2024 Tennis Tour Season Thread, Picks and Discussion

[Conqueror]

JB

I made this same play but didn't post it.
On paper, Sinner should win this going. But realistically, this was a tourney for either Djokovic or Medvedev.
We'll see how this plays in the end. I actually have Medvedev winning in 4 sets.

[Jeff_Black]

It could possibly be worth waiting until the last minute before playing this but obviously that doesn't do anyone any service here, and also more importantly for any discussions and thoughts on the game.
So the interesting thing I find is there have been few instances where the guy who has played 10 times has not featured in a Final. It seems the bookies are a bit off when it comes to adjusting their odds. 2022 when Nadal won as a 2.70 underdog, 2017 when Federer won as a 2.10 underdog, and 2014 when Stan won as a 5/1 underdog (possibly more). Federer beat Cilic in 2018 as well in five sets, not sure if he covered? It was close but another opportunity without the big 3 and Murray and the 10x Champ here.
Definitely have these guys closer then the odds indicate. To me previous (perceived) form isn't always the biggest indicator as it has shown in other matches. Experience as we have seen has been a factor, and Medvedev will see this as a huge opportunity being his first final not playing Nadal or Djokovic. Interested to see how Sinner handles things if it doesn't go his way. He's also started solidly. Im also interested to see how he copes when he's not serving as incredibly well like he did against Djokovic. We saw Zverev's dropped off against Medvedev after being near perfect against Alcaraz. We saw Medvedev pick up his serving to be almost unreturnable after being very loose and sloppy in that Semi against Zverev. He will know and have the belief that he can weather the storm if things aren't going his way as he has done in his other five set matches.
Matchup wise I think it plays well into his hands. He can use his pace and speed/positioning to neutralise Sinner's power and is no stranger to shortening points and mixing up his slices like he did against Zverev.
After hurting from that loss in 2022 and even 2019 I think he will be dialled in from the get go and ready for battle.

[Jeff_Black]

16 - 33 - 1, -10.994u

Australian Open 2000, Final
Mens Singles
Daniil Medvedev vs Janik Sinner
Moneyline: Daniil Medvedev, 3.43 on Pinnacle
Stake: 3u play

[slayer14]

medevev is a beast from russia

[slayer14]

Djokovic just lost against Sinner, that is kinda of a shock.

[asiagambler]

Is Medvedev having stamina issues ??

He says after every match he is so tired

I noticed 5th set against Hurk, in-play odds made him a clear underdog when he was clear favourite prematch

[Jeff_Black]

15 - 33 - 1, -14.929u

Australian Open 2000, SF
Men’s Singles
Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev
Moneyline: Daniil Medvedev, 1.787 on Pinnacle
Stake: 5u play

Have had this in mind since the SF matchup was determined and ignoring any potential letdowns after that Alcaraz win or either players form going into the SF they’ve still both earned the right for a chance in the Final Four going into the final. Both these guys have shown on hard courts they can match it with anyone and know each other well enough but I have Medvedev favoured here with the odds being right. Having watched the odds drift I can understand that but Hurkacz has always been a tough and tricky match up for Medvedev. Hes made five finals on the hard court slams with one trophy to show for it and this will be a huge opportunity for him with Novak out of the draw. And even if he had been there with how poorly he played that SF anyone would have fancied their chances

[Jeff_Black]

15 - 32 - 1, -13.929u

Australian Open 2000, SF
Womens Singles
Dayana Yastremska vs Qinwen Zheng
Moneyline: Dayana Yastremska, 2.74 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Feel like there isn't going to be much value backing against Sabalenka with the way she has gone other then laying an egg in that Brisbane Final to Rybakina but she's bought here form here which is what I feel it'd take for anyone left to beat her. That match likely feels like the Final to me and either player will be a step up from the girls these two have played against anyway.

[Jeff_Black]

Spot on with that one. Sasha was clearly the better player and could have won it in straights. I'm surprised he's an underdog to Medvedev, but maybe it's a match-up thing, kind of like it was against Alcaraz where he had the advantage..

