EP36's Tennis Talk

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-20-10, 01:08 PM

Challenger play wins in straights. Kuznetsova bitch slapping Zheng. Zheng might be the charter female member of my no-fly list. Last couple times I picked anything with her it was way off.

Yeah I am contemplating something with Baghdatis in addition to the total. I think 2/4 matches on the men's side are likely to have straight up underdog wins. Would have rated it Fish, Baghdatis or Roddick, Daydenko in order. Davydenko being by bar I think the least likely.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-20-10, 05:28 PM

Only playing the total in Nadal-Baghdatis for cash. Making a play on Baghdatis at +275 for SBR points to just for kicks. Also small cash plays with the mad math formula for both winning in 3: Nadal +280, Baghdatis +594. So long as they get to a 3rd, ya get some cash!

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-20-10, 05:55 PM

One down, one to go on the parlay. Federer in straights 6-4, 7-5. Let's go Azarenka.

**UpsetSpecial09** · 08-20-10, 06:36 PM

EP I have Nadal to win and also have him to win in 2 sets to close out a nice parlay...you just taking Bag for the value or you really think he can win?

He has played pretty well and Rafa has struggled at some points but always seems to come through in the clutch when he needs to.

Also have Azarenka to close out another parlay. I hedged with Bartoli winning 2 because I dont see her winning in straights and the value on it at +520 made it a great way to hedge at a good price.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-20-10, 06:38 PM

Baghdatis certainly can win. He will need to serve very well, but Rafa is definitely beatable on any given day on hard courts.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-20-10, 08:32 PM

Sweet. 3rd set, guaranteed profit on the 2-1 winners. Now rooting for Baghdatis, although I think Nadal will take it home.

**limitation** · 08-20-10, 08:49 PM

Nadal always starts slow and just when you think he is in trouble, he comes out with a hammer.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-20-10, 08:58 PM

Bring it home Baghdatis! Baggy Baggy Baggy! Get that +9500 into the semis.COME ON!

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-20-10, 09:03 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Only playing the total in Nadal-Baghdatis for cash. Making a play on Baghdatis at +275 for SBR points to just for kicks. Also small cash plays with the mad math formula for both winning in 3: Nadal +280, Baghdatis +594. So long as they get to a 3rd, ya get some cash!

Gimme some of that +594 and take that SBR book for putting the line up for once, +275. Baggy +9500 to win it all still alive. Federer +475 still alive. Got a guaranteed finalist. Considering how the week started, tonight just got me up.

**Dr.Gonzo** · 08-20-10, 09:06 PM

Fed looks like he has the tournament in the bag. Will be well into the red from here.

**shari91** · 08-20-10, 09:07 PM

Great job EP!!! I was envisioning a meltdown when he blew those 2 match points but I'm happy Baggy pulled through for you.

**Goat Milk** · 08-20-10, 09:15 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Gimme some of that +594 and take that SBR book for putting the line up for once, +275. Baggy +9500 to win it all still alive. Federer +475 still alive. Got a guaranteed finalist. Considering how the week started, tonight just got me up.

sex

**TennisBabe** · 08-20-10, 09:17 PM

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-20-10, 09:36 PM

Azarenka completes the parlay. If only Monday-Wednesday could be stricken from the record.

**Stacocakes** · 08-20-10, 11:11 PM

Great call with Baghdatis Eagles.

**nicsbr** · 08-21-10, 07:28 AM

u come with challenger plays today?

Reister, J v Paire, B

Ramirez Hidalgo, R v Ramos-Vinolas, A

**WIZARDOFBEANTOWN** · 08-21-10, 07:37 AM

baghdatis hell ya

**Rainman12** · 08-21-10, 11:13 AM

ramirez-hidalgo just burnt me

2-0 3rd set and serving for 3-0 and got rolled.

**necro** · 08-21-10, 11:17 AM

Niice!

