EP36's Tennis Talk

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-16-10, 11:34 AM

I THINK I like the prop that Rafa-Fed ends in 3 at +135.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-16-10, 01:54 PM

Well the Over hit and I boned myself going for the better odds for 3 sets as Fed choked the tie break away twice after taking a point from Nadal and had those chances to take command of the break. Oh well. Decent match, I think about what I expected. Think Federer can take some confidence from this one as he showed he's not going to just get blown off the court by Rafa.

**MUHerd37** · 05-16-10, 01:57 PM

I can't believe the Federer whiffed on championship point.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-16-10, 11:58 PM

Things I THINK I Know ... Monday, May 17th

I THINK the books installing Clement as a favorite in Nice is purely a product of him being in his home country. Let's back track to last week when Clement lost on the Challenger level in his home country to Vasselin who is definitely not a strong clay court player. Clement for his career has won less than 50% of his dirt matches. The Frenchman is 5-5 on dirt in 2010. Greul for his part has a better winning percentage on dirt, but is just 3-7 in his last 10 on the surface. Greul isn't useless on the stuff though as he made the quarters in 7 clay court tournaments in 2009, including one title. Gruel has alternated between total crap - losing 6-1, 6-1 to Monaco last week - to being competitive against good players - losing 7-5 in the 3rd set to Cilic + going three sets with Almagro in Monte Carlo. I THINK Greul is worth a small shot here simply because even in his home country, Clement is not a great dirt baller.

Also, I THINK Steve Darcis [gulp] at +145 might have a shot against Italian journeyman Potito Starace. Darcis made it thru qualis here and should have the advantage of having played on the surface already. Darcis has been playing a ton of clay tennis in 2010 and appears to be about as healthy as he's been in a bit.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-17-10, 08:31 AM

Challenger Level, I THINK you've got to be straight up high on crack to go for Rajeev Ram at over -200 on clay against anyone. Italian Marco Crugnola may not look the part of anything special, but he plays a lot of clay tennis in his home country and the price on Ram is just silly on dirt where he rarely plays. Crugnola at +160 for shits & giggles, I THINK.

**beefcake** · 05-17-10, 09:12 AM

Nice winner on simon!!

yeah I would never bet Ram on clay...Only reason he is so high is his serve rep,if crugnola can move him around,ram is toast..

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-17-10, 09:16 AM

Yeah split the two dogs and made a small profit. Should have known better on Darcis I suppose, he got swamped.

**beefcake** · 05-17-10, 09:19 AM

Dam!! ram has only played 10 matches his entire career on clay

...? To crug's 215.....HOLY CRAP...

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-17-10, 09:29 AM

Yep. That's why I think it's worth a shot. Ram is certainly the better overall player perhaps, but in Italy on a foreign surface ... why would you pay -210 on Ram?

**noober** · 05-17-10, 09:42 AM

Do you have any opinion on Evgeny Kirillov? I think taking him over Molchanov at 2.1 is a good play for tomorrow. In juniors Kirillov used to own him. In men, the head to head is 1-1 with Molchanov taking the last win, which explains the good price we can get on Kirillov.

**JNic** · 05-17-10, 10:09 AM

did you guys see this gianni mina guy. he's playing kubot today but look at the similarities with monfils. knee strap and everything

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**tailmypicks** · 05-17-10, 10:14 AM

o i was gonna tell you that u have posted monfil's pic
damn they look similar

**beefcake** · 05-17-10, 11:14 AM

Youre kidding right,looks like monfils twin!!

**beefcake** · 05-17-10, 11:16 AM

5-5 in the 3rd,ram has 5 aces(no surprise there).looking like a breaker..

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-17-10, 11:23 AM

Should have never been a tie break in this 1st set. Crugnola was up 5-2!

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-17-10, 11:36 AM

Well that was an eventful way to win a set, blow a 5-2 lead and then let Ram double fault on set point in the tie break, will take it!

**beefcake** · 05-17-10, 11:49 AM

Dam ram about to go up 3-0 in 2nd,hope cruggy didnt blow his load in the first..

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-17-10, 11:51 AM

Well guess we are in store for a 3rd set unless Ram took lessons from Crugnola in the 1st on how to blow a big lead.

**beefcake** · 05-17-10, 12:11 PM

JuJu hex on ram to get broken this game...!

**beefcake** · 05-17-10, 12:38 PM

Bring it home Marco!!!

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-17-10, 12:38 PM

Serving for the set!

