Stacocakes Wimbledon thread

[Stacocakes]

Only a few short hours away guys.Draws will be available on friday when everyone gets up.Can't wait to see the match ups. Lets make some cash on this tournament like we did on the French Open

[SBR Lou]

Sounds good.

[Stacocakes]

Well we can scratch Nadal, Monfils and Baghdatis off the list of players for this years tournament.
Pretty much paves the way for Federer to win another Wimbledon title

[Stacocakes]

Looking to see if there is any injury information out there but Djokovic at +1900 are you ****ing kidding me? I'm going to look around a bit to see if I can dig up something on Djokovic but if I can't find anything I am putting some money on this line for sure.

[Stacocakes]

First two plays of Wimbledon are future bets:

Djokovic to win at +1900
Del Potro to win at +2500

Two great bets in my opinion. Could even hedge these bets off at the Semis if you wanted. Djokovic would play Fed in the semis and Del Potro would play murray, if everything went as planned. The odds for both of those matches would be well below the outright amounts here so great hedging oppurotunity. Add to the fact that they are such big dogs that if you lose it was worth the risk.Great value

[EaglesPhan36]

I can't see Djokovic being worth it personally. His draw should be one he can get through, but there's also some experience there that could F him. Then if he does, he has to beat Federer to get to the final. Man that is tough. I looked at Del Potro strictly on prices when they came out. Nice price, but the draw & his history here make that a toughie too. Just my initial thoughts.

[SBR Lou]

Looking to see if there is any injury information out there but Djokovic at +1900 are you ****ing kidding me? I'm going to look around a bit to see if I can dig up something on Djokovic but if I can't find anything I am putting some money on this line for sure.

Why bother, guy's a choke artist and might not ever win another Slam as far as I'm concerned. The only time he will win a Slam is if Fed or Nadal are both injured or retired. Murray will win one before Djokovic.

[Stacocakes]

I agree that both Del Potro and Djokovic will probably not win Wimbledon but I am just making the bets because they have good value and good hedge out potential as well.

[Stacocakes]

Added play :

Hear me out here guys there is SOME logic to this play

Jankovic +5500 to win Wimbledon. Can't pass it up

She has never won a major but this line has some value especially for hedging purposes. Her draw consists of Georges, Benesova, Bammer, Radwanska/Li,Williams/ivanovic. She should be able to pass the first three rounds easily. Fourth round will be a bit tougher but should pass that. Will face either Williams or Ivanovic probably and at that point its up in the air but you could hedge out some of the bet here and guarantee a nice profit if you wanted to.Some definate value in this play

[SBR Lou]

I like Ivanovic for at least a SF run, and possibly to win.

[SBR Lou]

I also like a small bet on Fabrice Santoro to hedge safely out of.

[Stacocakes]

Ok here we go.Here are the futures plays for Wimbledon : Djokovic +1900 Del Potro +2500 and +2800 Jankovic +5515 Blake +27,000 HAHA Roddick +3400 James Blake you owe me buddy.Please win Wimbledon for me and then all of the losses that I have incurred while betting you will be forgiven. Blake will face Seppi,Gicquel,Korolev/andreev,Haas/cilic,Djokovic. Call me crazy here but he could go on a run.First three rounds his opponents are all very beatable. Haas or Cilic might give him some problems but IF Blake gets to that point you could bet money on Blakes opponent for every match from that point on and you will be guaranteed to make money every match. +27,000 !!!!!! Roddick has some injury concerns so it probably wasn't that great of an idea to bet him in this situation. Decent odds though on him.If Healthy you are looking at a possible draw of Chardy,Kunitsyn,Melzer, Davy/Berdych and Del Potro which is a beatable draw if healthy.+3400 is worth the risk Good luck guys.First round a couple days away.Lets make some cash

[EaglesPhan36]

I like Ivanovic for at least a SF run, and possibly to win.

