2024 Tennis Tour Season Thread, Picks and Discussion

[Jeff_Black]

Was thinking about taking Chang today

I was kind of in two worlds about that, like he’s played well and if anyone has followed his past he’s been one of the top juniors and had a good run last year. But gee whiz Tiafoe not being able to break him or win a lot of points on serve was a tough one. When it comes to Rublev he seems to have a knack of winning these small tournaments so ended up leaving it.

likewise with the Brisbane final thought it was too close to call. Have really liked what Dimitrov has done in the tournament and has looked really good. Not sure if I am ready to trust him in best of five set matches with the retirements he’s had in slams in the past but breaking a seven year title drought and some of his results late last year is really positive.

[Jeff_Black]

JB, do you attend any tournaments during the Aussie swing?

AO when I can yes, and the Sydney International when it used to be a 250 event the week before the open always got a good draw too

[Maizey]

JB, do you attend any tournaments during the Aussie swing?

[Chiefs83]

Was thinking about taking Chang today

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Hong Kong 250, Men’s Singles, QF
Andrey Ruble vs Arthur Fils
Total Games: Under 22.5 Games, 2.03 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Andrey Rublev’s first match of 2024 was a statement win, he blasted 32 winners and hit 10 aces. Like a lot of his warm up events in these smaller fields where he is the top seed he does take advantage of it even in an unfamiliar place like Hong Kong, where I think he will continue to grab wins. Fils has had some solid wins to date but I think he’s not as polished as he should be to be a serious threat and I think Rublevs power will be too much for him.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Hong Kong 250, Men’s Singles, QF
Francis Tiafoe vs Juncheng Shang
Moneyline: Juncheng Chang, 3.66 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

10-16-0, -6.867u

ATP Brisbane International, QF
Mens Singles
Rafael Nadal vs Jordan Thompson
Total Games: Under 20.0 Games, 2.11 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Similar to last nights game, and we all saw how relentless Rafa was in that one, I think this one will be as one sided. Jordan Thompson has had a bit more exposure to the tour and less injury prone then Kubler but is also more of an all rounder with no real weapons or threats to make this game against Nadal a serious contest. Having the W/O to me also doesn’t help his case.

[Jeff_Black]

10-15-0, -5.867u

Ruud was really dialled in yet again, didn't learn my lesson from the Griekspoor match and watched his game against Coric and he was solid too. Guess when it comes to beating guys outside the top 20 hes got it in spades.

ATP Brisbane International 250, QF
Mens Singles
Roman Saifullan vs Matteo Arnaldi
Total Games: Over 23.5 Games, 2.09 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Both guys have won a couple of tough matches and seem to have a knack of getting into tiebreaks. I don't expect this match to be any different. Even if either goes down a set they haven't given up, especially Arnaldi who has come out of two very close deciding sets. Safiullan's serve has been on song, serving 23 aces a piece in each of his games. Arnaldi will be a tougher test on the return game so I'm interested to see how he handles a big step up in servers from his previous encounters. On the flip side if Safiullan doesn't get in, or win as many points on first serve I'm interested to see how he handles it. With an open roof and no bad weather expected I'm expecting quicker conditions today which should suit a tight game.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP/WTA United Cup, QF
Mens Singles
Adrian Mannarino vs Casper Ruud
Total Games: Over 23.0 Games, 2.11 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Adrian Mannarino has had somewhat of a resurgence in 2023 and it appears he has continued it into 2024. He was admirable in his match against Zverev going down in three sets and beat the challenging Lorenzo Sonego in two sets. You can almost argue he’s had the tougher run compared to Ruud who’s breezed through two matches against Griekspoor and Coric who didn’t put up much of a fight against him. With Garcia potentially about to wrap up the women’s game as I write this it’s a golden opportunity for Mannarino to win this tie without the mixed doubles. The key will be to maintain winning those second serve points. Something that Zverev was able to pick apart as he clawed his way back into the match. I don’t feel confident that either player will win this in two, and with both guys having a red hot crack at this event it should be a cracker of a game, hopefully with three sets. Buckle up and enjoy it.