**beefcake** · 05-17-10, 12:40 PM

Boo Yah!!!

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-17-10, 12:41 PM

What a freaking rollercoaster. 6-1 in the 3rd for Crugnola.

**tonibrazza** · 05-17-10, 12:50 PM

ty eagles

**beefcake** · 05-17-10, 01:42 PM

Eagles,what do you think of gasquet this tourney,after slumming it all last week in france,one would think he is full of confidence for nice,he should win his first 2 matches ,then he has done well vs all the remaining seeded players,when the futures come back up at 5dimes tonight he might be worth a small play at around +800

**VOJVODINA** · 05-17-10, 01:51 PM

GL

**Tsonga** · 05-17-10, 02:35 PM

Originally posted by JNic

did you guys see this gianni mina guy. he's playing kubot today but look at the similarities with monfils. knee strap and everything

http://www.rolandgarros.com/en_FR/ne...378321333.html

i had to look up other picks of this guy - i totally thought that was monfils...best twins on tour outside of the rochus brothers.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-17-10, 02:44 PM

Gasquet will be fade material I think after his 1st rounder. If I am reading the draw right, he gets Montanes likely in the 2nd round and should he survive there, he's up against Soderling likely. The price on Gasquet vs. Lacko is unplayable at something like -540 at Pinnacle. Not even worth a parlay play unless you're playing 4 or 5 guys together, but that's always poison to me. If that is indeed the draw, I don't think Gasquet is worth anything in the futures personally because that's two difficult matches just to get to the semis.

I'd look at Verdasco potentially down on the bottom. I know he crapped out against Melzer last tourney, but Melzer has always played him well. Verdasco should have a good draw to the semis against either Bellucci or Baghdatis.

http://www.menstennisblog.info/2010/05/open-de-nice-cote-dazur-main-draw.html

**tailmypicks** · 05-17-10, 02:48 PM

Originally posted by Tsonga

i had to look up other picks of this guy - i totally thought that was monfils...best twins on tour outside of the rochus brothers.

i dont think monfils and mina are actual twins, they just have similar faces

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-17-10, 03:33 PM

I'd suggest Mina get a haircut and stop trying to be Monfils Lite. Monfils Regular is not great right now, why would you want to be his twinkie?

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-17-10, 04:23 PM

I see Verdasco at +150. I might throw something on that for the Open de Nice. If he loses before the semis, he oughta retire. Serra and then maybe Kubot, neither is a threat or in great form. If he makes the semis, should have hedge opportunities as he'd likely be a favorite all the way through.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-17-10, 09:58 PM

Things I THINK I Know ... Tuesday, May 18th

I THINK when sticking to the two person parlay formula, starting with Montanes over Dolgopolov is a good place to go. Dologopolov has some good results on clay, but most of those are at the Challenger level. In six ATP level dirt events in 2010, the Ukranian is 6-6 with five of the wins coming in qualifying. Montanes might be a bit of an injury risk here as he withdrew from doubles last week in Madrid with a thigh problem after Gulbis beat him on the singles side. Still, at his best, Montanes won the Estoril Open and made the Monte Carlo quarters. If he is healthy, I THINK Montanes will beat the youngster. The other half of the play here lies with Baghdatis who battles Mario Ancic. Baggy has really come into some solid form on clay after barely playing on the surface in the past two years. He is 4-2 in his last six on dirt with the two losses in three sets to Ferrer & Cilic. Ancic meanwhile is just 3-7 in his last 10 overall and 1-3 on clay in 2010. Even before he left the game for a few years, Ancic disliked dirt winning barely over 50% of his matches. With Baghdatis seemingly getting more comfortable on dirt, I THINK he has enough to get it done. The combo can be had for about -125.

**noober** · 05-17-10, 11:11 PM

I don't see value in these plays. Most likely it will hit, but I don't think it's worth the price. Have in mind that many players choose to tank the week before grand slams to save up energy.

**beefcake** · 05-17-10, 11:11 PM

What? No Fergana Uzbek challenger breakdown? We got matches at 1am!! Off the top of my head,...I have no idea!!

**beefcake** · 05-17-10, 11:13 PM

Originally posted by noober

I don't see value in these plays. Most likely it will hit, but I don't think it's worth the price. Have in mind that many players choose to tank the week before grand slams to save up energy.

If only we can find the players that actually give a crap,is there anyone in the nice tourney that needs some valuable points to squeak into the RG field? That would be the player to jump on..