EP36's Tennis Talk

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-22-10, 10:07 AM

Hedging with Fish at +365. Probably gonna make a small play on the doubles final just for fun with Bhupahti-Mirnyi at +240. They just played last week and the Bryans won in the super breaker 10-4, but I like the price with the duo playing well this tournament and perhaps a small revenge spot.

**beefcake** · 08-22-10, 10:22 AM

Like anything for New Haven?

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-22-10, 10:36 AM

I could see taking the two Russian faves [Pavlyuchenkova + Dementieva] in a parlay at -140. Not fond of Dementieva's recent form, but Sanchez has been out of action since June and has not played on a hard court since the Spring. Not sure if you want to trust Dementieva here though.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-22-10, 12:26 PM

Funny to look at US Open futures again. Fish down to 60:1 - pretty sure this was about the move he made when he won Atlanta. It still cracks me up that people will blindly put money on futures before seeing a draw. If Fish wins today, it'll be funny to see how many people blindly put money on him again.

**shari91** · 08-22-10, 12:29 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

I could see taking the two Russian faves [Pavlyuchenkova + Dementieva] in a parlay at -140. Not fond of Dementieva's recent form, but Sanchez has been out of action since June and has not played on a hard court since the Spring. Not sure if you want to trust Dementieva here though.

I put that parlay in my pending and it worked out to -190 so I skipped it. I DESPISE this week. Always have so I'm not laying that much chalk on anything. I do like the parlay quite a bit though.

**limitation** · 08-22-10, 01:52 PM

EP, I am surprised a lot of people are on Fish's Bandwagon like he has a chance to win title. Let's face the reality. He is not top 10 player and never will be. It's a good match for awhile and Fish gave a good fight to keep it close. That's the only positive thing about him. While he is a good player, he makes too many unforced errors and unless the opponents give him a lot of free points, I can't see Fish winning any major championship.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-22-10, 02:38 PM

OMG, f-ing ridiculous. Fish is now 22:1 to win the Open. People must love donating money to the books. Outside of what I always rant about with waiting for draws, I think you also have to consider Fish in a best of 5 format. His fitness certainly is greatly improved, but we haven't seen him in a best of 5 yet since this improved form/fitness. That so many people apparently are putting money on a guy who has never even made a Slam semi is ridiculous.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-22-10, 02:42 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

CINCINNATI MEN'S DRAW
I like to just throw this out pre-tourney so that I can track my original thoughts and maybe it gives some insight too. No futures prices listed at the books yet.

NADAL QUARTER Nadal & Berdych are the top seeds here in this quarter. Baghdatis is a dangerous floater I think. He's in Berdych's portion of the draw. Nadal might get a little test in the 3rd round against someone like Almagro, Wawrinka or Llodra. Still, he should be good enough if he can work out the kinks in his serve. If Berdych is healthy, this should come down to Nadal-Berdych. Nadal has beaten Berdych on grass and hard courts this year. Edge Nadal. Darkhorse Baghdatis.

FEDERER QUARTER Federer & Davydenko are the top seeds. Federer is lucky to have this draw after working hard in Toronto. He'll have to work past a Kohlschreiber or Monfils in the 3rd, but he's classier and more consistent for the most part than both on this surface. Again, erase Davydenko right away here as his form is still shit. The bracket with Ferrer, Dolgopolov, Querrey and Petzschner I think may wind up pumping out the quarterfinalist from this portion of the draw. Will be interesting to see how Roger reacts to losing to Murray and what purpose he wants this tournament to serve for US Open preps as it is I believe his last before the Open. Federer has faired well here in the past and with this draw, even fatigue might not stop him from getting to the semis. Edge Federer. Darkhorse, Ferrer.