I think he legit stunned him with how well he played and how quickly he came out of the blocks, especially on the serve, was almost unreturnable. Would have needed to drop off big time for it to happen. And like you said unlucky not to win in three with some nerves closing off the game possibly. Alcaraz won a few great points in a row to take that tiebreak away but the QF onward is where you want to play your best tennis and Zverev did exactly that. And amazingly so he didn't look phased or drop his level much after losing that tiebreak. Just straight back to business.

Not sure what to make of that SF or the other one but they're Friday so all the guys get that bit of extra rest.

Tough one there -- right side, wrong result. Not often you see 5-1 tiebreaker leads lost on the men's side. Despite being a warrior, Rublev's emotions can always get the best of him.

Yeah we saw that with the De Minaur game, two tiebreaks he was in a very winnable position to win and a few poor errors led to them slipping away. This one he played some great points to take the lead but then Sinner did as well to get back into it. Sinner not dropping a set going into his first Australian Open SF is wild.

[Conqueror]

Epic!

[Maizey]

14 - 32 - 1, -18.039u

Australian Open 2000, QF
Mens Singles
Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev
Moneyline: Alexander Zverev, 5.11 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

These two seem to trade wins at times when you think Alcaraz has the edge, Zverev comes out and wins one, similarly like the French Open in 2022 where he got the better of him. He has the game to be competitive with him and has proven he can beat him (or anyone) when he's on his game. But having yet to see Alcaraz get pushed and flustered I am intrigued whether this step up in opposition will catch him off guard. Kecmanovic did not play poorly at all but was on the wrong end of a let cord that let to a break of serve in that first set and similarly in the second set. By the time it got to a third set and he was already down 0-2 the deuces all became breaks for Alcaraz on his serve. Compared to his brutal five setter and emotionally overwhelming win against Sinner at the US Open that led to a let down spot in their QF at the US Open I do think Zverev is better equipped to handle this matchup this time around after another 4R 5 setter.

Spot on with that one. Sasha was clearly the better player and could have won it in straights. I'm surprised he's an underdog to Medvedev, but maybe it's a match-up thing, kind of like it was against Alcaraz where he had the advantage..

[Maizey]

Australian Open 2000, QF
Mens Singles
Andrey Rublev vs Janik Sinner
Total Games: Over 37.5 Games, 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

Tough one there -- right side, wrong result. Not often you see 5-1 tiebreaker leads lost on the men's side. Despite being a warrior, Rublev's emotions can always get the best of him.

[Jeff_Black]

14 - 32 - 1, -18.039u

Australian Open 2000, QF
Mens Singles
Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev
Moneyline: Alexander Zverev, 5.11 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

These two seem to trade wins at times when you think Alcaraz has the edge, Zverev comes out and wins one, similarly like the French Open in 2022 where he got the better of him. He has the game to be competitive with him and has proven he can beat him (or anyone) when he's on his game. But having yet to see Alcaraz get pushed and flustered I am intrigued whether this step up in opposition will catch him off guard. Kecmanovic did not play poorly at all but was on the wrong end of a let cord that let to a break of serve in that first set and similarly in the second set. By the time it got to a third set and he was already down 0-2 the deuces all became breaks for Alcaraz on his serve. Compared to his brutal five setter and emotionally overwhelming win against Sinner at the US Open that led to a let down spot in their QF at the US Open I do think Zverev is better equipped to handle this matchup this time around after another 4R 5 setter.

[Jeff_Black]

Hey Jeff does herbie or rublev have any chance here to advance? How bout Krejicova?

Haven't been following the womans much. Couldn't even pick the overall winner to tell you the truth. Sabs has a good shot to defend and hasn't looked out of place but Gauff continuing her form since last year and the US Open too.

