50%! You can see why parlays are a goldmine for the bookmakers.
Either a bet has value or not. And if you don't think there's any value in a 1.10 bet then DON'T use it in a parlay as you're only gonna lose more money in the long run.

BUT should you find multiple value bets then you SHOULD parlay them. Example: You get 2.10 for what you think is a coinflip. Payout would be 110%. Multiplied by two we get 121%. THAT is when to use parlays but usually people do it when they think the odds offered are too short to back and fall under the false impression that by combining them they get better odds and value.

**Cappinpicks** · 05-24-10, 07:24 PM

41794180
D GUEZ
DAVID FERRER

+2500
-5500

wow

**TennisBabe** · 05-24-10, 09:26 PM

I'm not saying he will lose, I'm just saying I would not lay those odds personally. I do have him advancing in my bracket FWIW ;-)

**noober** · 05-24-10, 09:38 PM

Originally posted by blackf1re

You should stay away from that. I'm afraid too many people don't understand how bad parlays in general are. Bookies generally pay out 90-95% of the amount placed on the winning result. That means if you want to bet on a coinflip for example they'll offer you odds of ~1.85. The bookmaker's margin (i.e his net profit in the long run) would be 8% in that case -> (1/1.85)*2 = 1.08
Now if you combine multiple bets to a parlay you have to multiply the payout rates. If your book pays out 90% for a single bet then the payout drops to 81% (0.9*0.9) for a 2 fold parlay. If you combine 7 bets then we're talking about a payout rate of less than 50%! You can see why parlays are a goldmine for the bookmakers.
Either a bet has value or not. And if you don't think there's any value in a 1.10 bet then DON'T use it in a parlay as you're only gonna lose more money in the long run.

BUT should you find multiple value bets then you SHOULD parlay them. Example: You get 2.10 for what you think is a coinflip. Payout would be 110%. Multiplied by two we get 121%. THAT is when to use parlays but usually people do it when they think the odds offered are too short to back and fall under the false impression that by combining them they get better odds and value.

Very well said.

**ten_lost_monkeys** · 05-24-10, 10:58 PM

What do you think of the llyten Hewitt Match TB?

**Andy117** · 05-24-10, 11:29 PM

Originally posted by blackf1re

You should stay away from that. I'm afraid too many people don't understand how bad parlays in general are. Bookies generally pay out 90-95% of the amount placed on the winning result. That means if you want to bet on a coinflip for example they'll offer you odds of ~1.85. The bookmaker's margin (i.e his net profit in the long run) would be 8% in that case -> (1/1.85)*2 = 1.08
Now if you combine multiple bets to a parlay you have to multiply the payout rates. If your book pays out 90% for a single bet then the payout drops to 81% (0.9*0.9) for a 2 fold parlay. If you combine 7 bets then we're talking about a payout rate of less than 50%! You can see why parlays are a goldmine for the bookmakers.
Either a bet has value or not. And if you don't think there's any value in a 1.10 bet then DON'T use it in a parlay as you're only gonna lose more money in the long run.

BUT should you find multiple value bets then you SHOULD parlay them. Example: You get 2.10 for what you think is a coinflip. Payout would be 110%. Multiplied by two we get 121%. THAT is when to use parlays but usually people do it when they think the odds offered are too short to back and fall under the false impression that by combining them they get better odds and value.

I should have paid better attention in math when I was in high school. Well said.

**BET THE HOOK** · 05-24-10, 11:31 PM

Gasquet should have beaten Murray today. He had him beaten and then quit. That was the only match I have lost in 2 days and it pissed me off.

**JW Cash** · 05-24-10, 11:42 PM

Who need a leprachaun with a Pot o' Gold............

when ya got the TennisBabe................

**EmpireMaker** · 05-25-10, 12:00 AM

I thought Gasquet would win today.

**Jive** · 05-25-10, 02:16 AM

I think the idea isn't to use parlays to win more money; it is to use them to manage risk. If a higher chalk player loses in a parlay you are out one unit. If said player loses in a straight bet you might be out 2 or 3 units. And if you want to play several higher chalk players and two of them lose...

That's where parlays come in handy.

I won a 10 player parlay today and I never would have touched any of those straight up because the money to be laid was over -200 for each. The parlay paid at +294. Certainly you will lose more of them than you win in the long run, but if you pick your spots the wins will more than make up for the losses. More importantly, it will protect you from taking big hits to your bankroll by playing high juice.

Parlays certainly should not be your primary strategy, but there is a time when using them can be wise. If they all win, you will win less money by parlaying than if you played them all separately, but you will also be risking less, protecting yourself from multiple heavy hits. So it all depends on if you want to try to win more or if you are ensure that you lose less.

Just don't randomly pick some of the high priced favorites, because that will be a total disaster. Especially on specialty surfaces like clay. They will be guys and (especially) women in this tournament who are -400 or more based on name, when they should be close to even money. That is why the French Open is an ATM machine.

**BatemanPatrickl** · 05-25-10, 03:42 AM

No early plays TB?

**Mthorn** · 05-25-10, 03:51 AM

took a chance with T. Dent yesterday and turned out good for me.. no picks for today?