Wimbledon Discussion Thread 2009

[EaglesPhan36]

Draws are out.

MEN & WOMEN

http://www.wimbledon.org/en_GB/scores/draws/ms/index.html

I'll take my first peek at them this afternoon and do my usual gut feeling assessments and then do the actual research before putting up some futures picks that I like.

Add your thoughts and let's get all our tennis guys in here to help us all make some money to close out June!

[EaglesPhan36]

No shock here. Nadal out.

http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/tennis/news/story?id=4272537

Federer futures will probably close in the Nadal French range now at -300.

[EaglesPhan36]

Men's 1st Impressions

Bracket 1
Del Potro takes the top part of the bracket that would have been Nadal's. He's got tests with Hewitt in the 2nd & Tursonov potentially in the 3rd round. 4th would likely be Stepanek. Bottom part of this draw is tricky. Roddick is your seed, but he's got the foot injury from last week and faces Chardy in Round 1 - Whoa! Then he's got Davydenko, Mathieu and Berdych down here also along with young talent in Becker and Dimitrov. Berdych would be the most troublesome I think and he is 3-1 vs. Andy. Tough draw.

Semifinalist: I'd say Roddick if he was 100%, but the draw doesn't help him. Del Potro probably doesn't have the game on grass yet to make the run. Someone like Berdych or Hewitt or one of the young guys could be sneaky here.

Bracket 2
Andy Murray takes the top part of this bracket. He's drawn pretty comfortably. Shouldn't face a big challenge until the 4th round and that would be from the group of Wawrinka, Rochus or Safin. If Safin had his head on straight, I'd say he's the biggest risk among that trio, but he looks completely useless until otherwise proven wrong. Bottom part of the bracket is wide, wide open IMO. Simon and Fernando Gonzalez are the top seeded guys in this part. Simon though has not been strong in 2009. Gonzalez hasn't done much at Wimbledon. That could leave this portion of the bracket to a dark horse like Youzhny. In any case, Andy Murray looks like he has a solid shot to get to the semis from this group.

Semifinalist: Murray

Bracket 3
James Blake up top in another wide open part of the draw for me. He's got Andreev, Haas, Llodra, Ljubicic and Cilic up here. Would not be surprised to see any of those guys get to the quarters. Blake might have his best shot to go deep here, but he's never gone far at Wimbledon either. Down on the bottom portion of the draw, Djokovic is your top seed here. He'll face a test in the 3rd round from someone like Schuettler potentially, but doesn't look to have a ton of trouble down here if he's focused. His bracket to me is fairly easy as well and maybe his best shot to get to a Wimbledon semi. There's "dangers" in veteran players like Schuettler, Haas, Blake, etc. - but all are guys he can and should beat.

Semifinalist: Not sold on Djokovic. For futures purposes, doesn't really matter who gets here IMO as they will lose to Federer.

Bracket 4
Heavyweights here on top. Verdasco and Tsonga. Both have made it to the 4th round at Wimbledon before and their potential clash in that round here would be a fun one to watch. Karlovic/Tsonga in Round 2 could be the ace fest of the tournament. Down bottom, Federer didn't get any favors. Kohlschreiber in Round 2 most likely. Then Feliciano Lopez, Soderling or Muller could wait in the next rounds. Federer's class should show here and allow him to move on, but it won't be easy at times.

Semifinalist: Federer

Think an Andy Murray future looks likely for me. He probably won't beat Roger, but he'll have the best odds of being the guy to go up against him.

[Stacocakes]

Eaglesphan, check out Djo at +1900 and Del Potro at +2500
Great hedging oppurotunity during the semifinals if you do this or you could just let it ride since there is good value.Don't really see good value in Murray at +300 or Fed at -110

Good luck with Wimbledon.Look forward to hearing your plays

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah, I may skip the men's side for futures - not sure. Gonna go dissect the ladies.

[shhhhh22]

I like Sharapova on the ladies side...

