If this tennis bet loses, I'll never post a pick again

[SBR Lou]

Caroline Wozniacki -231
vs Flavia Pennetta

Starts 7:30AM ET, wake up to a winner.

You don't have to think I'm anywhere near a top tennis capper, but if you fade this one, I feel sorry for you.

Will explain the reasoning if there is genuine interest, and not simply negative comments.

[illmatick]

I actually like the play, -231 long gone, see a few places at -300

[Tsoprano]

Gl Lou

[EaglesPhan36]

I prefer less than half the price to take Sanchez over Dulko.

[KingRevolver]

Caroline Wozniacki -231
vs Flavia Pennetta

Starts 7:30AM ET, wake up to a winner.

You don't have to think I'm anywhere near a top tennis capper, but if you fade this one, I feel sorry for you.

Will explain the reasoning if there is genuine interest, and not simply negative comments.

LOL We've all taken note of what you said, Louie!


I will tail you though since you're this confident.

[RogueScholar]

Lou, there's no possible way you can think this is anything remotely like value. Pennetta is precisely the person to knock Wozniacki out of this tournament. She's a player that moves well and executes clean, precise groundstrokes, and will go toe to toe with the Dane in long rallies. Wozniacki's second serve has been super vulnerable all week, and Pennetta will pick it apart, in much the same manner that Dementieva picks apart slower serves on clay.

Wozniacki shouldn't even be here, Maria Kirilenko should've beat her today, but produced her usual choke artistry when the match was on the line. Wozniacki has a tendency to only give partial effort in small tournaments like this, and even at 100% her game is somewhat passive, a quality that leaves her vulnerable to in-game strategists like Pennetta. Pennetta has yet to lose a set in this tournament, and if you look at her clay performance over the past twelve months, all the losses are to aggressive players. Could you imagine a more perfect scenario in which to pick the underdog?

Flavia is gonna move Caroline all over the court, wear her out, and then beat her when she gets tired and her first serve percentage starts to fall. It's that simple, mark my words.

[SBR Lou]

Lou, there's no possible way you can think this is anything remotely like value.

The match is off Caroline's racket like most of her matches are.

Your write up sounds good and all, but incredibly one-sided. I would hope that the tone of this thread would cause you to reconsider.

Anytime an underdog looks too good, they often are. Caroline is head and shoulders the better player, forget the questionmarks about her form or this or that, she's a superior player, athlete, and has a hell of a lot more game.

I'm not joking when I say, if this tennis bet loses, I will not post a tennis play again.

[EaglesPhan36]

You should read your own writing Lou. "She is head and shoulders the better player, forget the questionmarks about her or this or that." I thought your "model" had 9,000 filters, but now you're throwing it out for the she's better in my mind, so she will win? If this is how you're basing your pick, then that's just ridiculous. Rogue provides excellent insight. Let's hear yours on why you believe Wozniacki is the superior pick here or is it "she is head and shoulders the better player."

[SBR Lou]

You should read your own writing Lou. "She is head and shoulders the better player, forget the questionmarks about her or this or that." I thought your "model" had 9,000 filters, but now you're throwing it out for the she's better in my mind, so she will win? If this is how you're basing your pick, then that's just ridiculous. Rogue provides excellent insight. Let's hear yours on why you believe Wozniacki is the superior pick here or is it "she is head and shoulders the better player."

I am all for solid tennis handicapping discussion, but posts such as the one you made are the reason why I do not elaborate beyond a few words.

Regardless, the position remains.

GL either way, but there is only one way to play this one.

Just have the excuses ready after the straight sets mauling.

[InTheHole]

Good Luck Lou...200 for 83...is too much for my blood but I wish you well.

[InTheHole]

Current Lines at BM

TENNIS - WTA MATCHUPS
TENNIS - WTA MATCHUPS - Jul 10
WTA - GDF SUEZ GRAND PRIX - HUNGARY MATCHUPS MUST BE FULLY COMPLETED FOR ACTION
3:00 AM
5001 SHAHAR PEER


-125
5002 ALONA BONDARENKO


-105
4:00 AM
5003 PETRA MARTIC


-170
5004 EDINA GALLOVITS


+140
WTA - COLLECTOR SWEDISH OPEN - BASTAD, SWEDEN MATCHUPS MUST BE FULLY COMPLETED FOR ACTION
4:00 AM
9857 CAROLINE WOZNIACKI


-245
9858 FLAVIA PENNETA


+195
3:00 AM
9859 MARIA JOSE MARTINEZ SANCHEZ


-110
9860 GISELA DULKO


-120

[pimike]

Lou I am with ya pal. Lets cash this puppy

[tacomax]

You should read your own writing Lou. "She is head and shoulders the better player, forget the questionmarks about her or this or that." I thought your "model" had 9,000 filters, but now you're throwing it out for the she's better in my mind, so she will win? If this is how you're basing your pick, then that's just ridiculous. Rogue provides excellent insight. Let's hear yours on why you believe Wozniacki is the superior pick here or is it "she is head and shoulders the better player."

There are strong rumours that Pennetta has got the painters in; also Wozniacki did all her laundry and grocery shopping at the weekend so she is fresh for tomorrow. Sharp money on Wozniacki - my model predicts her at -1850.

[ijustwant2bpaid]

fck it ill tail u out of respect lou, good luck to both of us, i know nothing about tennis but if u are this confident im down, kinda like betting on calvin borels word in the preakness...worked then and i hope it works now...

