EP36's Tennis Talk

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-18-10, 02:41 PM

Zakopalova either wins this set or the handicap gets punished severely. Giving those Fish winnings right back.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-18-10, 03:35 PM

HEWITT +240
Can't really say Soderling struggled at Toronto as it was his first matches on hard courts after playing clay in July. He did however have a tough time against both Gulbis and Nalbandian, eventually losing to Nalbandian in 3. Nalbandian picked apart the 2nd serve of Soderling and that might be Hewitt's focus today. I think motivation could be a huge factor here and Hewitt clearly will be the one with more of that I believe as he's struggled with injury and form. He needs confidence heading into the US Open. It is a year later, but Hewitt beat Soderling on this court last year and did it with flair - fending off match points in the 2nd set before winning in the 3rd. Hewitt has played very well in Cincinnati in the past. If he serves well, I think he gives himself a shot. Fade it.

**Wilforth** · 08-18-10, 04:00 PM

BOL on Hewitt

**limitation** · 08-18-10, 04:24 PM

EP, what do you think of taking spread on either De bakker or Istomin?

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-18-10, 04:36 PM

Don't really like either. Roddick showed what he can do when he's focused in the 1st & 3rd sets against Stakhovsky. I'd only expect him to get better if he makes a little run in this tournament. de Bakker was what +2.5? I'd want at least 3 to feel like a realistic shot at a push. The two matches they played this year wouldn't have won a handicap like today's. I'm not real sure about the Istomin-Federer handicap. That's a sizeable number, but Istomin just is not a consistent player who I think will trouble Federer over the entirety of a match. Could he compete in a tight set or maybe even two? Sure, but he just as easily could lose 6-3, 6-3 and Federer covers the spread. Don't see an edge to playing the handicap in either really on any side. I've seen several people picking Istomin to actually win tonight and I just don't see that. I don't see a fatigue angle with Federer having had now 72 hours of rest from the Sunday final by the time his match starts tonight or thereabouts. I think he showed in Toronto that he wanted to make a statement and he played reasonably well. I think he'll be looking to carry that over this week and he has a fairly simple draw if he's focused.

**limitation** · 08-18-10, 04:47 PM

Thanks for your opinions, EP. Gonna stay away from those handicap. I need to make something positive for the day after 0-3 start.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-18-10, 07:24 PM

Need one of the infamous COME ONs!!!!! early in the 3rd Hewitt.

**limitation** · 08-18-10, 07:29 PM

EP, how crazy was I to lay that -775 chalk on Fed to win 2 units? Yea I was desperate after going down 0-3 today and down 4 units. So I had to unload on Fed. Desperate time call for desperate actions. Was crazy to do it.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-18-10, 07:29 PM

I guess it was a why do you pick now to suck, COME ON! Oh well. Another loss coming, what else is new.

Pretty crazy, but I thought he was going to win pretty easily today. So far, so good.

**limitation** · 08-18-10, 07:31 PM

Cheering you for on Hewitt by the way. Just didn't have the balls to bet on it after Wawrinka killed my two parlays earlier today. Yea, I was dumb enough to build two of my parlays around Wawa.

**limitation** · 08-18-10, 07:37 PM

Just my luck. Istomin retired.

**limitation** · 08-18-10, 07:48 PM

Hewitt coming back!

**limitation** · 08-18-10, 08:10 PM

Tough break, EP. Hewitt run out of gas.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-18-10, 08:22 PM

Pissed me off that he got the break back and didn't at least get to a tie break. Oh well, another nice losing day. Been the case all week. Hoping one of my futures is gonna cash this weekend and help bail me out this week. Will try some more shit tomorrow. yeeee!

**mighty maron** · 08-19-10, 05:11 AM

congrats on all that you do

**AsRequested** · 08-19-10, 05:23 AM

Keep it up, the success will come back again soon.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-19-10, 08:28 AM

THURSDAY DOUBLES PLAY: RAM-KNOWLE -135
This duo draws the team of Robredo-Stepanek who have already played one match. They beat up the absolute horse shit teaming of Ginepri and Sweeting. Knowle & Ram have been teaming up since April with good results to show, a 13-9 mark that included a trip to the semifinals at the French Open. These are two very experienced doubles players who pretty much exclusively stick to doubles. On US hard courts this summer, they are a tame 2-2 with a semifinal run in DC followed with a loss last week in Toronto to an experienced duo. Robredo & Stepanek are teaming for the first time and that is always a formula I prefer to go against. Also factoring in that Robredo is due to play in New Haven, CT at the Pilot Pen next week and I think he'll talk that spineless POS Stepanek into makign a quick exit here so he can get to CT to prep for that tournament. Early start here, 10am ET for anyone who wants some more fade material.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-19-10, 08:46 AM