[EaglesPhan36]

Women's 1st Impressions

Bracket 1
Safina is the seed in the top part of the bracket. The best thing for her here is that the bracket is chalk full of chokers and non-grass court experienced players. Safina has never gotten past Round 3 here, but this could be her chance or she could crash out in Round 2 against Szavay - watch for that one. Mauresmo back in the day could compete here, now? I don't know, but she could sneak in some rounds depending on what happens. Bottom part of the draw, Kuznetsova is the seed and she's made the QF a couple times here, but she was awful in her only grass match of 2009. The two I think you have to watch down here, Wozniacki & Chakvetadze. Wozniacki really has a shot to make the semis here if she can translate her success in the current week to Wimbledon. Kuznetsova will face a tough 2nd round match against Chakvetadze or Keothavong while Wozniacki could be waiting to pick up the pieces if this bracket loses its top seeds.

Semifinalist: Wozniacki. She disappointed me at the French, but could get her first Slam semi in this one. I don't think Safina will make it and can't pick Kuznetsova after her horrible transition to grass.

Bracket 2
Venus is up to here. Her draw looks pretty nice. She'll get Suarez-Navarro in Round 2 and potentially Stosur or Ivanovic in the 4th. She can beat both on this surface. Down low, Jankovic is the seed. She's not great here though, so I won't be surprised if someone like Radwanska gets through to the QF. I think Venus is the choice here.

Semifinalist: Venus

Bracket 3
Zvonareva up top. Fellow Russian, Dementieva down low. This one is wide open to me. Zvonareva has never done anything at Wimbledon and appeared shaky in her grass court matches in the build-up. Dementieva would be the easy pick, but she's been so shaky on form of late. The rest of the bracket is short on experience outside of someone like Bartoli. Without her retirement in her last tournament, I would say she might be the dark horse to watch here. Now though, she may withdraw or get beat easily. Name to watch here, Yanina Wickmayer. The Belgian is in the Finals of the Netherlands WTA tourney right now and made the QF in Birmingham the week before. If the big names flop here, she just might make a major move.

Semifinialist: I think a surprise pick here unless Dementieva gets her act together. Wickmayer would be my dark horse selection.

Bracket 4
Toughest draw IMO. Azarenka has the top of the draw along with Sharapova which could provide a potentially pleasing 4th round clash. To get there though, Azarenka has to get past Mirza. Sharapova would need to get past Peer or Petrova. Potential upsets abound. Down on the bottom, Serena should walk into the 3rd, but then could face off against Tanasugarn who made the QF last year and is playing well in the lead up here. A focused Serena would be the pick here, but I can see one of the Russians slipping in if Serena gets knocked out.

Semifinalist: Serena. Think she'll be focused after her French Open disappointment and the possibility of an all-Williams final again. If Serena falters early though, this bracket opens up for one of the Russians I think, unless Tanasugarn is the one who KO's Serena, then there's no reason she shouldn't make it.

Venus is only +250, but for me that is a solid price because I would play it as that is your price in a one-on-one setting for the Championship. She'll get an inexperienced or not grass friendly player in the semis, her toughest match likely would come in the Finals.

[EaglesPhan36]

Will stew over the draws more this weekend before making my final futures picks. Talk it up fellas!

[SBR Lou]

I've got two words for you, hombre: Fabrice Santoro.

[EaglesPhan36]

I think I might have an interesting futures pick. I really do think Andy Roddick can make it out of his draw if he is healthy. My book has him at +950. Since I'm hesitant because of the foot injury in his last match, I was thinking about taking A-Rod for the futures and then going on Chardy in the opener just in case where Chardy is currently +835. Figured 1 unit on A-Rod to win the whole thing, half a unit on Chardy in the opener.

Also, just for the sake of talking ... I've been looking at a lot of previews and the Djokovic bracket, almost all the previews I see like Marin Cilic out of there. Cilic does have some grass court skills (4th round last year), but he lost his only 2009 grass court match to Mahut. Just interesting that so many like him in that draw. I still think that part of the draw will yield the suprise semifinalist.

