2024 Tennis Tour Season Thread, Picks and Discussion

[Jeff_Black]

Spot on with that one. Sasha was clearly the better player and could have won it in straights. I'm surprised he's an underdog to Medvedev, but maybe it's a match-up thing, kind of like it was against Alcaraz where he had the advantage..

I think he legit stunned him with how well he played and how quickly he came out of the blocks, especially on the serve, was almost unreturnable. Would have needed to drop off big time for it to happen. And like you said unlucky not to win in three with some nerves closing off the game possibly. Alcaraz won a few great points in a row to take that tiebreak away but the QF onward is where you want to play your best tennis and Zverev did exactly that. And amazingly so he didn't look phased or drop his level much after losing that tiebreak. Just straight back to business.

Not sure what to make of that SF or the other one but they're Friday so all the guys get that bit of extra rest.

Tough one there -- right side, wrong result. Not often you see 5-1 tiebreaker leads lost on the men's side. Despite being a warrior, Rublev's emotions can always get the best of him.

Yeah we saw that with the De Minaur game, two tiebreaks he was in a very winnable position to win and a few poor errors led to them slipping away. This one he played some great points to take the lead but then Sinner did as well to get back into it. Sinner not dropping a set going into his first Australian Open SF is wild.

[Jeff_Black]

15 - 32 - 1, -13.929u

Australian Open 2000, SF
Womens Singles
Dayana Yastremska vs Qinwen Zheng
Moneyline: Dayana Yastremska, 2.74 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Feel like there isn't going to be much value backing against Sabalenka with the way she has gone other then laying an egg in that Brisbane Final to Rybakina but she's bought here form here which is what I feel it'd take for anyone left to beat her. That match likely feels like the Final to me and either player will be a step up from the girls these two have played against anyway.

[Jeff_Black]

15 - 33 - 1, -14.929u

Australian Open 2000, SF
Men’s Singles
Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev
Moneyline: Daniil Medvedev, 1.787 on Pinnacle
Stake: 5u play

Have had this in mind since the SF matchup was determined and ignoring any potential letdowns after that Alcaraz win or either players form going into the SF they’ve still both earned the right for a chance in the Final Four going into the final. Both these guys have shown on hard courts they can match it with anyone and know each other well enough but I have Medvedev favoured here with the odds being right. Having watched the odds drift I can understand that but Hurkacz has always been a tough and tricky match up for Medvedev. Hes made five finals on the hard court slams with one trophy to show for it and this will be a huge opportunity for him with Novak out of the draw. And even if he had been there with how poorly he played that SF anyone would have fancied their chances

[asiagambler]

Is Medvedev having stamina issues ??

He says after every match he is so tired

I noticed 5th set against Hurk, in-play odds made him a clear underdog when he was clear favourite prematch

[slayer14]

Djokovic just lost against Sinner, that is kinda of a shock.

[slayer14]

medevev is a beast from russia

[Jeff_Black]

16 - 33 - 1, -10.994u

Australian Open 2000, Final
Mens Singles
Daniil Medvedev vs Janik Sinner
Moneyline: Daniil Medvedev, 3.43 on Pinnacle
Stake: 3u play

[Jeff_Black]

It could possibly be worth waiting until the last minute before playing this but obviously that doesn't do anyone any service here, and also more importantly for any discussions and thoughts on the game.
So the interesting thing I find is there have been few instances where the guy who has played 10 times has not featured in a Final. It seems the bookies are a bit off when it comes to adjusting their odds. 2022 when Nadal won as a 2.70 underdog, 2017 when Federer won as a 2.10 underdog, and 2014 when Stan won as a 5/1 underdog (possibly more). Federer beat Cilic in 2018 as well in five sets, not sure if he covered? It was close but another opportunity without the big 3 and Murray and the 10x Champ here.
Definitely have these guys closer then the odds indicate. To me previous (perceived) form isn't always the biggest indicator as it has shown in other matches. Experience as we have seen has been a factor, and Medvedev will see this as a huge opportunity being his first final not playing Nadal or Djokovic. Interested to see how Sinner handles things if it doesn't go his way. He's also started solidly. Im also interested to see how he copes when he's not serving as incredibly well like he did against Djokovic. We saw Zverev's dropped off against Medvedev after being near perfect against Alcaraz. We saw Medvedev pick up his serving to be almost unreturnable after being very loose and sloppy in that Semi against Zverev. He will know and have the belief that he can weather the storm if things aren't going his way as he has done in his other five set matches.
Matchup wise I think it plays well into his hands. He can use his pace and speed/positioning to neutralise Sinner's power and is no stranger to shortening points and mixing up his slices like he did against Zverev.
After hurting from that loss in 2022 and even 2019 I think he will be dialled in from the get go and ready for battle.

