2024 Tennis Tour Season Thread, Picks and Discussion

[dhristov211]

The French Open is here. Get back to work.

Just take Tsitsipas and Sinner to win every match until they play each other. And then bet the OVER with the winnings.

[Conqueror]

The French Open is here. Get back to work.

[Conqueror]

Hey!
You need to show up here at least from time to time. We miss you!

[gorwin068]

Poor 5 units... LOST

26 - 46 - 1, -12.476u

ATP Dallas 250, SF
Marcus Giron vs Adrian Mannarino
Moneyiine: Adrian Mannarino, 1.961 on Pinnacle
Stake: 5u

Odds have moved in our favour so this will be a play. Both guys haven’t really faced a stern test so far in this tournament but it’s hard not to ride Mannarino’s form and confidence going in to this matchup. Both guys have served and played very well so far but I can’t help but feel that Girons favouritism is because he’s playing at home, a place where I feel Mannarino plays well here in the US. This surface clearly suits his game. The contrasting difference is that Mannarino has been able to make a step up and win SF matches when presented with the opportunity compared to Giron who has faultered in the past and here so we’ll see who has the stones to hold their nerve when the going gets tight and tough.

[Jeff_Black]

26 - 46 - 1, -12.476u

ATP Dallas 250, SF
Marcus Giron vs Adrian Mannarino
Moneyiine: Adrian Mannarino, 1.961 on Pinnacle
Stake: 5u

Odds have moved in our favour so this will be a play. Both guys haven’t really faced a stern test so far in this tournament but it’s hard not to ride Mannarino’s form and confidence going in to this matchup. Both guys have served and played very well so far but I can’t help but feel that Girons favouritism is because he’s playing at home, a place where I feel Mannarino plays well here in the US. This surface clearly suits his game. The contrasting difference is that Mannarino has been able to make a step up and win SF matches when presented with the opportunity compared to Giron who has faultered in the past and here so we’ll see who has the stones to hold their nerve when the going gets tight and tough.

[Jeff_Black]

A win's a win. You obviously have knowledge about this sport.

It is handy to follow the tour week in and week out and see who plays where. Tiafoe plays next week in Delray Beach. In the past I have been burnt by him not as knowledgeable that he doesn’t give it all in the ‘tune up’ tournament. Sometimes we learn the hard way though.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thanks. Kind of annoyed at myself for not getting on earlier at better odds having this match in mind yesterday so didn’t get the best odds but as they say when you get an easy winner always take it lol.

Will sit out the Mannarino and Duckworth match. Mannarino had a W/O so not sure how this one will pan out but still expect him to win.

A win's a win. You obviously have knowledge about this sport.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Dallas 250, SF
Mens Singles
Ben Shelton vs Tommy Paul
Moneyline: Tommy Paul, 2.08 on Pinnacle
Stake; 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

25 - 44 - 1, -11.556u

ATP Marseille 250, SF
Mens Singles
Hubert Hurkacz vs Ugo Humbert
Set Handicap: Hubert Hurkacz -1.5 sets, 2.56 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Marseille 250, SF
Mens Singles
Grigor Dimitrov vs Karen Khachanov
Set Handicap: Grigor Dimitrov -1.5 sets, 2.45 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

GL, jeff.

Thanks. Kind of annoyed at myself for not getting on earlier at better odds having this match in mind yesterday so didn’t get the best odds but as they say when you get an easy winner always take it lol.

Will sit out the Mannarino and Duckworth match. Mannarino had a W/O so not sure how this one will pan out but still expect him to win.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

GL, jeff.

[Jeff_Black]

24 - 44 - 1, -12.086u

ATP Dallas 250, QF
Mens Singles
Francs Tiafoe vs Marcos Giron
Moneyline: Marcus Giron, 2.25 on Pinnacle
Stake; 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

23 - 43 - 1, -13.076u

ATP Marseille 250, Mens Singles, QF
Ugo Humbert vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Total Games: Over 22.5 Games, 1.892 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Marseille 250, Mens Singles, QF
Hubert Hurkacz vs Tomas Machac
Set Handicap: Hubert Hurkacz -1.5 sets, 2.27 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

23 - 42 - 1, -12.076u

ATP Dallas 250, R2
Mens Singles
Taro Daniel vs Tommy Paul
Moneyline: Taro Daniel, 4.00
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Dallas 250, Men’s Singles
Futures/Outrights: To win the tournament
Adrian Mannarino, 7.25 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

23 - 40 - 1, -10.076u

ATP Cordoba 250, R1
Mens Singles
Facundo Bagnis vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Moneyline: Juan Manuel Cerundolo, 2.12 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Cordoba 250, R1
Mens Singles
Albert Ramos Vinolas vs Pedro Cachin
Handicap: Pedro Cachin -1.0, 1.917 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

That was the key. I never would have guessed he could do it again, but I guess the confidence of doing it so many times makes you believe that you can do it again.

