EP36's Tennis Talk

**noober** · 05-19-10, 01:46 PM

Originally posted by beefcake

Eagles,what do you think of Dimitrov at -140 for tommorrow? Seems like a fair price...

Who is he playing?

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-19-10, 03:42 PM

Dimitrov is laying Bachinger. Dimitrov impressed me the other day because I expected he might struggle a little due to his inexperience on clay. He's a great young talent. Bachinger doesn't look like anything impressive.

**beefcake** · 05-19-10, 03:50 PM

Thats what I thought,now if we can find another play in nice,warsaw,or strasbourg,we might have our parlay for tommorrow..
baggy or hell vania king?

**noober** · 05-19-10, 04:10 PM

Dimitrov should definitely win against Bachinger. Different class players.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-19-10, 05:56 PM

Still looking over tomorrow, but one that I think is pretty solid for parlays is Dulgheru. She's been pretty solid on clay over the past three weeks and is now 10-0 at this event in two years. She's playing a quali who beat Dementieva, but I don't know that saying that means much these days.

**noober** · 05-19-10, 06:21 PM

I have Pironkova to win over Dulgheru in my thread. Definitely the value is with her in that match.

**beefcake** · 05-19-10, 10:17 PM

Im going to roll with Gasquet with the handicap(-5)...Just think he is on fire right now...

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-19-10, 10:31 PM

Things I THINK I Know ... Thursday, May 20th

The parlay formula today starts with the red hot Richard Gasquet. Not always trustworthy, he is in a good spot here against Rochus. I'm not reading a ton into Rochus' win over Soderling as I think Soderling is either hiding an injury or just finally has come back to his headcase ways which were prevalent before his French Open run last year. Gasquet inexplicably feel asleep in the 2nd set against Dolgopolov yesterday, but recovered to win easily in the 3rd. He matches up well with Rochus on clay as he has beaten him very easily in three straight clay encounters over the past two months. Rochus has won just 6 games in those matches. He may be a bit more competitive on Thursday, but I THINK Gasquet is on a roll and goes at least one more round here. I THINK the other half of the parlay will fall onto the Challenger level in Italy. Grigor Dimitrov takes on German Bachinger. Dimitrov was impressive in his opener, not offering up a break point. Bachinger did earn a nice win over veteran Gilles Muller in the opener in a third set tie break. Dimitrov has been well talked about as the next big thing for about a year now after winning the Wimbledon & US Open junior championships. He's still learning to play on clay, but his talent I THINK is enough to see him through if he serves well. This parlay pays about +107.

I THINK your best dog to bark on Thursday could be Potito Starace at +185 or better. Would THINK you would want close to +200 here to make it worth it, but he's beaten Monfils before and Monfils looked anything but stellar against a non-clay threat in Chuidinelli yesterday. Starace has been super solid in the first two rounds here, if he serves well, I THINK he can give Monfils a run.

**beefcake** · 05-19-10, 11:02 PM

Was looking at the qualies tommorrow and Schukin is red hot,career journeyman,but 6 match winning streak on clay.Beat some decent players in zagreb..parlay fodder maybe

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-20-10, 07:15 AM

Skipping Starace. Odds did not get high enough for me to want to take that shot.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-20-10, 07:25 AM

In Dusseldorf in the team competition, I THINK I am going OVER with Monaco-Chardy at 21.5. Chardy was useless against Troicki, losing 6-4, 6-2 ... but Monaco has been anything but reliable of late on dirt. He barely survived against Troicki, winning 7-6 in the 3rd. Seems both may be troubled by nagging injuries. Monaco with a wrist and Chardy with a knee. So, I THINK that could lead to a topsy turvy type match that either goes three or gets a shot at hitting over in 2. They've battled twice in their careers with Monaco taking both, including a 7-5, 6-2 win on clay last April.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-20-10, 08:42 AM

Seems like Chardy is going to screw me again today by showing up to play. Probably needs to be on my no-fly list like Andreev. I can never get on the right side of any bets seemingly with Chardy. We'll see how set #2 goes.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-20-10, 08:46 AM

F*ck. Maybe I should be mad at Monaco some too, but Chardy was +240 today and I talked myself off after he shit himself blue against Troicki the other day.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-20-10, 09:34 AM

F-ing Chardy. Wins 6-3, 6-4. On my no-fly list, can't win with the guy. I'm adding Monfils today at -185. High chalk, but I THINK there's something to it with the public on Starace. Maybe just adding into a parlay.