MURRAY QUARTER Murray heads into this full of confidence. Fatigue isn't something I am much worried about with him here as he was not forced to be on-court especially long in any of his Toronto matches. Verdasco is the other seed on top of this quarter. Murray may be tested with Melzer, Chardy and Gulbis in his portion. Still, his current form says he should get to the QFs. Up top, I expect Verdasco to either go out in his 1st match or make the QFs. I side more with leaving early as he could play Fish or Simon in his 1st match. Winner of that match has the inside track to the QFs. Gasquet and Youzhny play again in the 1st round. Seems like they meet a lot. Edge Murray. Darkhorse, Fish.

DJOKOVIC QUARTER This sucker is loaded. Djokovic and Soderling are the top seeds, but this portion also includes Roddick, Nalbandian and Isner. The interesting thing for me is that Djokovic has made the finals here the last two years despite Cincy usually being a miserable heat box at this point of the summer. He'll have to beat Nalbandian or Isner to get to the QFs. If it's Nalbandian, I'm not sure he will make it assuming Nalbandian has recovered after a grueling two weeks. Up top, Soderling and Roddick may be destined for a 3rd round showdown - although de Bakker could be a wildcard here. I joked about Roddick having mono a few weeks back, but that is apparently exactly what he had. Roddick used to own this tournament up until 2007. It might be hard to expect him to bounce back to full fitness even after taking last week off, but he'll be one to watch. Edge Djokovic, Darkhorse Roddick. Will have to wait on prices before I solidly pick a couple futures plays. What is interesting is all four semifinalists from Toronto could theoretically make it again this week albeit with different match-ups in the end.

Man I could have made money as a crystal ball this past week, too bad that didn't translate to good results in actual picking early in the week. 3 out of 4 darkhorses panned out into semifinalists.

**JNic** · 08-22-10, 02:43 PM

hahah it's a joke, he took some good form to wimbledon and crapped out to florian mayer with a really good draw opening up there. gotta wait for the draws like you said

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-22-10, 03:29 PM

Looking at the New Haven draw, what a crapshoot this is going to be if Baghdatis or Fish withdraws. Interesting long shots could be Malisse, de Bakker and Dolgopolov. Baghdatis and Fish despite fatigue possibilities have simple draws if they are motivated to play. Really can't envision both of them playing, especially Fish. He seems better suited to taking the week off to prep for the Open. Baghdatis may still want to get more fit, so I could see him staying in the tournament. One thing to consider with him though is that he would be the top seed and the top seed has never made the final in the five year history of this tournament. A wildcard entry has won it twice and there is usually a top 6 seed involved in the final. Might be a good tournament to take some long shots at if they put up futures.

**JNic** · 08-22-10, 03:37 PM

i love dolgopolov here, the guy has been showing flashes of brilliance this hardcourt season and if he's motivated he could get his first atp title here

**Goat Milk** · 08-22-10, 04:22 PM

someone give me odds on Blake to win New Haven

**beefcake** · 08-22-10, 04:25 PM

I think were going to see a shit ton of upsets if the weather ever improves in the northast q of the continent..

**beefcake** · 08-22-10, 04:47 PM

EP,this venus guy who made it to the final in Karshi was a qualifier...He has to play a kazak WC in the first round..I smell upset,,Im sure he has never made it that far in any tourney and I wouldnt put it past the Wild card to beat him...Might be worth a shot..
no travel angle though ,only a 9 hour drive from karshi to astana..

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-22-10, 11:02 PM

Fish has pulled out of New Haven, no shock. Baghdatis staying in.

Predictions
Baghdatis, de Bakker, Dolgopolov, Malisse

Not going to be surprised if Baghdatis tanks, but if he wins his 1st match, he'd have to tank hard against some P.O.S. competition to lose before the semis. If futures are up for this event, I will probably just sprinkle a little on Malisse, de Bakker and Dolgopolov. Weather looks like MAYBE they can squeeze in some play at New Haven, but maybe not complete matches.

Montreal looks like rain all day again. Boo.