[Jeff_Black]

9-14-0, -5.967u

ATP Brisbane International 250, R2
Mens Singles
Rafael Nadal vs Jason Kubler
Total Games: Under 20.0 Games, 2.10 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Very much like the previous game I believe there is too big of a gap in the level of these two guys for me to think Kubler would make a dent in this game. Nadal didn’t miss much of a beat in his win against Thiem and his forehand looked as solid as ever. With what we saw in a sometimes suspicious looking Karatsev retire in their opening round match I can’t see how he can keep up with Nadal who will go for every break and every ball. Admittedly him and Thiem were feeling each other out a bit in their first round encounter and once Nadal was comfortable there was no looking back. If Kubler gets off to a slow start and doesn’t win enough points on second serve Nadal will be ready to pounce.

[Jeff_Black]

8-14-0, -7.037u

ATP Brisbane International, R2
Mens Singles
Daniel Altmaier vs Grigor Dimitrov
Total Games: Under 20.5 Games, 2.07 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Both players had tricky RD1 encounters but Dimitrov’s was against the superior Murray and to be honest, a stern first round test isn’t such a bad idea, he’s carried the end of his 2023 form into 2024 and he will enjoy a looming challenge against Nadal a few rounds later if it comes to that. He seems to feel confident and stronger on the serve he’s finding good pace with his forehand here in Brisbane.
On the flip side Altmaier really struggled to put away a qualifier ranked nearly 200 places below him, needed two tiebreaks and did not find a way to break his serve in the process. Dimitrov in this encounter is obviously a different animal. Outside of clay he really struggled on hard courts going 3-13 and has not beaten a top 20 player. I can’t think of a sole single reason let alone many reasons Altmaier will make this game a challenge today.

[Jeff_Black]

7-14-0, -8.747u

ATP Brisbane International, R2
Mens Singles
Tomas Machac vs Rinky Hijikata
Money line: Rinky Hijikata, 2.71 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Surprising odds considering Rinky’s Australian form winning 15 out of 21 matches in 2023, Kokkinakis didn’t play his best but it was still a good performance from the young Australian. Machac isn’t known for his fitness and conditioning and taking three sets, and nearly letting Etcheverry get back into their first round encounter is a worrying sign. Outside of Australia it would have likely been a pass but with those odds it’s worth a shot on the Australian.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Hong Kong 250, R2
Frances Tiafoe vs Miomir Kecmanovic
Moneyline: Miomir Kecmanovic, 2.07 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Another matchup where I’m hoping to catch Frances off guard. After the US Open he didn’t have the most spectacular of results and went 0-2 in the Asian hardcourt swing experiencing early losses in Shanghai and Tokyo against winnable opponents. Kecmanovic finished with a less then spectacular overall W/L record in 2023 despite a few deep runs and based off his first match against Taro Daniel he looks dialled in to win some matches here. He fired off 24 winners and didn’t do much wrong overall. When he’s confident he’s at his free flowing best and will need to have a good start to follow through with another win in a draw he can make progress in.

[Jeff_Black]

7-12-0, -6.747u

ATP Brisbane International, R2
Holger Rune vs Alexander Shevchenko
Moneyline: Alexander Shevchenko, 3.75 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Another match where I expect Rune to face a challenge, against a guy who has dished out a few upsets in 2023. And a guy who has made a good climb into the rankings to hopefully stay a regular on the tour. He made quick work out of another guy who had a solid juniors career and didn’t look troubled. Rune played his tricky first match against Purcell (and the roaring Australian crowd that always seem to follow it) and being the overall better player and his variety of tricks and shots he was able to navigate through it. He did play under a closed roof for that game (which would have helped him) whilst Shevchenko played under an open roof as is the case again tonight. I am curious to see how Rune handles the outdoor conditions and against a guy who will both be a better server and put more pressure on Rune’s serve which can break down at times when he’s not on. If Rune gets off to a slow start again against this better calibre opponent it could be a long night for him.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Brisbane International, R2
Mens Singles
James Duckworth vs Yannick Hanffman
Moneyline: Yannick Hanffmann, 1.934 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Brisbane International, R2
Mens Singles
Mattel Arnaldi vs Lukas Klein
Moneyline: Lukas Klein, 2.57 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Brisbane International, R2
Mens Singles
Alexei Popyrin vs Roman Safiullan
Moneyline: Over 23.5 Games, 2.02 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

Tailed on Michelson

Let’s hope for a better result for you!