MURRAY-GULBIS OVER 22 [-120]
Murray struggled some in his opener yesterday, playing two solid sets in which he cruised past Chardy, but a troubling 2nd set where he was broken on serve three times. He did a tremendous job of making Chardy pay for 2nd serves where he won 69% of the points and broke the Frenchman in 6 of 14 opportunities. Gulbis really battled against Melzer and was not broken on serve, saving all six break points. He got his 1st serve in over 60% which he'll need to do at least at that level, probably much better to contend with Murray. Murray owns a 4-0 advantage with the last meeting coming at the US Open in 2009 where Murray ousted Gulbis in straight sets with two of the sets going to 7-5. With the courts playing very quick in Cincy, Gulbis can stay with Murray here if he can get that 1st serve in consistently and not make stupid errors. We all know Gulbis is a light switch player, one day he's on, the next he's off. Right now, he's looked more on with solid matches in the past two weeks.

**TopGun1** · 08-19-10, 08:53 AM

EP, I'd already played the Ram/Knowle play - but just added more following your write up. Agree entirely, Ram and Knowle are highly ranked doubles specialists who have played together extensively. Have to take them here against a new duo, I think our days start off well today!

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-19-10, 09:03 AM

FISH -150
Fish draws Gasquet today. Continuing to like Fish this week as he has shown a good edge in playing these tight matches against Simon & Verdasco. His serve has been tough to break and he's come through on the big points. Gasquet has scored two relatively easy wins over Youzhny & Berrer, not exactly Murderer's Row. Just looking at the entirety of their bodies of work in recent times and for the year, Fish has been much much better on this surface. Gasquet will make Fish work, but I think the improved fitness of Fish will continue to be a winning factor.

**WIZARDOFBEANTOWN** · 08-19-10, 09:58 AM

good luck ep imo fish 2

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-19-10, 10:05 AM

A mostly endless string of losses looks to be continuing. Doubles play blew a break lead and then had two chances to break again, blew it and got Rick Rolled in the tie break in set 1. Already blew double break point in the opening game of set 2. I would quit posting picks, but I might as well let the smart people who fade me make some money while I go broke.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-19-10, 10:16 AM

Well now maybe Robredo told Stepanek to quit f-ing around. 4-1 in the 2nd for Ram-Knowle. Might at least get to the super breaker.

**TopGun1** · 08-19-10, 10:38 AM

BANG!! 2x winner to start the day, nice one EP!!

That was way too close though ............

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-19-10, 10:39 AM

My Negative Nelly attitude wins! So sad to be so excited about starting off with a tight win, but that's what losing streaks do. 10-8 in the super breaker for Ram-Knowle to secure the win. Right on TG.

**rpdiddy** · 08-19-10, 10:40 AM

Great call EP

**limitation** · 08-19-10, 10:55 AM

Let's start that winning streak EP.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-19-10, 12:24 PM

Yay! Fish wins. 2 wins in a row. Murray needs to buckle down to give this over a shot.

**limitation** · 08-19-10, 12:26 PM

EP, like I said before hot streaks and cold streaks will balance out in the end. You are due to go on winning streak and it starts today.

**limitation** · 08-19-10, 12:32 PM

EP, do you think Gulbis is under rated by people and bookies? He has good service game, good serve percentage, and he rarely get broken.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-19-10, 12:35 PM

I think you have to pick your spots with Gulbis. So talented, but also so fragile mentally. He's one of those players where when you think he's got it figured out and is on a run, he falls flat on his face.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-19-10, 12:39 PM

Break for Murray, just what was needed.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-19-10, 12:46 PM

NADAL-BENNETEAU OVER 20 [-114]
I just think this total is a tad low. If Benneteau is here to play and he serves the way he is capable of, I see him keeping the sets fairly close. He's only been broken twice in two matches and those both came in that fixer-upper match with Llodra. Nadal's own serve has been getting him through, but his service games always seem to feature a chance here or there for his opponent to break if they can get past the 40-40 scoreline. Benneteau also seems to like this Cincy surface, winning four of this last five here - winning a set off Murray last year.

**limitation** · 08-19-10, 12:47 PM

Cash that over. Keep it going EP.

**limitation** · 08-19-10, 12:58 PM

EP, Can I get your opinions on Clijsters vs. Kanepi match? I am thinking about taking the spread on Kanepi at +5 -145. Granted Clijsters is a better player but she had to play long and grueling match against Sands last night. It went to 3 sets and took over 2 hours even though Clijsters was -1000 favorite. Factor in the fact that she is a mother and it will become issue on both mentally and physically. I feel like Kanepi can hang in the match long enough to give a shot at the spread. Not saying she will win but feel like she will cover the spread.