If this tennis bet loses, I'll never post a pick again

englishmike · 07-10-09, 09:34 AM

Originally posted by CrazyLou

It just sounds unsophisticated to suggest that a -231 is "supposed" to kick the shit out of their opponent. A tennis match, particularly a WTA tennis match, with a 2 to 1 favorite does not contain as much disparity in skill levels as other sports.

So while laying -231 on ping pong might mean you're sitting on someone that's expected to steamroll, in tennis it does not at all, it is more about, "does -231 have value", not "it's -231, so all things equal I "should win"..

Wozniacki rolls to finish match , 63 46 62.

Don't confuse what I say with wishing you bad gambling karma, I like to see people win, including you.

With that said, you're deluded but well done on the win.

durito · 07-10-09, 09:36 AM

Closed at pinnacle -182/167

Matt Rain · 07-10-09, 09:37 AM

ClownyLou is sophisticated.

SBR Lou · 07-10-09, 09:39 AM

Originally posted by durito

Closed at pinnacle -182/167

My EV at close after 1000 picks is what it is, sure this one got away but looking at the scoreline, I don't care.

Good luck.

durito · 07-10-09, 09:39 AM

We both know you aren't up, so why pretend?

And 1,000 is nothing.

SBR Lou · 07-10-09, 09:40 AM

Originally posted by englishmike

Don't confuse what I say with wishing you bad gambling karma, I like to see people win, including you.

With that said, you're deluded but well done on the win.

It's gambling, your view is too black and white. Yes, "favorites should win" as in theory the better player would prevail 1 on 1. The reality of it is, 2 to 1 favorites in WTA (where players statistically lose serve more frequently than in mens tennis), does NOT contain near as much disparity in skill levels than in other sports where it might be realistic to expect favorites to do better.

englishmike · 07-10-09, 09:41 AM

Originally posted by durito

We both know you aren't up, so why pretend?

And 1,000 is nothing.

Why would you bother with the minutae of number of picks when we've seen enough chalky losers to know exactly what the status of Lous tennis capping skills is?

I just feel sorry for the newbs that read this shit and think he knows somehting.

KingRevolver · 07-10-09, 09:45 AM

Louie is a good capper

Don't listen to these jealous people, Lou. Keep doing what you do - not sure why someone would be so bothered with it. If you don't like it - move on.

onthewhat · 07-10-09, 09:47 AM

Originally posted by durito

We both know you aren't up, so why pretend?

And 1,000 is nothing.

Waiting on you to post your plays rather than criticize those that do

wtf · 07-10-09, 09:47 AM

keep posting lou, you take this stuff seriously and obviously a keen follower of the game

xxdjstriderxx · 07-10-09, 09:48 AM

shake it off lou, aint nothin to a boss

englishmike · 07-10-09, 09:53 AM

Originally posted by KingRevolver

Louie is a good capper

Don't listen to these jealous people, Lou. Keep doing what you do - not sure why someone would be so bothered with it. If you don't like it - move on.

This is nothing more than a good summation of your 20 Million posts since you joined a month ago, inaccurate, assinine shit.

KingRevolver · 07-10-09, 09:56 AM

Originally posted by englishmike

This is nothing more than a good summation of your 20 Million posts since you joined a month ago, inaccurate, assinine shit.

I have some interesting video that I think Willie Bee and CrazyLou would love to see. A few others people would love it, too. It's amazing what screen recorders can do.

I took it to show how much of a two-face you truly are, pal.

englishmike · 07-10-09, 09:58 AM

Originally posted by KingRevolver

I have some interesting video that I think Willie Bee and CrazyLou would love to see. A few others people would love it, too. It's amazing what screen recorders can do.

I took it to show how much of a two-face you truly are, pal.

Post whatever you like, make sure you throw everyone under the bus though because he'll read the chat log.

You're worse than pathetic.

wtf · 07-10-09, 10:02 AM

rock and roll kr

KingRevolver · 07-10-09, 10:05 AM

Originally posted by wtf

rock and roll kr

This guy doesn't realize who he's f'ing with

I'm sure he's PMing Willie Bee and CrazyLou right now apologizing in advance and throwing his other buddies under the bus.

Nothing but a two-faced liar.

wtf · 07-10-09, 10:07 AM

kr, we anxiously await your thread

ANXIOUSLY

yisman · 07-10-09, 10:09 AM

Originally posted by CrazyLou

I am all for solid tennis handicapping discussion

Is that why you refuse to engage in it? I think the reason is that you don't know much at all about tennis handicapping.

Just have the excuses ready after the straight sets mauling.

There was a straight sets mauling? Where? I must've missed it.

SBR Lou · 07-10-09, 10:10 AM

Originally posted by yisman

There was a straight sets mauling? Where? I must've missed it.