6 - 9 - 0, -4.767u

[Chiefs83]

Tailed on Michelson

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Hong Kong 250, R1
Mens Singles
Fabian Marozsan vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Moneyline: Fabian Marozsan, 2.39 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Gotta admit, Cilic at that price is pretty tempting, Struff got off to a slow start in 2023 and as we have seen there are plenty of favs who get off to a slow start even dropping a set. Cilic played in Chennai quite a bit as a warm up and handled the Asian conditions in January pretty well, funnily enough Struff has struggled during the Asian circuit. Will leave that one aside for a bit and have a think.
Unlikely to touch any other game for the day but will be keeping an eye on Fils and Musetti in those tournaments.

[Jeff_Black]

Looks like the matches pushed back are underway now, hopefully some less rain interruptions for today.

ATP Brisbane International 250, R1
Mens Singles
Alex Michelson vs Ugo Humbert
Moneyline: Alex Michelson, 2.60 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Brisbane International, R1
Mens Singles
Rafael Nadal vs Dominic Thiem
Total Games: Over 22.5 Games, 1.917 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

This game will be on Pat Rafter Arena regardless because its a Night Session and will be played with a roof if it rains for those who don't want to have money tied up.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Brisbane International, R1
Mens Singles
Lukas Klein vs Sebastian Baez
Total Games: Over 22.5 Games, 1.925 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Brisbane International 250, R1
Mens Singles
Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Tomas Machac
Moneyline: Tomas Martin Etcheverry, 3.20 on B365
Stake: 1u play

This one is a bit surprising even though Machac had some really solid Challenger level form notching up wins he’s way too short in this matchup. Was tempted to take an over as both guys like getting into a dogfight but with the odds above 3/1 it’s gotta be a play on a very good player in Etcheverry for mine.

[Jeff_Black]

I don’t think they would have been able to make Shelton too short (yet) otherwise every one would have been on Safiullin. I’m hoping he gets drawn with a veteran like Bautista Agut or something and they give him a very short price. There will definitely be times where he’s over valued and possible at the AO so we will see.

Yeah I was following Zhang last year and the year before. He was holding his own against Djokovic until Djokovic won 10 points in a row or whatever it was to shut out the game. Thought he’d make more of it but really it’s on Djokovic’s racquet if he starts slow or not.

I find it hard to back women’s unless it’s maybe outrights or maybe at the back end of tournaments, esp the big ones. Even watching a bit of that Pegula and Tomjlanovic match I didn’t think Tomjlanovic was too bad, just didn’t capitalise on her chances. Could have just as easily been 2-0 her way.

[Maizey]

Yes, Safiullan is a late bloomer. I don't follow the men's circuit nearly as closely as I follow the women's side, so I didn't really see him until he "arrived". The late bloomers have a lot of value from a betting perspective. Bettors tend to overly discount the possibility of players maturing later, especially with young phenoms like Gauff and Alcaraz emerging so young and climbing so fast. It's certainly more elegant to find the the next young star and ride them on their way up than it is to find the older player that emerges. Z Zhang is another late bloomer that got very little line respect until he kept on winning. I'm not sure he can rise too much further. Safiulllan still looks like he might have some room to run, but it gets tougher the further up you go, so maybe not too much higher. Jarry is of course another late bloomer. He's intriguing to me because his game is so non-South American.

As for fading Shelton at the AO, I'm not sure you'll get great prices. I was a bit surprised at how short Safiulllan was yesterday. I'm not sure if that was respect for Safiulllan or lack of respect for Shelton. Mayeb a bit of both.