Rublev...Think he will give this one a good crack. Khachanov wasn't too bad in that R4 game and Rublev is a better player then him this stage minus the SF appearances. Sinner not dropping a set despite nearly losing that 2nd one hasn't had the draw Rublev has these last few matches. Considering how inconsistent he used to be at slams it's unheard of lol. I think waiting this long for the match for Sinner...interesting to see how he reacts to this, Rublev won't mind having played close to midnight (I think?) the extra rest being ready whenever it's time. Slower and cooler conditions feel may help him.
It'll be gunning for a first SF for both guys but Sinner clearly made some big jumps from 12 months ago after that disappointing loss to Tsitsipas. Hopefully a good one.

14 - 31 - 1, -16.039u

Australian Open 2000, QF
Mens Singles
Andrey Rublev vs Janik Sinner
Total Games: Over 37.5 Games, 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

[beefcake]

Hey Jeff does herbie or rublev have any chance here to advance? How bout Krejicova?

[Jeff_Black]

Excellent points.I must say Cazaux ML is tempting.

Yeah there’s something about him isn’t there. Was hoping to get better odds closer to if not 4s but it probably won’t get there.

[Conqueror]

Excellent points.
I must say Cazaux ML is tempting.

[Jeff_Black]

Australian Open 2000, R4
Mens Singles
Miomir Kecmanovic vs Carlos Alcaraz
Handicap: Miomir Kecmanovic +8.5, 1.847 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Kecmanovic is a confidence guy and plays his best when he gets on the front foot but also when he gets out of tight and losable situations, he saved 2 MPs against Tommy Paul and it completely unravelled the American. With full of confidence and having a close encounter in Miami also on hard courts I think he can do what Sonego did in their match, possibly take a set.

Australian Open 2000, R4
Mens Singles
Arthur Cazaux vs Hubert Hurkacz
Total Games: Over 40.0 Games, 1.925 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

The young Frenchman looked superb in his wins against Rune and Griekspoor and I personally think he has a shot in this match as well. Still expect this one to potentially be a longer one with the look of some tiebreaks. Opponents have served well against Hurkacz with his usual poor returning with tiebreaks in every match and this one I feel may be the same. Cazaux has also been serving well and racking up those aces over his last three matches and the little information his opponents have on him I think is a part of that.

Australian Open 2000, R4
Mens Singles
Daniil Medvedev vs Nuno Borges
Total Games: Under 30.5 Games, 1.98 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Borges run has been a good one for some of his career trajectory so far but Medvedev is a different beast in comparison to his previous opponents. The win against Dimitrov was a good one but as it has been in the past these guys don’t often back up those performances. Medvedev did not waste a lot of time winning his match against FAA after a late finish a few nights before and I think this one will be a similar one.

Australian Open 2000, R4
Mens Singles
Alexander Zverev vs Cameron Norrie
Handicap: Alexander Zverev -5.0, 2.03 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

This is Norrie’s first 4R appearance here after navigating an open draw but beating Ruud who he himself isn’t known for doing well in Australia too. He lacks the raw power to compete with a contemporary player such as Zverev but if he can get into that second serve and frustrate him with sporadic injections of pace doing point constructions and rallies he can frustrate the German and it will be an interesting thing to look out for. Personally just have the German being a bad matchup here for Norrie.

[Jeff_Black]

I saw Mannarino play FAA in Cincinnati last year and it was like they were playing a different game. Mannarino's game is from outer space. I have no idea how he can survive against guys that have 10X more margin of error. Seeing it on TV is one thing, but seeing it in person was truly incredible. I would watch him over any player on the tour because of the uniqueness.

I think that’s why he’s just hung around for so long, some say almost Federe-esque with the effortlessness and being a lefty always adds to the tricky news. Shelton said he didn’t mind playing a lefty but Mannarino was likely more prepared for it. Having played more of them. He gave Nadal huge troubles a few years ago here for similar reasons. Just couldn’t keep up physically before falling away. He can handle the faster surfaces as well as when they’re a bit slower but the closed roof clearly benefitted Novak today. Even watching him mix it up the other night to the point Shelton had no idea what to target and force 70+ errors out of him. Looked like it caught up with him just a touch today.

[Jeff_Black]

Djokovic/MannarinoI always respect your take on matches but my fear for the OVER 28.5 games in the above match is that I can easily see Djokovic winning in straight sets with the third set ending in a 6-1 score.