[Conqueror]

JB

I made this same play but didn't post it.
On paper, Sinner should win this going. But realistically, this was a tourney for either Djokovic or Medvedev.
We'll see how this plays in the end. I actually have Medvedev winning in 4 sets.

[Jeff_Black]

JB
I made this same play but didn't post it.
On paper, Sinner should win this going. But realistically, this was a tourney for either Djokovic or Medvedev.
We'll see how this plays in the end. I actually have Medvedev winning in 4 sets.

Yeah very curious to see how it pans out. It was either dog or pass for mine

Probably safer plays worth considering but I’ll feel silly if Sinner comfortably wins in three sets lol. Medvedev has been one of the better guys since Wimbledon, but often gets lost in the Alcaraz and Sinner hype and we’ll see how much he’s learnt from the tough losses

[Jeff_Black]

Montpellier ATP 250, also known as Open Sud De France on after the Aus Open. Some good names in that draw, will be following and making plays accordingly on that tournament too.
Find it interesting that Rune has signed up, loves indoors and would be disappointed he bowed out earlier the year before. Sinner went the same path and won that title…obviously he won’t be defending it but might look at an outsider to win the tournament.

[Conqueror]

Yeah very curious to see how it pans out. It was either dog or pass for mine

Probably safer plays worth considering but I’ll feel silly if Sinner comfortably wins in three sets lol. Medvedev has been one of the better guys since Wimbledon, but often gets lost in the Alcaraz and Sinner hype and we’ll see how much he’s learnt from the tough losses

It doesn't matter the sport. Never bet against a team/player that get their desired result. Medvedev's journey up to this point is far from impressive. But he's been grinding out the desired results.

[Jeff_Black]

It doesn't matter the sport. Never bet against a team/player that get their desired result. Medvedev's journey up to this point is far from impressive. But he's been grinding out the desired results.

I felt like I did that when I took Medvedev in the SF and Zverev in the QF heh so it has a point.

[dhristov211]

16 - 33 - 1, -10.994u

Australian Open 2000, Final
Mens Singles
Daniil Medvedev vs Janik Sinner
Moneyline: Daniil Medvedev, 3.43 on Pinnacle
Stake: 3u play

Great bet, that was a crap result

[Jeff_Black]

Great bet, that was a crap result

The man himself said it all, gave it everything he had and came up short. Might have been able to be less passive when in front but also without a doubt fatigue kicked in later on as he was a step behind Sinner for a lot of that last said just hanging on. Gave it all he had and left nothing on the court so it's not surprising he isnt as disappointed with that loss.

[Jeff_Black]

16 - 34 - 1, -13.994u

ATP Montpellier 250, Mens Singles
Futures/Outrights: To Win the Tournament
Holger Rune, 3.27 on Pinnacle
Stake: 3u play

The top half of the draw feels pretty soft and a clear path to the Finals. He looked good in Brisbane before falling to Dimitrov and no doubt wants to get his season back on track with a trophy here. Monfils/Coric seem to be his toughest opponents and if he can navigate them he should have a good shot for the trophy. He also showed he was no pushover on indoor hard courts last year in Turin, and has won the Paris Masters 1000 the year before and played well there in previous years. On the bottom half Bublik and FAA seem like tough competitors if he plays them and was half tempted to do Bublik but thought the odds were too short. Realistically Rune is a step above talent wise here and has a pretty open draw on a surface he likes.