[Jeff_Black]

Yeah it's funny, if he manages to get through this match against Murray he has a good Quarter of the draw and with Shelton out that 3rd quarter of the draw opens up a bit. The odds would probably not be worth it after Shelton drops out and there is still the potential of facing Thiem/Nadal with a few matches under their belt. But as we all know Murray wins and loses a lot of matches in the mind too heh.

As for Safiullan, yeah a bit of a late bloomer, big strides in 2023 with a slam QF and an ATP Final. Jarry was cooked from that match and pulled out from his next one as well heh. But 2023 was also the first year (and likely cause of his ranking) he was getting direct entry into these Masters events so we will likely see plenty more from him there.

Lots of underdogs (Murray just then) winning these first sets early, guess its a bit to be expected with these first matches. Rune and Zverev figured things out quickly will be interesting to see how much momentum it creates for an established guy like Murray who wasn't making much headway into Dimitrov's serve, until those errors at 4-5, and vice versa.

[Maizey]

Dimi had quite a resurgence in 2023. I don’t trust him to continue that into the new season, especially against a well rested Murray.

There’s certainly going to be a lot of pressure on Shelton after his run last year. He’s a very streaky player. He can play up and he can play down. Hard to gauge his loss today. Safliullin is a solid player for sure. I think we’ll be hearing a lot more about him this year. I watched him play Jarry in Cincinnati and he was the better player, he just couldn’t win the big points.

[Jeff_Black]

Was tossing up whether to take Murray for the win with the odds on offer at the moment, Probably not the same guy he was during a lot of those h2h matches but I am not sure I trust Dimitrov that heavily favoured either. In a similar way of thinking to the Shelton/Saifullin match I didn't trust either guy to win in straight sets being their first matches of the year like in this situation so we'll see how it plays out.

Shelton will be one of the first guys I fade in the earlier rounds, depending on who he plays in the Australian Open.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Brisbane International, R1
Mens Singles
Grigor Dimitrov vs Andy Murray
Total Games: Over 22 Games, 1.869 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP/WTA United Cup, RR Stage
Mens Singles, USA vs AUS
Alex De Minaur vs Taylor Fritz
Moneyline: Taylor Fritz, 1.675 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

[Jeff_Black]

JF,Nice to have you back!Happy New Year!

Good to see you back. It’s been a long time. Good luck in the upcoming season.

Good to see you guys still kicking too! Happy new year as well!

These rain delays that seem to always come around here this time of the year are fun too for the bettors. But at least it appears there is a roof these days.

[Conqueror]

JF,

Nice to have you back!

Happy New Year!

[Maizey]

Good to see you back. It’s been a long time. Good luck in the upcoming season.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Brisbane International 250, R1
Mens Singles
Ben Shelton vs Roman Safiullan
Total Games: Over 23.5 Games, 2.01 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Chiefs83]

Tailed

[Jeff_Black]

3-4-0, -1.57u

ATP Brisbane International 250, R1
Mens Singles
Matteo Arnaldi vs Marton Fuscovics
Moneyline: Marton Fuscovics, 1.90 on b365
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Brisbane International, 1R
Mens Singles
Alexei Popyrin vs Chris O’Connell
Moneyline: Alexei Popyrin, 1.729 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Brisbane International, 1R
Mens Singles
Luke Van Assche vs Alexei Schvechenko
Moneyline: Luke Van Assche, 2.18 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

2-2-0, -0.3u

ATP/WTA United Cup
Mens Singles RR
Taylor Fritz vs Cameron Norrie
Moneyline: Cameron Norrie, 2.45 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Siding with Norrie again in this matchup, one where both guys will be familiar with each other and being evenly matched. With that said and Fritz playing his first match of the tournament I’ll happily take Norrie again with those odds on offer. He had a few lapses against De Minaur and played some bad points to let him back in the game but comparing strengths and weaknesses in this matchup and their history I’ll take him again.