Yep knew it was a mistake taking the over after the first set. Fortunately, you can just watch it without thinking about it having any hope. You always think he may drop off after the third set or with the way Mannarino was looking, just completely negative and maybe retiring. I guess that was always a worry as I mentioned Djokovic showing his true form after a few matches, usually 4R/QF and true to that he was dialled in from the opening point. 6-0 6-0 is even more impressive when you think about his usual dropping off a bit in second sets.
Setting the vibe and saving those break points early also didn’t open any doors for Mannarino to get off to a good start, was having none of that today

[gorwin068]

Alcaraz has been pretty good without any official matches under his belt. Hasn't missed a beat so far. If he makes it past Kecmanovic it could be interesting to play Norrie and Zverev after that, maybe Medvedev after.

12 - 26 - 0, -13.729u

Australian Open 2000, R4
Mens Singles
Novak Djokovic vs Adrian Mannarino
Total Games: Over 28.5 Games, 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Interesting that this is pretty low but with how inconsistent Mannarino can be at times I can understand, plus Novak usually gets better by the second week. Even with that said he just did enough to beat Etcheverry and that match did go overs as well. Mannarino has done a good job playing to the higher levels of his opponents, such as Shelton and guys like Zverev in the United Cup. Had that ordinary loss to Ruud where he ran out of steam. Day match will be interesting too, something Novak hasn't played at in some time, so it will be interesting to see how he adjusts to those hot conditions. Gotta give some respect to Mannarino in this match up coming off a career year, with his almost effortless looking style.

Australian Open 2000, R4
Mens Singles
Janik Sinner vs Karen Khachanov
Handicap: Karen Khachanov +7.0, 1.961 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Sinner, much like Alcaraz has not missed much of a beat so far in this tournament but this will be a tougher test. Khachanov can play and had a solid tournament here in 2023, making a SF with an open Quarter after a shock early exit to defending champion Nadal. His loss to Ruusuvouri in Hong Kong doesn't seem too ordinary after his form here pushing Medvedev to five sets a couple of nights ago. Beat some good opponents along the way, and this year so far is no exception. Sinner has lost 22 games on the way to the third round but has done it a wee bit too easy for my liking. 7 games is a lot to give in this match up.

Australian Open 2000, R4
Mens Singles
Taylor Fritz vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Total Games: Over 42.0 Games, 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Was leaning Fritz overall in this matchup but do think this one can go the distance with tiebreaks in between. Despite all the negativity surrounding Tsitsipas' start, and I guess finish to last season as well he has managed to navigate into a 4R. It's his best tournament so far with 3x SF appearance and a Final last year. Interestingly enough his dip was to another big server in Raonic and I'm curious as to whether that happens this time. But Fritz's form is also not as ideal as he would hope nearly being bounced in the first round. Could be a long one here.


Australian Open 2000, R4
Mens Singles
Andrey Rublev vs Alex De Minaur
Moneyline: Andrey Rublev, 1.735 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Much like Fritz Rublev wasn't too far off an embarrassing first round loss, but has improved each match as he has gone along. It will be a tough one playing an Aussie against the home ground but he makes making that 2nd week of the slams a habit now being in the QF in 5 of his last 7 slams. He's also the better player then De Minaur who I feel has been a bit overhyped in the United Cup. He also only has 1 QF appearance to his name and maybe like Lleyton Hewitt he prioritised too much being really good and peaking early before his disappointing appearances at the AO. He has been consistent being able to make the 3/4R but now its about making the leap and plenty of people have hyped him up in that regard. Not sure hoe he will handle it.
Also that match against Raonic...man got a bit fortunate Raonic's body didn't hold up. Was looking very good and hard to break. Really needed to just move him from side to side but it took him a while to realise that. and wait for some second serves to come in.

such a bad call on Mannarino, he doesn't even know how to take ONE game

[Maizey]

Interesting that this is pretty low but with how inconsistent Mannarino can be at times I can understand, plus Novak usually gets better by the second week. Even with that said he just did enough to beat Etcheverry and that match did go overs as well. Mannarino has done a good job playing to the higher levels of his opponents, such as Shelton and guys like Zverev in the United Cup. Had that ordinary loss to Ruud where he ran out of steam. Day match will be interesting too, something Novak hasn't played at in some time, so it will be interesting to see how he adjusts to those hot conditions. Gotta give some respect to Mannarino in this match up coming off a career year, with his almost effortless looking style.

