TennisBabe's '10 Picks

[tboy2464]

just collapsing now... 2-0 up in the first, now 3-6 0-1 down a break in the 2nd..

[danller]

2nd set and gets a break against her, this is over

[griffdog]

Perhaps we should all just write her off...then she'd start roaring back.

[griffdog]

She's just waiting to make that comeback from down a set and triple match point. Just wait, just wait.

[alamo]

Wow... This is a rout

[TennisBabe]

Ivanovic is giving away too many free points with 7 double faults. Very poor effort by her today and a great gameplan by Kleybanova. Didn't expect Kleybanova to play like this on clay. Very disappointing performance by the Serbian

[JNic]

we can always get a little choke by kleybanova, we still got some hope

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

who do you like in the 745- and later matches tb
?

[griffdog]

Well, you win some, you lose some.

[TennisBabe]

I don't have any other picks for today. Just the Baghdatis one pending from yesterday

[TennisBabe]

Sad part is I thought this would be a 2-set, one sided dominance. Too bad it was the wrong person.

[bolekblues]

Pathetic... 63minutes!! this game was a joke!!

[griffdog]

Amazing that she won the first two games...guess that she wanted to give everyone false hope! You'll bounce back TB.

[TennisBabe]

After Ivanovic broke and went up 2-0 she lost 12 of the next 13 games.

[SRBI]

is all I can do right now - what happened TB - did your book call and tell you to hand out a 10 unit play of the year loser so they can get some money back? Quickest hundo I ever lost...no wonder I don't hang around here.

[shari91]

I'm so sorry TB. I honestly hate betting on her but I'd hoped she could pull this one out for you.

[MexicanStallion]

Tough break TB. I know little about tennis, but feels like Ivanovic is always solid for a poor performance. I think she burns Lou from time to time.

[TennisBabe]

She has been playing much better on clay this year, has had some big upsets and coming back to the site of her biggest win everything was pointed for a turnaround. I had her marked as having a deep tournament run. Unfortunately it's back to the drawing board. Her serve was awful again today and she had no depth on her backhand.

[EaglesPhan36]

Somewhere CrazyLou is spinning in his grave. Wait.

[sapidoc]

WTA THURSDAY Ana Ivanovic -150 RISKING 15.00 TO WIN 10.00 PLAY OF THE YEAR!

Hey TB, really appreciate your picks. Thanks for posting. Can't always pick winners, but I appreciate the time you put in nevertheless.

I'm trying to learn what I can so win or lose I would have liked to know the thought process involved in why this was 'play of the year' as opposed to just a smart, good-value play. Maybe something with some insight and reason? Perhaps next time.

Sad part is I thought this would be a 2-set, one sided dominance. Too bad it was the wrong person.

Don't worry about it, you will get this one back; its easy to look back after the fact and think 'too bad', but as long as your method was sure, it was the right move. Just wish there was a little more explaination so we can learn.

It does make me wonder though, at -150 Iv needs to win this 60% of the time for the bet to be 'breakeven' alone. I personally didn't do my research on this one, but I'd be curious to know if you came to the fact that Iv prob wins this matchup that frequently.

Sure 60% means she has to lose some, but after today's game it doesn't look that way to me at all, but I'm not a tennis expert my any means. Just seems like this matchup is quite close.

I've seen you give great 'value' explainations before on bets and loved them. They do lose sometimes, but the fact that they are close losses makes me think: "well I was getting 2:1 and lost by one point, so definitely made the right +EV bet.

When Play of the Year came out I was pumped, but then shocked that you didn't really have anything to say about it.

This:

She has been playing much better on clay this year, has had some big upsets and coming back to the site of her biggest win everything was pointed for a turnaround. I had her marked as having a deep tournament run. Unfortunately it's back to the drawing board. Her serve was awful again today and she had no depth on her backhand.

Keep up the picks TB. Thanks for all you do. Its appreciated.

[SRBI]

I feel like you're over-analyzing - what happened was simple - it was time to pay the bookie back, 100 fold. Well done.

[hush-hush]

That was tough today. Radwanska did some great choke job as well.

[Cappinpicks]

Game of the year is an auto-fade, no matter who it comes from

[TennisBabe]

Hey TB, really appreciate your picks. Thanks for posting. Can't always pick winners, but I appreciate the time you put in nevertheless.

I'm trying to learn what I can so win or lose I would have liked to know the thought process involved in why this was 'play of the year' as opposed to just a smart, good-value play. Maybe something with some insight and reason? Perhaps next time.



Don't worry about it, you will get this one back; its easy to look back after the fact and think 'too bad', but as long as your method was sure, it was the right move. Just wish there was a little more explaination so we can learn.

It does make me wonder though, at -150 Iv needs to win this 60% of the time for the bet to be 'breakeven' alone. I personally didn't do my research on this one, but I'd be curious to know if you came to the fact that Iv prob wins this matchup that frequently.

Sure 60% means she has to lose some, but after today's game it doesn't look that way to me at all, but I'm not a tennis expert my any means. Just seems like this matchup is quite close.

I've seen you give great 'value' explainations before on bets and loved them. They do lose sometimes, but the fact that they are close losses makes me think: "well I was getting 2:1 and lost by one point, so definitely made the right +EV bet.

When Play of the Year came out I was pumped, but then shocked that you didn't really have anything to say about it.

This:



Keep up the picks TB. Thanks for all you do. Its appreciated.

Everything had to do with the surface. Clay is Kleybanova's worst surface (50% career %) and Ivanovic's best (75 % including 67% this year). Kleybanova is a power player and I expected the clay and conditions to equalize that, unfortunately Ivanovic gave away too many free points with her double faults and midway through the match Kleybanova realized Ivanovic had nothing with her backhand and attacked that the entire match. I don't regret the play. Computer rankings had Ivanovic as a 75% win.

[Cappinpicks]

womens tennis is a jokeanything for tomorrow to rebound with?

[TennisBabe]

The rain is throwing everything out of sorts. I'll wait and see what gets completed today and how the schedule shapes out for tomorrow.

[sapidoc]

Everything had to do with the surface. Clay is Kleybanova's worst surface (50% career %) and Ivanovic's best (75 % including 67% this year). Kleybanova is a power player and I expected the clay and conditions to equalize that, unfortunately Ivanovic gave away too many free points with her double faults and midway through the match Kleybanova realized Ivanovic had nothing with her backhand and attacked that the entire match. I don't regret the play. Computer rankings had Ivanovic as a 75% win.

I'm not sure how computer rankings relate to the public's perception, but that would mean the vast public felt that she was much less than 75% to win then, since the books were offering -150 ?

I think I got it at around -154 or so by the time I made the bet, but 75% seems really high 'computer' win, when the odds are suggesting 60% breakeven (and you know they are even juicing that -odds# more so....)

Where did you get the 75% from? I think I want to look into the odds vs computer% for past matches and see if I can come up with anything that correlates.

[Cappinpicks]

I need a lock for today, will novak roll?

[TennisBabe]

That match won't be finished today.

[Cappinpicks]

Any big favorite you think will win for sure

[TennisBabe]

Henin

[Cappinpicks]

shoot, -2000 odds for womens tennis. I'm shitting my pants but just put down to win 200$

[Cappinpicks]

Already sick to my stomach, 2 years of hard work gone if this ugly sob doesn't deliver

[TennisBabe]

Baghdatis on his way to victory...oh and yes, he will beat Murray next round

[shari91]

Already sick to my stomach, 2 years of hard work gone if this ugly sob doesn't deliver

Best of luck Cappin. You're a much braver soul than I. Today's already shaping up to be the day of the dogs, at least with the women.