**JNic** · 05-20-10, 09:39 AM

yea i agree on Monfils, everyone in the world is on Starace but now the value is awful

**shari91** · 05-20-10, 09:43 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

F-ing Chardy. Wins 6-3, 6-4. On my no-fly list, can't win with the guy. I'm adding Monfils today at -185. High chalk, but I THINK there's something to it with the public on Starace. Maybe just adding into a parlay.

Chardy's a tricky bastard. I gave him one more shot today and I was lucky to finally be on the winning side with him. I can't peg him either. I am one of the suckers on Starace though I took him much earlier.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-20-10, 09:48 AM

Monfils + Sharapova [-107]

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-20-10, 09:51 AM

Chrady is defintiely Dr.Jekyll & Mr.Hyde as in HIDE your money if he's a favorite or around even odds. I guess today I should have trusted myself because Monaco had not been in good form and the price was really way too chalky on Monaco. I really thought Chardy was going to push toward the Top 20 this year, but he's been so inconsistent.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-20-10, 10:25 AM

Guess Monfils wants to give me a heart attack today. Playing like an idiot again.

**beefcake** · 05-20-10, 10:45 AM

Grigor lost the first..guess were going to have to do it the hard way...

**noober** · 05-20-10, 10:48 AM

You can watch Grigor here:

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**tailmypicks** · 05-20-10, 10:49 AM

monfils looks better now

**JNic** · 05-20-10, 11:00 AM

yea monfils looks more focused but starace still showing good form from baseline

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-20-10, 11:15 AM

Got blown out in the tie break. Sheesh. Maybe Monfils can at least start strong in the 2nd and not have to dig out of a hole the entire set.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-20-10, 11:20 AM

Or not. What a mook. Guess I shoulda gone with my first inclincation of Starace.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-20-10, 11:26 AM

Looks like I'm going down in flames today on everything.

**tailmypicks** · 05-20-10, 11:30 AM

playing like a total ass

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-20-10, 11:56 AM

I'm gonna go suck on a tailpipe for about an hour. Two parlays blown up. Totals play dead. Superb job today, superb.

**noober** · 05-20-10, 12:10 PM

No worries. It will come back. It sucks when you fade a player and he plays amazing only to play him next round, where he plays like shit (Grigor Dimitrov). I don't know how is he getting to top ten if he can't win two matches in a row in challengers.

**beefcake** · 05-21-10, 12:20 AM

Is a gasquet,verdasco parlay in the cards EP?

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-21-10, 01:03 AM

Things I THINK I Know ... Friday, May 21st

In looking for the two person parlay formula I like, I THINK starting with Richard Gasquet is as good as any. Gasquet cruised to a Challenger clay title last week against lesser competition and has continued good form in Nice. Starace presents perhaps his toughest challenge of the past two weeks as he has been serving very well this week and won't make life easy. Gasquet is going to have to be patient against Starace who likes to slug it from the baseline, but I THINK if Gasquet can serve well and continues to show a calm demeanor, he will advance. The 2nd leg of the parlay for me lies with Tomas Berdych in Team World Cup in Dusseldorf. Berdych draws John Isner in a must win situation for the Czech team. A win by Berdych means that the Czechs and Americans will play a doubles match to decide with team moves on in this competition. I THINK I like Berdych here as Isner has reported a sore right arm this week and actually was held out of a match the other day because of this. It could have been precautionary and done with this match in mind, still ... Isner got crushed by Lleyton Hewitt in this competition and Hewitt has reportedly been struggling with a virus. That was apparently evident in Hewitt getting blown out yesterday by Almagro. With all that in mind, it would be hard to back Isner here as his fitness is a concern especially ahead of the French Open. Therefore, I THINK Berdych needing to win to keep his country alive and Isner perhaps trying to protect the injury, leads me to THINK that the Czech will find a way to get it done. This parlay pays +122.

I THINK as far as O/U numbers, Gasquet-Starace would be an OVER I would like. No number released, but anything 22 or less would be an OVER in my book. Anything above would be a no bet. In looking for a dog that could bark on Friday, I have to look to Dulgheru in the WTA against Na Li. Dulgheru is now 11-0 at the Warsaw event in the past two years. While Li is a solid player, she has only been to two clay court finals in her career and the last one came in 2006. Dulgheru meanwhile won this tournament last year and won 2 out of the 3 finals she made on the ITF level on dirt late in 2009. This is a big test for her, but at +185, I THINK she is definitely worth a roll.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-21-10, 01:36 AM

21.5 for Gasquet-Starace, took the over at -108.

**VOJVODINA** · 05-21-10, 01:48 AM

GL

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-21-10, 07:28 AM

Dulgheru! Nice to wake up to a win.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-21-10, 08:27 AM

Alright. Berdych outlasts Isner in a 3rd set tie break, so still alive with Gasquet on the parlay!