I saw Mannarino play FAA in Cincinnati last year and it was like they were playing a different game. Mannarino's game is from outer space. I have no idea how he can survive against guys that have 10X more margin of error. Seeing it on TV is one thing, but seeing it in person was truly incredible. I would watch him over any player on the tour because of the uniqueness.

[Conqueror]

Djokovic/Mannarino

I always respect your take on matches but my fear for the OVER 28.5 games in the above match is that I can easily see Djokovic winning in straight sets with the third set ending in a 6-1 score.

[Jeff_Black]

I hope to see you here soon again
Betting on Alcaraz to smash everyone in 1st set during the first 3-4 roundsfirst set -3 at -105 today

Alcaraz has been pretty good without any official matches under his belt. Hasn't missed a beat so far. If he makes it past Kecmanovic it could be interesting to play Norrie and Zverev after that, maybe Medvedev after.

12 - 26 - 0, -13.729u

Australian Open 2000, R4
Mens Singles
Novak Djokovic vs Adrian Mannarino
Total Games: Over 28.5 Games, 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Interesting that this is pretty low but with how inconsistent Mannarino can be at times I can understand, plus Novak usually gets better by the second week. Even with that said he just did enough to beat Etcheverry and that match did go overs as well. Mannarino has done a good job playing to the higher levels of his opponents, such as Shelton and guys like Zverev in the United Cup. Had that ordinary loss to Ruud where he ran out of steam. Day match will be interesting too, something Novak hasn't played at in some time, so it will be interesting to see how he adjusts to those hot conditions. Gotta give some respect to Mannarino in this match up coming off a career year, with his almost effortless looking style.

Australian Open 2000, R4
Mens Singles
Janik Sinner vs Karen Khachanov
Handicap: Karen Khachanov +7.0, 1.961 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Sinner, much like Alcaraz has not missed much of a beat so far in this tournament but this will be a tougher test. Khachanov can play and had a solid tournament here in 2023, making a SF with an open Quarter after a shock early exit to defending champion Nadal. His loss to Ruusuvouri in Hong Kong doesn't seem too ordinary after his form here pushing Medvedev to five sets a couple of nights ago. Beat some good opponents along the way, and this year so far is no exception. Sinner has lost 22 games on the way to the third round but has done it a wee bit too easy for my liking. 7 games is a lot to give in this match up.

Australian Open 2000, R4
Mens Singles
Taylor Fritz vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Total Games: Over 42.0 Games, 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Was leaning Fritz overall in this matchup but do think this one can go the distance with tiebreaks in between. Despite all the negativity surrounding Tsitsipas' start, and I guess finish to last season as well he has managed to navigate into a 4R. It's his best tournament so far with 3x SF appearance and a Final last year. Interestingly enough his dip was to another big server in Raonic and I'm curious as to whether that happens this time. But Fritz's form is also not as ideal as he would hope nearly being bounced in the first round. Could be a long one here.


Australian Open 2000, R4
Mens Singles
Andrey Rublev vs Alex De Minaur
Moneyline: Andrey Rublev, 1.735 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Much like Fritz Rublev wasn't too far off an embarrassing first round loss, but has improved each match as he has gone along. It will be a tough one playing an Aussie against the home ground but he makes making that 2nd week of the slams a habit now being in the QF in 5 of his last 7 slams. He's also the better player then De Minaur who I feel has been a bit overhyped in the United Cup. He also only has 1 QF appearance to his name and maybe like Lleyton Hewitt he prioritised too much being really good and peaking early before his disappointing appearances at the AO. He has been consistent being able to make the 3/4R but now its about making the leap and plenty of people have hyped him up in that regard. Not sure hoe he will handle it.
Also that match against Raonic...man got a bit fortunate Raonic's body didn't hold up. Was looking very good and hard to break. Really needed to just move him from side to side but it took him a while to realise that. and wait for some second serves to come in.