[RogueScholar]

Your write up sounds good and all, but incredibly one-sided. I would hope that the tone of this thread would cause you to reconsider.

I'm sorry if when I share an opinion I tend to provide the reasons that led me to make the decision instead of those that led me to doubt it. I'm not one of those people that is gonna say "Looks like she's gonna win, but the other girl might win too..."

I had put money down on Pennetta before you shared your pick, and so I attempted to shed some light on the other side. If there are more substantive points to be made in favor of Wozniacki's game, then by all means share them. I thought I did a good job of explaining in a concise manner the reasons why people should play Pennetta if they want to wager on this match.

I don't care about "head and shoulders" comments, it makes this thread sound like a commentary on dandruff (hah-hah). I've laid out some very real considerations on why Caroline is a weak favorite, and betting weak favorites in the WTA is how people go broke. You and I both know that tennis is "what have you done for me lately" and the reason we get to bet on it is because the better player doesn't always win. This is one such instance.

[tacomax]

The match is off Caroline's racket like most of her matches are.

Your write up sounds good and all, but incredibly one-sided. I would hope that the tone of this thread would cause you to reconsider.

Anytime an underdog looks too good, they often are. Caroline is head and shoulders the better player, forget the questionmarks about her form or this or that, she's a superior player, athlete, and has a hell of a lot more game.

I'm not joking when I say, if this tennis bet loses, I will not post a tennis play again.

Good write-up. Not one sided at all.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well I give up Lou. I was just asking for a little insight & I think a lot of people would like to know your thinking when you make your picks. If you're unwilling to do that, then I guess that's that. I think most people would appreciate more than a couple of words on why you like certain selections so much. In my opinion, if you're truly out for healthy tennis discussion, that would be a big plus & I think would help deter some of the the snippy comments that seem to develop in these threads because I think some people take your "short" words as arrogance. Anywho, that's my opinion. Peace out.

[King of Picks]

Hey Lou don't worry about it man! Yea I lost half my account on that match but I have only myself to blame! But I'm not here to complain about it cuz that won't get me anywhere. So with my other half of the account I'm going to follow this pick as well and trust you to cash this chalk

[King of Picks]

Hey TacoMax, your model has her at -1850? Thats insane but how has your model done to date? I'm very interested in this info seeing that the rest of my account is on her. Should i stay up and watch it or go to sleep not worrying about it?

[andywend]

There are 3 sure things in life:

Death, taxes and TacoMax chiming in every thread in this forum looking to cause some trouble.

Lou simply posted a pick on a tennis match and is certainly NOT required to do a full write-up about it.

You can tail his pick, fade it or not bet the match at all.

[tacomax]

Hey TacoMax, your model has her at -1850? Thats insane but how has your model done to date? I'm very interested in this info seeing that the rest of my account is on her. Should i stay up and watch it or go to sleep not worrying about it?

Off to a shaky start but that's purely variance. This part of the year there is more value in the ATP because of the surface changes and womens propensity to lose serve more frequently.

[RogueScholar]

Off to a shaky start but that's purely variance. This part of the year there is more value in the ATP because of the surface changes and womens propensity to lose serve more frequently.

[jjgold]

I hope Lou nails this

These picks generate good discussion

[LT Profits]

OH MY GOD!

http://forum.sbrforum.com/tennis-handicapping/201526-1-tennis-dog-friday-morning-7-30-am-et.html

LOL

Note: This is the first time I have entered this thread, so my play was up before I knew Lou's play.

[tacomax]

There are 3 sure things in life:

Death, taxes and TacoMax chiming in every thread in this forum looking to cause some trouble.

Lou simply posted a pick on a tennis match and is certainly NOT required to do a full write-up about it.

You can tail his pick, fade it or not bet the match at all.

I've got me a stalker!

[raydog]

here is the link to the match...going into the 3rd set

http://www.yoovil.com/wta.html

[raydog]

theres the break you were lookin for lou

[SBR Lou]

theres the break you were lookin for lou

This is where it's important to play the percentages. If anyone is comfortable with Flavia Pennetta in a third set decider, you need head examined.

[SBR Lou]

Another break. Absolutely slapping the shit out of Pennetta in the decider.

[englishmike]

Another break. Absolutely slapping the shit out of Pennetta in the decider.

Lou, it's -231, they're meant to slap the shit out of opponents, let's at leat keep it real.

[SBR Lou]

Lou, it's -231, they're meant to slap the shit out of opponents, let's at leat keep it real.

Hardly, in tennis -231 is nothing.

[englishmike]

Hardly, in tennis -231 is nothing.

Which is precisely why you lose money.

[raydog]

good god i just now realized how much this play moved against you lou. nice win though

[SBR Lou]

Which is precisely why you lose money.

It just sounds unsophisticated to suggest that a -231 is "supposed" to kick the shit out of their opponent. A tennis match, particularly a WTA tennis match, with a 2 to 1 favorite does not contain as much disparity in skill levels as other sports.

So while laying -231 on ping pong might mean you're sitting on someone that's expected to steamroll, in tennis it does not at all, it is more about, "does -231 have value", not "it's -231, so all things equal I "should win"..

Wozniacki rolls to finish match , 63 46 62.

[Matt Rain]

Which is precisely why you lose money.