Yeah it’s unheard of in this instance. His matches were roughly averaging 2:20 thereabouts who isn’t too ridiculous considering it’s indoors. But many factors from his previous matches were in play today too.

[Maizey]

He has also been composed needing to come back from a set down in each of his matches so he will be ready for a battle here.

That was the key. I never would have guessed he could do it again, but I guess the confidence of doing it so many times makes you believe that you can do it again.

[Maizey]

I’d agree except for the fatigue factor. Tough to recover after three consecutive 3-set comebacks.

[Jeff_Black]

22 - 40 - 1, -14.926u

ATP Montpellier 250, Final
Mens Singles
Borna Coric vs Alexander Bublik
Moneyline: Alexander Bublik, 1.97 on Pinnacle
Stake: 5u play

Two guys with polarising styles but I personally have Bublik the favoured guy in the matchup and with the odds on offer, it’s a play. Hard to make Coric’s run here and even so his SF opponent who retired hurt, it seemed like he didn’t get a lot out of his serves and forehand for most of what he could play. Bublik has been serving well here getting plenty of aces, incorporating slicing/volleys and mixing it up. He has also been composed needing to come back from a set down in each of his matches so he will be ready for a battle here. FAA wasn’t that even that bad in their SF it’s just Bublik was relentless and the confidence he gets from fighting back also contributes to the style he can play when he’s on song.

[Jeff_Black]

21 - 39 - 1, -12.887u

ATP Montpellier 250, SF
Mens Singles
Felix Auger Aliassime vs Alexander Bublik
Total Games: Over 23.5 Games, 1.961 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Funnily enough, the top four seeds are in the SF for this tournament. All very good indoor hard court players. Coric and Bublik have done well here before. Coric is aiming to reach his first Final since that very impressive Cincinnati Masters title run in 2022. FAA has enlisted to play in Marseille next week but I guess travel and all that isn't really a problem it's just interesting to see where his year will be at after a weirdly bad 2023 which got better as he defended his Basel title.

As for the other events...Dallas. Unsurprisingly the field are all crafty big servers with big power games. Still waiting on Qualifiers for that and the Cordoba field to be determined but as usual the Cordoba field is uninspiring. Might be worth keeping an eye out on the clay rats for early upsets but naked eye test last year it felt like an extremely slow court compared to the other ones in South America.

Oh and Murray is there too, another first round fade on the cards? Possibly!

[Jeff_Black]

Wow, that trio includes guys that are so tough to back. Add Fognini and Kyrgios to that group and you’d have my handful of guys that I almost never bet because they drive me crazy. All of them can tank at moment’s notice.

Yeah some wishful thinking with the odds on hand, probably wont be backing Paire any time soon!

19 - 39 - 1, -15.094u

ATP Montpellier 250, QF
Mens Singles
Alexander Shevchenko vs Alexander Bublik
Total Games: Over 22.5 Games, 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Montpellier 250, QF
Mens Singles
Borna Coric vs Flavio Cobolli
Moneyline: Borna Coric, 1.632 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

[Maizey]

18 - 37 - 1, -13.994u

ATP Montpellier 250, R1
Mens Singles
Flavio Cobolli vs Gael Monfils
Set Handicap: Gael Monfils -1.5 Sets, 2.04 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Montpellier 250, R2
Mens Singles
Benoit Paire vs Harold Mayot
Moneyline: Benoit Paire, 2.50 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Montpellier 250, R2
Mens Singles
Alexander Bublik vs Denis Shapovalov
Moneyline: Alexander Bublik, 1.90 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Wow, that trio includes guys that are so tough to back. Add Fognini and Kyrgios to that group and you’d have my handful of guys that I almost never bet because they drive me crazy. All of them can tank at moment’s notice.

[Jeff_Black]

18 - 37 - 1, -13.994u

ATP Montpellier 250, R1
Mens Singles
Flavio Cobolli vs Gael Monfils
Set Handicap: Gael Monfils -1.5 Sets, 2.04 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Montpellier 250, R2
Mens Singles
Benoit Paire vs Harold Mayot
Moneyline: Benoit Paire, 2.50 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Montpellier 250, R2
Mens Singles
Alexander Bublik vs Denis Shapovalov
Moneyline: Alexander Bublik, 1.90 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Montpellier 250, R1
Mens Singles
Hugo Gaston vs Denis Shapovalov
Moneyline: Hugo Gaston, 2.15 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Montpellier 250, R1
Mens Singles
Maximillian Marterer vs Arthur Cazaux
Set Handicap: Arthur Cazaux -1.5, 2.08 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

Murray looks very close to the finish line. His obvious limp as he left the court says it all. It’s so hard to back Paire when he doesn’t care half the time. I suppose he feels obligated to give effort when he’s on his home soil. He did appear to care today.