Keep your head in the sand. Look at the match stats. Okay it went a 3rd set, big deal, what happened in the third set? Pennetta got her ass beaten and broken twice.

King of Picks · 07-10-09, 10:11 AM

Nice pick Lou I kept my faith in you! I will be waiting for your next winner now that I have my full account back

yisman · 07-10-09, 10:12 AM

Originally posted by CrazyLou

It just sounds unsophisticated to suggest that a -231 is "supposed" to kick the shit out of their opponent. A tennis match, particularly a WTA tennis match, with a 2 to 1 favorite does not contain as much disparity in skill levels as other sports.

Then you shouldn't be picking -231 favorites. Ever.

Especially when you're guaranteeing straight sets maulings that never happen.

You were wrong again.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-10-09, 10:14 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

I prefer less than half the price to take Sanchez over Dulko.

Mine won too. Good day for us both Louseph.

yisman · 07-10-09, 10:14 AM

Originally posted by CrazyLou

Keep your head in the sand. Look at the match stats. Okay it went a 3rd set, big deal, what happened in the third set? Pennetta got her ass beaten and broken twice.

Keep my head in the sand? Listen pal, I wasn't the moron who guaranteed a straight sets mauling.

SBR Lou · 07-10-09, 10:15 AM

Originally posted by yisman

Then you shouldn't be picking -231 favorites. Ever.

Especially when you're guaranteeing straight sets maulings that never happen.

You were wrong again.

Okay, I got the final score wrong, but the pick right. That's like saying if someone predicts a 21-0 game in football, and the line is -2, if the team wins by a touchdown it's any less good of a bet.

I didn't post nor bet on a "straight sets outcome", I just said I thought it was likely.

yisman · 07-10-09, 10:20 AM

You said there would be a straight sets mauling. Don't try and twist things now.

There wasn't a straight sets mauling. Ergo, you were wrong.

And if you're betting heavy chalk and your play goes to a final set, that's not what I'd consider a good bet.

I don't lay chalk, but if I did, I'd damn sure only do it when I expected a romp. Too many other factors otherwise.

Shark79 · 07-10-09, 11:28 AM

Good Call Lou ... didnt take the play, my money is on Kohls ... looks good so far.

SBR Lou · 07-10-09, 11:38 AM

Originally posted by yisman

You said there would be a straight sets mauling. Don't try and twist things now.

There wasn't a straight sets mauling. Ergo, you were wrong.

And if you're betting heavy chalk and your play goes to a final set, that's not what I'd consider a good bet.

I don't lay chalk, but if I did, I'd damn sure only do it when I expected a romp. Too many other factors otherwise.

Give it a rest, Wozniacki broke her six times and had 13 break points. It really wasn't all that close.

yisman · 07-10-09, 11:47 AM

You were still wrong.

pimike · 07-10-09, 11:49 AM

Thanks LOU, I nailed it for 5 units.

You were right, now they want to nit pick every word you said. UNREAL.

Fact is RS was WRONG AGAIN with his tennis pick.

VegasDave · 07-10-09, 12:03 PM

I still think you should start using the spreadsheet to track your plays, Lou. Every single one of your threads ends up a he-said/she-said where you argue that you are up and that you beat the closing line more often then not and everyone else argues that that you lose more often then you win and don't beat the closing line.

If you just started tracking your plays regularly you could put all of this to rest. When haters come into your thread saying you are terrible at tennis, you can point to your documented record. If you have a losing record, so be it, over the long run if you are confident in your abilities you will prevail and you will get the last laugh.

Then when you post a tennis pick we can actually talk about the match instead of 90 trite posts about you and a few others saying you are a winner and others saying you are a loser.

yisman · 07-10-09, 12:28 PM

Lou is down a huge amount. I started a thread and posted his tennis picks covering a span of a few weeks.

To sum it up:

He posts only huge chalk plays, and he hits at under a 40% clip.

pimike · 07-10-09, 12:30 PM

Originally posted by yisman

Lou is down a huge amount. I started a thread and posted his tennis picks covering a span of a few weeks.

To sum it up:

He posts only huge chalk plays, and he hits at under a 40% clip.

Yisman, I have hit 80% of his plays. Maybe I have been selective or just not watching all his picks. But he has made me some nice change sir.

yisman · 07-10-09, 01:50 PM

You're obviously not watching all his picks. I have been.

I honestly have no idea how you could possibly be 80% on betting his plays.

SBR Lou · 07-10-09, 01:55 PM

Originally posted by yisman

You're obviously not watching all his picks. I have been.

I honestly have no idea how you could possibly be 80% on betting his plays.

There are also plays that don't get posted, that Mike has seen over the past year.

LT Profits · 07-10-09, 01:58 PM

Nice call Lou. Looking forward to our next head-to-head matchup.