[EaglesPhan36]

Wimbledon Futures
[2 units] Venus Williams +250
As I said before, I consider this future like a bet straight up for the Championship match. This is Venus' favorite tournament and the draw sets up well for her. Hedge opps abound in her draw and possible semis & finals match-ups as well.

[1 unit] Elena Dementieva +1100
This might well be a waste, but the more I look at her draw, the more I think she can get to the semis if she can keep her shit together. She shouldn't have too much trouble until the 4th round assuming she's steady here. Then it's Cibulkova or maybe Wickmayer, both shorter on Slam experience. QF could be Zvonareva and a hedge opportunity. Then the semis might be Serena or a surprise.

[1 unit] Andy Roddick +950
As I outlined above, I think this future presents a whole bevy of hedge opportunities if Roddick isn't fully healthy, although everything about his freak foot injury suggests he is recovered and okay. Still, as I look at his bracket, I like how it breaks for him if he's on his game and if he's not, there will be a big dog that cashes. Chardy in the 1st round is +700 or more. Dimitrov possible in the 2nd would be a bigger dog than that I would assume. 3rd round, Benjamin Becker perhaps. 4th round, Berdych, Davydenko or Mathieu and then the QF might be Del Potro or if he gets eliminated, A-Rod finds an easier path to the semis.

This last one as I look at it and Stacocakes strategy kicked into my brain, made a lot of sense. I don't expect Andy Roddick to win it all, but I do think he sets up nicely for the semis and as I said if not 100%, a big dog will grab him and I'll get a piece of that and make this futures investment back + some.

[Stacocakes]

Love the Roddick play if healthy Eagles. Its only +950 for you?Is that just for his quarter or for the whole tournament?I managed to get him at +3400 for the tourney. It does seem that he has alot of potential "easy" opponents.Just hope his ankle is holding up.Playing three plus hour matches can't be good for it

[TurkzZ]

yh im there with you on Roddik, on grass his serve can be devistating, as for the injury i think he pulled out of Queens to not risk any sort of serious injury so his health should be fine.

Grass can pull up some surprise winners as the rallys dnt last long etc , i have a feeling there could be a surprise winner.

[EaglesPhan36]

Love the Roddick play if healthy Eagles. Its only +950 for you?Is that just for his quarter or for the whole tournament?I managed to get him at +3400 for the tourney. It does seem that he has alot of potential "easy" opponents.Just hope his ankle is holding up.Playing three plus hour matches can't be good for it

Whole thing. I'm at Bookmaker and they don't have the greatest futures prices unfortunately, but gotta go with what is available. I'm definitely going to lay a little on Chardy in the 1st round against him because even when healthy, Chardy potentially is a handful if his serve is steady.

[EaglesPhan36]

DAY 1 (6.22)
Parlay (F.Lopez, Dancevic, Mahut, Wickmayer)
Pays 2.8:1. All have done well on grass in 2009 and have favorable match-ups.

Dancevic -155 (Darcis)
Darcis doesn't have nearly as much experience as his Canadian counter part on this surface and at Wimbledon. Darcis beat some clay court types on grass at the Queen's Club, but Dancevic has been the far more impressive of late. Dancevic rolled to the finals at Eastbourne last week, riding his big serve to dominanting wins until the finals loss to Tursonov. Dancevic has now won a 1st round match at Wimbledon in two straight years, beating "Fat Dave" Nalbandian in straights last year. This will be Darcis' second ever main draw match at Wimbledon, losing to Baghdatis last year in 4 sets. He's pesky enough to take a set here, but so long as Dancevic's serve stays solid and pops some acres, I like him to move on.

[xxxvince]

how abt james blake usa chances vs Andreas Seppi (ITA), upset?

[GatorFan]

I have Dancevic as well. Good luck Eagles!

[EaglesPhan36]

how abt james blake usa chances vs Andreas Seppi (ITA), upset?