[Jeff_Black]

Also known as Open Sud De France

ATP Montpellier 250, R1
Mens Singles
Michael Mmoh vs Benjamin Bonzi
Moneyline: Benjamin Bonzi, 1.628 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

ATP Montpellier 250, R1
Mens Singles
Harold Mayot vs Lucas Pouille
Moneyline: Lucas Pouille, 2.17 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Montpellier 250, R1
Mens Singles
Andy Murray vs Benoit Paire
Moneyline: Benoit Paire, 3.92 on PinnacleSta
Stake: 1u play

Goodness I'm probably going to regret getting on Paire, but with Murray looking like he's 56 instead of 36 in that loss to Etcheverry it's the first time I've felt the finish line is near for him. Paire has lost 4 matches in a row, all on the Challenger circuit and with their previous matchups being no bearing on their current form, these are the types of matches Paire wins, when no one expects him too. Especially when there is an opportunity in the main draw to get points/prize money.
Murray is also expected to play in Qatar and Dubai in the month of February so interested to see where his level/motives are at. Needs match play to better his level and ranking but at his age and with his issues gee whiz that's still a lot of tournaments.

[Maizey]

Murray looks very close to the finish line. His obvious limp as he left the court says it all.

It’s so hard to back Paire when he doesn’t care half the time. I suppose he feels obligated to give effort when he’s on his home soil. He did appear to care today.

[Jeff_Black]

Murray looks very close to the finish line. His obvious limp as he left the court says it all. It’s so hard to back Paire when he doesn’t care half the time. I suppose he feels obligated to give effort when he’s on his home soil. He did appear to care today.

For sure, Murray’s body is telling him to quit but he doesn’t want to. I don’t know how many more losses he can take with the way he has been going. Even guys and greats like Federer who had remarkable good fortune with injuries had their bodies catch up with them eventually. He must be getting reasonable appearance fees to play in some of these tournaments, Dubai for example.
Paire nearly blew that multiple times himself, that tiebreaker, gosh…

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Montpellier 250, R1
Mens Singles
Hugo Gaston vs Denis Shapovalov
Moneyline: Hugo Gaston, 2.15 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Montpellier 250, R1
Mens Singles
Maximillian Marterer vs Arthur Cazaux
Set Handicap: Arthur Cazaux -1.5, 2.08 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

18 - 37 - 1, -13.994u

ATP Montpellier 250, R1
Mens Singles
Flavio Cobolli vs Gael Monfils
Set Handicap: Gael Monfils -1.5 Sets, 2.04 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Montpellier 250, R2
Mens Singles
Benoit Paire vs Harold Mayot
Moneyline: Benoit Paire, 2.50 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Montpellier 250, R2
Mens Singles
Alexander Bublik vs Denis Shapovalov
Moneyline: Alexander Bublik, 1.90 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Maizey]

18 - 37 - 1, -13.994u

ATP Montpellier 250, R1
Mens Singles
Flavio Cobolli vs Gael Monfils
Set Handicap: Gael Monfils -1.5 Sets, 2.04 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Montpellier 250, R2
Mens Singles
Benoit Paire vs Harold Mayot
Moneyline: Benoit Paire, 2.50 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Montpellier 250, R2
Mens Singles
Alexander Bublik vs Denis Shapovalov
Moneyline: Alexander Bublik, 1.90 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Wow, that trio includes guys that are so tough to back. Add Fognini and Kyrgios to that group and you’d have my handful of guys that I almost never bet because they drive me crazy. All of them can tank at moment’s notice.

[Jeff_Black]

Wow, that trio includes guys that are so tough to back. Add Fognini and Kyrgios to that group and you’d have my handful of guys that I almost never bet because they drive me crazy. All of them can tank at moment’s notice.

Yeah some wishful thinking with the odds on hand, probably wont be backing Paire any time soon!