For sure, Murray’s body is telling him to quit but he doesn’t want to. I don’t know how many more losses he can take with the way he has been going. Even guys and greats like Federer who had remarkable good fortune with injuries had their bodies catch up with them eventually. He must be getting reasonable appearance fees to play in some of these tournaments, Dubai for example.
Paire nearly blew that multiple times himself, that tiebreaker, gosh…

[Maizey]

Murray looks very close to the finish line. His obvious limp as he left the court says it all.

It’s so hard to back Paire when he doesn’t care half the time. I suppose he feels obligated to give effort when he’s on his home soil. He did appear to care today.

[Jeff_Black]

Also known as Open Sud De France

ATP Montpellier 250, R1
Mens Singles
Michael Mmoh vs Benjamin Bonzi
Moneyline: Benjamin Bonzi, 1.628 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

ATP Montpellier 250, R1
Mens Singles
Harold Mayot vs Lucas Pouille
Moneyline: Lucas Pouille, 2.17 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Montpellier 250, R1
Mens Singles
Andy Murray vs Benoit Paire
Moneyline: Benoit Paire, 3.92 on PinnacleSta
Stake: 1u play

Goodness I'm probably going to regret getting on Paire, but with Murray looking like he's 56 instead of 36 in that loss to Etcheverry it's the first time I've felt the finish line is near for him. Paire has lost 4 matches in a row, all on the Challenger circuit and with their previous matchups being no bearing on their current form, these are the types of matches Paire wins, when no one expects him too. Especially when there is an opportunity in the main draw to get points/prize money.
Murray is also expected to play in Qatar and Dubai in the month of February so interested to see where his level/motives are at. Needs match play to better his level and ranking but at his age and with his issues gee whiz that's still a lot of tournaments.

[Jeff_Black]

16 - 34 - 1, -13.994u

ATP Montpellier 250, Mens Singles
Futures/Outrights: To Win the Tournament
Holger Rune, 3.27 on Pinnacle
Stake: 3u play

The top half of the draw feels pretty soft and a clear path to the Finals. He looked good in Brisbane before falling to Dimitrov and no doubt wants to get his season back on track with a trophy here. Monfils/Coric seem to be his toughest opponents and if he can navigate them he should have a good shot for the trophy. He also showed he was no pushover on indoor hard courts last year in Turin, and has won the Paris Masters 1000 the year before and played well there in previous years. On the bottom half Bublik and FAA seem like tough competitors if he plays them and was half tempted to do Bublik but thought the odds were too short. Realistically Rune is a step above talent wise here and has a pretty open draw on a surface he likes.

[Jeff_Black]

Great bet, that was a crap result

The man himself said it all, gave it everything he had and came up short. Might have been able to be less passive when in front but also without a doubt fatigue kicked in later on as he was a step behind Sinner for a lot of that last said just hanging on. Gave it all he had and left nothing on the court so it's not surprising he isnt as disappointed with that loss.

[dhristov211]

16 - 33 - 1, -10.994u

Australian Open 2000, Final
Mens Singles
Daniil Medvedev vs Janik Sinner
Moneyline: Daniil Medvedev, 3.43 on Pinnacle
Stake: 3u play

Great bet, that was a crap result

[Jeff_Black]

It doesn't matter the sport. Never bet against a team/player that get their desired result. Medvedev's journey up to this point is far from impressive. But he's been grinding out the desired results.

I felt like I did that when I took Medvedev in the SF and Zverev in the QF heh so it has a point.

[Conqueror]

Yeah very curious to see how it pans out. It was either dog or pass for mine

Probably safer plays worth considering but I’ll feel silly if Sinner comfortably wins in three sets lol. Medvedev has been one of the better guys since Wimbledon, but often gets lost in the Alcaraz and Sinner hype and we’ll see how much he’s learnt from the tough losses

It doesn't matter the sport. Never bet against a team/player that get their desired result. Medvedev's journey up to this point is far from impressive. But he's been grinding out the desired results.

[Jeff_Black]

Montpellier ATP 250, also known as Open Sud De France on after the Aus Open. Some good names in that draw, will be following and making plays accordingly on that tournament too.
Find it interesting that Rune has signed up, loves indoors and would be disappointed he bowed out earlier the year before. Sinner went the same path and won that title…obviously he won’t be defending it but might look at an outsider to win the tournament.

[Jeff_Black]

JB
I made this same play but didn't post it.
On paper, Sinner should win this going. But realistically, this was a tourney for either Djokovic or Medvedev.
We'll see how this plays in the end. I actually have Medvedev winning in 4 sets.

Yeah very curious to see how it pans out. It was either dog or pass for mine

Probably safer plays worth considering but I’ll feel silly if Sinner comfortably wins in three sets lol. Medvedev has been one of the better guys since Wimbledon, but often gets lost in the Alcaraz and Sinner hype and we’ll see how much he’s learnt from the tough losses