I actually think Blake has the draw to make a little bit of a run. Wouldn't trust him at any high price like this though. Seppi is okay on grass, but if you look at all his losses in the past two years on the surface, they all come to big serving types. Blake's never done much at Wimbledon, but he did do well at the Queen's Club tournament this year. If he plays consistent like that with poise, I think he can get to the 4th round and then likely lose to a Haas or Cilic.

[The General]

Thanks for the thoughts once again and best of luck on your wagers.

[EaglesPhan36]

DAY 1 (6.22)
Chan +450 (Bartoli)
One I've been riding the fence on here before I go to sleep, but I just gotta take a shot here. Just .5 of a unit, but if Bartoli is still hurt, she's gonna get beat or retire. At full strength, Bartoli would wax this chick, but she's had just two days to recover from pain in her right leg that she indicated made it difficult to push off for her serve and then as her match with Razzano went on, difficult to move period. She retired just into the 2nd set, I think she dropped it 6-4 and then was down 1-0 in the 2nd when she quit. I'll pay to see if she's healthy.

By the way, if anyone cares - all my wagers for Wimbledon are for one unit unless otherwise noted.

[rumple]

Whats your tennis record these days, you fell apart.

[EaglesPhan36]

Blake is beyond ridiculous. Losing in straights.


I don't know about my record. I'm only tracking baseball on my spreadsheet. You'd have to look at threads. I think for the French, I was a little under .500. Started off horribly, got hot and finished meh.

[MexicanStallion]

Blake is beyond ridiculous. Losing in straights.


I don't know about my record. I'm only tracking baseball on my spreadsheet. You'd have to look at threads. I think for the French, I was a little under .500. Started off horribly, got hot and finished meh.

Blake is a joke. I had no intentions on betting that kind of money, but stupid enough took him in the Tennis Contest.

Good luck with your Wimbledon plays.

[EaglesPhan36]

Lopez is about to blow my parlay shot today. Down 9-8 in the 5th set. Hate losing the 1st part of a parlay and not even having the other matches matter. Ah well.

["Sic"]

Thank you Almagro...Superior serve to Monaco

[EaglesPhan36]

Noticed that scoreline. Tie breaker city. Gotta go start moving shit into my storage unit. Yeee! Should be done with a lot by the time the Dancevic & Chan matches actually start. If I hit the Dancevic one, I'll be satisfied for the day and about on par with what I expected to be.

["Sic"]

Shuettler has no serve...Hes done

[yisman]

A lot of people took Blake and/or Soderling in the contest.

Blake lost in straight sets and Soderling looked shaky in the first two sets. Not a very good performance.

[yisman]

Shuettler has no serve...Hes done

Nah, Schuettler's a battler.

[MexicanStallion]

A lot of people took Blake and/or Soderling in the contest.

Blake lost in straight sets and Soderling looked shaky in the first two sets. Not a very good performance.

I am one of those idiots lol. I knew Blake was like 50/50 shot, but I risked it and blew it. Built a nice early hole for the contest

[yisman]

5-5 in the third set between Schuettler and Malisse. Winner takes a 2-1 lead.

I knew Blake was like 50/50 shot, but I risked it and blew it.

50/50 shot at -494?


Big chalk losers today:

Lopez -600 loses to K.Beck
Blake -600 loses in straight sets to Seppi
A.Beck -700 loses in 4 sets to Granollers

Only a few small upsets on the women's side thus far, including Larcher de Brito coming through for me again.

lines from Bodog

also, one of my big upsets just missed. Bolelli -900 narrowly beat Koellerer in 5 sets.

[EaglesPhan36]

I gotta go with more of my gut picks again. I'm missing out on a lot of potential dog wins. had Craybas, Kubek & Schiavone marked, but not played. All three in line or have won.

[yisman]

Shuettler has no serve...Hes done

Schuettler ripped off three straight sets after you made that post.

Winner in four sets.

[EaglesPhan36]

Looks like Dancevic is gonna go down in straights. No return game at all.

[EaglesPhan36]

Bartoli is apparently fine as she's killing Chan, so a rousing start it looks for me. 0-3 (-3.05).