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-21-10, 11:54 AM

CHALLENGER PLAY: ALVES +145
Going light on the weekend plays as they have been a bit of a blood bath for me in recent weeks. Nothing here really points to Alves beating Mello, does it? Mello is 7-0 against him lifetime, he's beat him three times in the past 12 months and twice in 2010. Mello is also the "form" player right now on this Brazlian hard court swing with this being his second finals appearance in the last three tournaments. He has played a lot of tennis in August though and that is part of the reason I'm going against him today. Three straight weeks with very little in the way of a breather may catch up with Mello and Alves may be the motivated one today to break through against Mello and win a title. Mello is 11-8 in Challenger finals, 1-2 this year. Alves is 5-8 in Challenger finals, 0-1 this year. With all the factors suggestedly pointing toward Mello, I'm surprised he's just -185 here. Take it for what it's worth. Starts at 1pm ET and Bwin.com has a live scoreboard.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-21-10, 12:47 PM

Think I am going to adopt a mostly different game plan for the weekend. Riding the Federer & Baghdatis futures. Going for the mad math formula of taking 2-1 set winners in 3 matches.

FEDERER +295
BAGHDATIS +642

RODDICK +280
FISH +405

WOZNIACKI +325
KUZNETSOVA +370

One unit on each side, just need 2 of the 3 matches to go to 3 sets to take home a decent profit. Also will play:

FEDERER-BAGHDATIS OVER 22.5 [-130]

**rpdiddy** · 08-21-10, 01:06 PM

EP,

Did you see that Alves was down 5-3, serving down 0-40, comes back to hold serve and ends up winning 4 unanswered when he looked dead to win the first set 7-5. Nice comeback. Hopefully he breaks Mello early in the second. Huge momentum swing!

**rpdiddy** · 08-21-10, 01:23 PM

There's our break. 3-1 Alves, in the second set, serving.

**rpdiddy** · 08-21-10, 01:33 PM

Why was this match suspended?

**WIZARDOFBEANTOWN** · 08-21-10, 02:48 PM

rain

**rpdiddy** · 08-21-10, 03:06 PM

We need some DejaVu action here!

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-21-10, 03:17 PM

Alves blew that damn match pretty nicely. Up a break in the 2nd, gave it right back and just never really got back on track losing in 3. Oh well. Told ya the weekend usually kicks my butt.

**rpdiddy** · 08-21-10, 03:22 PM

Came so close to knocking out Mello in the second and for whatever reason he decided to wet the bed.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-21-10, 05:08 PM

1 for 1 on the Mad Math plays so far. Fish +405, so a +3.05 profit on the match. Yee hawww.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-21-10, 07:23 PM

Baghdatis had nothing today to trouble Federer. Crappy 1st serve % finally caught up to him. Got Federer still alive at +475. Should have a good hedge opp with Fish.

**limitation** · 08-21-10, 07:28 PM

EP, is it fair to say that Fish has very low chance of beating Fed? I can't see any possible way how Fish can trouble Fed. Fish has made a lot of unforced errors all week long and if it's not for his opponents mistakes, he wouldn't be here at the Final. Not to mention he still had to play Doubles and a lot of three sets matches. I think it will be a walkover 2 sets for Fed tomorrow.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-21-10, 07:53 PM

It's going to be a great hedge price. Pinnacle opened Fish at +275. I wouldn't say Fish has no chance. Federer at this stage is just as likely to show up and make a ton of errors himself tomorrow, although I think he wants this one badly. He's not a lock though. Fish has to get more 1st serves in. He's been getting by in the low 50s or worse today against Roddick, but that will bite you sooner or later - Baghdatis is an example. If Fish can get 60% in on 1st serves, he'll keep the sets tight and have a chance.

**Dr.Gonzo** · 08-21-10, 09:12 PM

Fed is not losing to Fish. He looks like he wants this tournament and that is enough for me. Fed in straight sets and I'm not hedging.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-21-10, 09:31 PM

I have no problem hedging here with the ridiculous price the books are giving here. Federer at -400? Fish at +335? Hell yeah. One unit at +335. If Fish loses, Fed cashes at +375. If Fish wins, he cashes technically minus the Federer future at +235. Can't argue with that for my money on a guaranteed profit. If the price was lower and Fish wasn't getting much, I wouldn't hedge - but this is too good to pass up personally.

**Dr.Gonzo** · 08-21-10, 09:52 PM

If you would take Fish at those lines then it's a good bet. I wouldn't so I will be passing. Hedging for the sake of ensuring a profit is -EV. Good luck with the Fed future