**JNic** · 08-22-10, 11:08 PM

it's tough to go with baggy in section 1, i feel like stakhovsky might make a splash here (haha maybe even robredo).

de bakker is a no doubter, dolgopolov should have trouble with troicki but get through

but the malisse section is weird. we know istomin has some ankle problems and i saw golubev has done shit on hardcourts after winning hamburg and even withdrew with some injury. i'm just wondering about bellucci though, malisse is clearly the better hardcourter but bellucci really fixed his forehand after that loss to gulbis and really gave baghdatis a run for his money in that cincy match.

good luck with the futures though, you always seem to create great hedging opportunities

**Goat Milk** · 08-22-10, 11:13 PM

Dolgopolov won't get by Blake. Baggy's shoulder was hurting during the Fed match, though he does have an easy path into the semi's.

I think Golubev is a player to watch. He is capable of beating anyone here.

De Bakker will get to the finals in my opinion.

**JNic** · 08-22-10, 11:22 PM

no but golubev hasn't shown any of that dangerous form on the hardcourts. in hamburg he was so dangerous because his kicker had this dangerous bounce off that clay, his hardcourt game from what i've seen is just ballbashing and he is prone to hitting tons of unforced errors.

i agree with you on de bakker, the guy only lost to monfils and roddick so easily because he is mentally so weak

**Goat Milk** · 08-22-10, 11:26 PM

yeah JNic, Golubev is very inconsistent, but I think he can advance deep here if he catches fire. I wouldn't take anything from Golubev's performances dating back last year and before. He is a completely different player. He's actually motivated now. His serve was good in hamburg but I was much more impressed with the combination of power and accuracy he was getting from his groundstrokes. He's not a clay court player either. Hard courts suit his game much better in my opinion. But he did have some kind of injury a few days ago so we'll see how he is now.

I am going to get bashed for saying Blake will beat Dolgo.

**JNic** · 08-22-10, 11:31 PM

yea i think istomin, golubev, de bakker and dolgo are gonna make a serious splash in years to come. these guys are ******* talented

**GirlCanCapToo** · 08-22-10, 11:47 PM

I will be playing Bellucci and De Baaker or Marchenko. Marchenko's draw to the quarters is quite easy, where I think he could give De Baaker a lot of trouble at much longer odds.

Bellucci's hard court game is really starting to come together. He's got a very big serve and a huge forehand, as well as a desire to prove he can win on hard courts (coming back from down a break in the 2nd set and down a break in the 3rd set to force a breaker vs baggy).

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 08-23-10, 04:06 AM

The ballbashers will probably struggle this week cos of the rain and damp, makes teh ball travel slowly through the air. If it goes indoors though, istomin and golubev are very happy there.

**PetrGasparik** · 08-23-10, 06:56 AM

new haven futures in bet365, see below

malisse@9, dolgopolov@13 amd de bakker@21 looks good

badhdatis is top seed i think, so no play for me

Marcos Baghdatis 4.00 Fernando Gonzalez 9.00
Xavier Malisse 9.00 Thomaz Bellucci 13.00
Alexandr Dolgopolov 13.00 James Blake 15.00
Denis Istomin 15.00 Florian Mayer 17.00
Thiemo De Bakker 21.00 Tommy Robredo 21.00
Viktor Troicki 21.00 Victor Hanescu 23.00
Andrey Golubev 34.00 Sergiy Stakhovsky 34.00
Leonardo Mayer 41.00 Andreas Seppi 41.00
Taylor Dent 41.00 Jarkko Nieminen 41.00
Lukas Lacko 51.00 Benjamin Becker 51.00
Juan-Ignacio Chela 51.00 Michael Berrer 81.00
Evgeny Korolev 81.00 Simon Greul 101.00
Arnaud Clement 101.00 Horacio Zeballos 101.00
Igor Andreev 101.00 Ilia Marchenko 126.00
Donald Young 126.00 Frederico Gil 126.00
Marco Chiudinelli 151.00 Florent Serra 151.00
Daniel Brands 151.00 Jan Hajek 151.00
Stephane Robert 151.00 Peter Luczak 151.00
Pablo Cuevas 151.00 Pere Riba 201.00
Potito Starace 201.00 Eduardo Schwank 251.00
Maximo Gonzalez 251.00 Lukasz Kubot 251.00
Andreas Beck 251.00