[Vene1616]

I hope to see you here soon again

Betting on Alcaraz to smash everyone in 1st set during the first 3-4 rounds

first set -3 at -105 today

[Jeff_Black]

12 - 23 - 0, -10.729u

The Australian Open (For those not aware) is over three days to avoid congestion that trickles down over the following week due to bad weather (delays), late nights, and heat delays (which feel like less of a thing). Always seems to rain in the slams each year too!

Australian Open 2000, R1
Mens Singles
Fabian Marozsan vs Marin Cilic
Moneyline: Marin Cilic, 2.15 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Marin Cilic's Hong Kong performance didn't feel too bad for a guy who hadn't played on the tour for a lot of 2023. If his brings his A game service to this match he will continue to give himself a good chance to win matches here. With Marozsan's limited experience to best of 5 set matches, this being his third so far I think Australia's heat will bring him different challenges then he was used to in some of the other places he played. Cilic has drawn an ideal first round opponent here in a very winnable position.


Australian Open 2000, R1
Mens Singles
Borna Coric vs Francis Tiafoe
Moneyline: Borna Coric, 2.58 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

This is really interesting oddsmaking to me considering Coric's lack of success in Australia and only making it past the 1st Round twice in several years. Last year he ran into Lehecka who went on a run to the QF in Australia (and who just won the Adelaide int), his win before was against Guido Pella who equally has had a bad run into Australia. A lone fourth round appearance which was stopped by Pouille who he himself went in a SF run (and if it wasnt for that maybe he could have continued it). The year before he ran into John Millman who usually has overachieved in Australia at home (pushing Federer to a fifth set tiebreaker in 2020).
Tiafoe is no different but isn't off to a great start in 2024 either. He's had mixed results here. Plays good tennis in the US himself. I will take the contrarian angle here and see if Coric turns his fortunes around.

Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R1
Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Andrey Rublev
Total Games: Under 29.5 Games, 1.90 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

For a guy that has a 35% win rate on the main tour its remarkable TSW has put himself in a position to be in the main draw of another slam for the first time. The levels of talent and matchplay aren't really a comparison here. If it was on clay it would be a different story (with his notable upset against Medvedev in the FO last year) but outside of clay he's found it very difficult to replicate his success. This is probably a good tune up for Rublev to possibly aim to make his SF in a Slam.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Auckland 250, R1
Mens Singles
Roberto Bautista Agut vs Roberto Carballes Baena
Handicap: Roberto Bautista Agut -5.5, 2.05 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

12-21-0, -8.729u

ATP Auckland 250, R1
Denis Shapovalov vs Sebastian Ofner
Moneyline: Denis Shapovalov, 2.01 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

By a bit of luck, Denis has been invited to play in Auckland. He is already guaranteed a spot on the Aus Open entry list via a protected ranking. Considering he has not played since Wimbledon the odds are reflective of that but since pushing the reset button he has had a chance to rest and fix his ongoing knee issues to the point where he has been practicing pain free, something he claims he was not able to do in tournaments. We all know his talents and his serving. On a day where he is playing regularly the odds would obviously not thus close. But I am happy to take a risk with those odds considering his motivation towards former coach Mikhail Youzhny who’s claimed he wasn’t willing to put in the work to become a top player, something Shapovalov vehemently disagreed with and was borderline offended with considering his lifetime dedication to the sport. A win with a very winnable match would be a good start towards proving that. He is still young, there is still time and in this spot of no expectations it wouldn’t surprise me to see him win a few matches here. Mentally he’s also feeling very refreshed, was able to follow his girlfriends tournaments and even got engaged last year to her. He will be an interesting follow for 2024.

[Jeff_Black]

Makes sense. The one guy I'd worry about is Tommy Paul. I've never seen him take a day off.