19 - 39 - 1, -15.094u

ATP Montpellier 250, QF
Mens Singles
Alexander Shevchenko vs Alexander Bublik
Total Games: Over 22.5 Games, 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Montpellier 250, QF
Mens Singles
Borna Coric vs Flavio Cobolli
Moneyline: Borna Coric, 1.632 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

[Jeff_Black]

21 - 39 - 1, -12.887u

ATP Montpellier 250, SF
Mens Singles
Felix Auger Aliassime vs Alexander Bublik
Total Games: Over 23.5 Games, 1.961 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Funnily enough, the top four seeds are in the SF for this tournament. All very good indoor hard court players. Coric and Bublik have done well here before. Coric is aiming to reach his first Final since that very impressive Cincinnati Masters title run in 2022. FAA has enlisted to play in Marseille next week but I guess travel and all that isn't really a problem it's just interesting to see where his year will be at after a weirdly bad 2023 which got better as he defended his Basel title.

As for the other events...Dallas. Unsurprisingly the field are all crafty big servers with big power games. Still waiting on Qualifiers for that and the Cordoba field to be determined but as usual the Cordoba field is uninspiring. Might be worth keeping an eye out on the clay rats for early upsets but naked eye test last year it felt like an extremely slow court compared to the other ones in South America.

Oh and Murray is there too, another first round fade on the cards? Possibly!

[Jeff_Black]

22 - 40 - 1, -14.926u

ATP Montpellier 250, Final
Mens Singles
Borna Coric vs Alexander Bublik
Moneyline: Alexander Bublik, 1.97 on Pinnacle
Stake: 5u play

Two guys with polarising styles but I personally have Bublik the favoured guy in the matchup and with the odds on offer, it’s a play. Hard to make Coric’s run here and even so his SF opponent who retired hurt, it seemed like he didn’t get a lot out of his serves and forehand for most of what he could play. Bublik has been serving well here getting plenty of aces, incorporating slicing/volleys and mixing it up. He has also been composed needing to come back from a set down in each of his matches so he will be ready for a battle here. FAA wasn’t that even that bad in their SF it’s just Bublik was relentless and the confidence he gets from fighting back also contributes to the style he can play when he’s on song.

[Maizey]

I’d agree except for the fatigue factor. Tough to recover after three consecutive 3-set comebacks.

[Maizey]

He has also been composed needing to come back from a set down in each of his matches so he will be ready for a battle here.

That was the key. I never would have guessed he could do it again, but I guess the confidence of doing it so many times makes you believe that you can do it again.

[Jeff_Black]

That was the key. I never would have guessed he could do it again, but I guess the confidence of doing it so many times makes you believe that you can do it again.

Yeah it’s unheard of in this instance. His matches were roughly averaging 2:20 thereabouts who isn’t too ridiculous considering it’s indoors. But many factors from his previous matches were in play today too.

[Jeff_Black]

23 - 40 - 1, -10.076u

ATP Cordoba 250, R1
Mens Singles
Facundo Bagnis vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Moneyline: Juan Manuel Cerundolo, 2.12 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Cordoba 250, R1
Mens Singles
Albert Ramos Vinolas vs Pedro Cachin
Handicap: Pedro Cachin -1.0, 1.917 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Dallas 250, Men’s Singles
Futures/Outrights: To win the tournament
Adrian Mannarino, 7.25 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

23 - 42 - 1, -12.076u

ATP Dallas 250, R2
Mens Singles
Taro Daniel vs Tommy Paul
Moneyline: Taro Daniel, 4.00
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

23 - 43 - 1, -13.076u

ATP Marseille 250, Mens Singles, QF
Ugo Humbert vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Total Games: Over 22.5 Games, 1.892 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Marseille 250, Mens Singles, QF
Hubert Hurkacz vs Tomas Machac
Set Handicap: Hubert Hurkacz -1.5 sets, 2.27 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

24 - 44 - 1, -12.086u

ATP Dallas 250, QF
Mens Singles
Francs Tiafoe vs Marcos Giron
Moneyline: Marcus Giron, 2.25 on Pinnacle
Stake; 1u play

[ChuckyTheGoat]

GL, jeff.

[Jeff_Black]

GL, jeff.

Thanks. Kind of annoyed at myself for not getting on earlier at better odds having this match in mind yesterday so didn’t get the best odds but as they say when you get an easy winner always take it lol.

Will sit out the Mannarino and Duckworth match. Mannarino had a W/O so not sure how this one will pan out but still expect him to win.