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-23-10, 07:27 AM

Not gonna bet anything today most likely because it looks like today is going to be washed out and I hate having money tied up. Will monitor, but forecast looks iffy.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-23-10, 08:45 AM

MONDAY CHALLENGER PLAY: STEBE +100
Stebe draws Bulgarian Gregor Dimitrov at the clay Challenger in Geneva today. The German, Stebe, made the final of a clay Challenger earlier this summer in his home country. Since then, he is 2-2 on the surface. The interesting thing here is that these two have a common opponent faced on dirt in the past month and that is Blaz Kavcic who won a hard court Challenger last week. Stebe beat Kavcic in three tough sets in qualis at the Umag ATP tournament in late July whereas Dimitrov was wiped out by him in four sets in Davis Cup in early July. The sets Dimitrov lost where 6-0, 6-1 & 6-3. You can probably attribute some of it to nerves playing for his country on foreign soil, but you can still gather some info there. Neither guy is fond of dirt at this stage in their careers, but Dimitrov especially looks to be better on harder surfaces right now. Both guys are just 19, so anything can feasibly happen here.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-23-10, 09:09 AM

Stebe has already flipped to -125.

**rpdiddy** · 08-23-10, 09:10 AM

EP,

You're moving lines in 3rd world countries. If Stebe goes down they may throw you a parade!

**PetrGasparik** · 08-23-10, 09:32 AM

got Stebe @2.0 on bet365

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-23-10, 10:41 AM

PARLAY: MAYER + BROWN [+132]
Going with the two guys here who haven't been playing almostly exclusively on clay all year. Mayer draws Luczak. Mayer made the QFs last year at this event and has a couple hard court matches under his belt this summer. The results are not great at 1-2, but the losses lately to Anderson and Istomin were competitive. Luczak last played on hard courts in March, so he has to get match conditioned right away after playing on a slower surface. The conditions could aid his transition, but Mayer should do enough here. Brown made it through qualis in New Haven and we know what to expect from him against the clay specialist Hajek. Big serve. If he gets it in, he should win. If he doesn't, he'll get beat. That he already made it through the conditions in qualifying even if they were not as odd as today should help Brown's confidence. I'd tread lightly with all these picks in New Haven this week.

**beefcake** · 08-23-10, 10:42 AM

Cant believe azarenka retired again..what, 2 days to play and then you lose in breaker and all of a sudden what happened?

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-23-10, 10:46 AM

ANDREEV-CLEMENT OVER 23 [-110]
Andreev has traditionally played well here, but could start slow having not played on a hard surface in months + he's not in top form in any case. Clement has been played hard surfaces in the summer, but missing out on the main draws of most. Can see a superbly poor match with momentum swings if Andreev remembers how to play on the surface. Guessing it goes 3.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-23-10, 10:51 AM

Stebe is done. Oh well betting on a match with two teenagers, what do I expect.

**beefcake** · 08-23-10, 11:12 AM

I don't know why stepanek is that high..Considering how much he has played and the injurys Im tempted to take cuevas

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-23-10, 11:48 AM

That match is going to make people sick. Stepanek won a couple in qualis, but certainly is as you say in piss poor form. Cuevas though never plays on hard courts. Wouldn't surprise me to see one of these schmucks retire mid-match.

Pretty much carbon copy Blake-Riba. Same mold there. Betting on either means we have a gambling problem.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-23-10, 01:24 PM

Slow Mo-Joe to start the week again. Maybe I can keep from going like 2-10 on M-W again this week. Take it LIGHT.