Yep he’s had a couple of good results here and any sort of points to collect before defending his 720 SF points at the Australian Open would be nice. He’s on the other side of this draw at least but from memory he would have been one of the equal favs with Jarry. Jordan Thompson played pretty good in Brisbane even against that loss against Dimitrov, who could make a run (I don’t expect him to win a title) some guys just don’t have that in them…or they need a lot of luck with that draw. Had that chance against Griekspoor on grass last year, and didn’t capitalise. Watched a fair bit of that match,just had a mental block.
Korda has had some injuries…not sure if that Brisbane match was a tune up, he was superb here last year and at the Aus Open. Odds were too short for my liking.

[Maizey]

11-18-0, -6.267u

ATP Adelaide 250
Futures/Outrights, To Win the tournament
Thanisi Kokkinakis, 21.91 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

This is a very open field and draw with the top seeds and better players either not really in great form or haven’t had the best exposure to playing in the past. With Kokkinakis we get a guy who has played here plenty of times and played well, being a former semi finalist. His half of the draw doesn’t feature any standout players here and I’m not sure not motivated some of these guys are a week out from the AO. With his sub par R1 showing at Brisbane I feel he would be motivated to get a roll on here as he has done in the past, knowing he may not play at home in Australia for some time. Think at the odds on offer it’s worth a play with how open the field is.

Makes sense. The one guy I'd worry about is Tommy Paul. I've never seen him take a day off.

[Maizey]

AO when I can yes, and the Sydney International when it used to be a 250 event the week before the open always got a good draw too

Nice.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Auckland 250, Men’s Singles, R1
Alex Michelsen vs Nuno Borges
Handicap: Alex Michelsen -3.0, 1.97 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Adelaide 250, R1
Mens Singles
Jack Draper vs Sebastien Baez
Moneyline: Sebastien Baez, 4.78 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

I think Draper is too short in this instance purely as he has suffered through fitness and conditioning issues and missing many months in 2023. On top of that and recent retirements being his first match I’ll take Baez with the match under his belt who did fade away in that loss to Klein but he has shown improvements on hard courts after starting the year with multiple losses.


ATP Adelaide 250, R1
Mens Singles
Alexander Shvechenko vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Moneyline: Alexander Shevchenko 1.769
Stake: 2u play

I will take Shvechenko here after a decent showing in Brisbane against Van Escche and Rune where he was a little loose but still had some quality shot making to nab a set off him. I have Shvechenko a better player than the odds indicate in this match up from what I’ve seen so far in 2024 and will gladly take them in this instance.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Auckland 250, R1
Christopher Eubanks vs Botic Van De Zandschulp
Moneyline: Christopher Eubanks, 2.98 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

With a few good tournaments Eubanks cracked the top 40 in 2023 and I’m sure he will want to start the year off well to collect some valuable points along the way on a surface that suits his game. He notched up some good wins in Qualifiers and R1 beating former Winner Ugo Humbert. I think he will take this matchup and our serve his opponent who isn’t known for starting his seasons off with a bang or known for being a guy on outdoor hard courts. He does his better work on indoor hard courts in comparison and clay. Having the flight from Hong Kong and then to New Zealand and back to Melbourne I feel also doesn’t entirely help his course. With his odds I feel there is some doubt as to whether he can win so will roll with the underdog who has a higher ranking.

[Jeff_Black]

11-18-0, -6.267u

ATP Adelaide 250
Futures/Outrights, To Win the tournament
Thanisi Kokkinakis, 21.91 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

This is a very open field and draw with the top seeds and better players either not really in great form or haven’t had the best exposure to playing in the past. With Kokkinakis we get a guy who has played here plenty of times and played well, being a former semi finalist. His half of the draw doesn’t feature any standout players here and I’m not sure not motivated some of these guys are a week out from the AO. With his sub par R1 showing at Brisbane I feel he would be motivated to get a roll on here as he has done in the past, knowing he may not play at home in Australia for some time. Think at the odds on offer it’s worth a play with how open the field is.