[Stacocakes]

Ok guys I have been going through the mens bracket so I am adding some more outright bets:

Tsonga +4000 Tsonga looks to have an easy road up until the fourth round.In that round he will be playing Verdasco. Tsonga has to beat golubev,bolelli and possibly karlovic.I don't see any of those players beating him. When it gets to the verdasco match I guess anything can happen so I will see how it goes from there. Very good value on him though at +4000

Verdasco +11000 looks like a great play as well. He just has to beat James ward, Vliegen, and possibly canas to get to the tsonga match. Fairly easy first three rounds for Verdasco. WOrth a go at +11000

[EaglesPhan36]

Okay, I'm confused with your strategy here. Why would you take Verdasco and Tsonga in the same part of the draw? That's an automatic one loss out of your initial investment.

[Stacocakes]

Oh geez I just made a big post on here to explain what I was doing but I got some vbulletin error. My god. Worst part is it didn't let me repost what I had written.I will try to do a coles notes of it again for you guys.
All of the players that I picked outright have very manageable matches.IF everything went as planned I would have 5 of the 8 quarter finalists.At that point of the tournament if I had two players playing eachother in the quarter finals I could take the winner of that and hedge my bet by betting his semi final opponent to guarantee some money.If my player won the semi final match I would be able to hedge in the finals by betting the opposing player and again guaranteeing a profit. With players like Blake who has huge odds, the hedging of his matches can be done even sooner. This is where live betting is great.If Blake is having trouble in any of his matches I have the ability to either back out of the bet by betting on the player that is beating him to get my money back for the outright or I could let the match be and take the small loss on the outright bet. Having huge odds like blakes of +27,000 leaves me the possibility to hedge out the bet even sooner in the tournament if I wanted to.
The first and second rounds always have huge favorites and are usually unbettable so this is a way to have action on particular matches without betting on them.

[Stacocakes]

I will show you an example:
Both Del Potro and Roddick are in the same bracket. I have them both at +3400 and +2800. Whoever wins this match in the quater finals will leave me with either a bet of +3400 or +2800 for the semi finals. They would PROBABLY be playing Murray at this point and an amount can be put on murray here to guarantee some money. If Murray wins then you win the money on the murray match and lose your outright bet.If my player wins against Murray then my player would be going to the finals and I would be able to bet an amount on Federer to recover my losses on Murray and to account for my loss on my player in the final and to make some additional profit on top of that so no matter who wins the final I win some money in the end.
Thats a best case scenario.There are always bumps along the way so this type of hedging can be done earlier in the tournament with the right players. James Blake won't win Wimbledon but his outright odds are so high that you can start hedging his matches in the second or third round if you wanted and guarantee yourself a profit in the end.
I personally don't think that any of the players I picked will win Wimbledon but the odds that I have the players at give me a huge oppurotunity to hedge and guarantee some money. Just think, if Federer or Murray have to retire due to injury or one of them just gets upset, the outright odds on these players I have picked will dip so low.Would be amazing to see.

[Netprofit]

I think Tsonga is great value:
- he will beat verdasco to the QF;
- he has a shot at Federer at QF;
- if he wins, i think he will win the SF only to meet Murray in the Final.

Please, forget about Blake, he is a loser his whole career and it won't change.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

I'd forget about Verdasco - he seems to be going backwards fast. Last year he actually came into Wimbledon with some grass court form, doing well at Nottingham (lost to Karlovic in the final, which was played indoors on a crazy fast court). This year he's looked like an utter fool in his matches at Halle and Ordina. Frustrating because he can actually play really terrific stuff on grass, as he showed at Wimbledon last year. Starting to appear as if his Aus Open success was a one hit wonder, and he'll drift out of the top10 soon.

Roddick looks like he's got a good shot at the semis. He has:

Chardy (off form, poss still shoulder injury bothering him),
Dimitrov/kunitsyn (18yr old, or wildly off form grass mug)
Becker/Melzer
R16: Berdy/Mathieu
qf: Hewitt/stepanek/ferrer/del Potro (not convinced by del potro on low-bouncing surfaces)
semi: Murray


Tsonga is interesting too, cos ....

Golubev (grass mug)
Bolelli (ditto)
Dancevic/karlovic/darcis (muppet/useless in slams/muppet)
r16: Verdasco (form going the wrong way)
qf: Fed


I'm not convinced Fed is the shoe-in a lot think either. He got a dream draw at Roland Garros and Madrid, and was really pushed by haas and acasuso at the former. Most importantly, he's showing a real weakness in his return game lately, and was often unable to get anything off the big serves of Haas and Del Potro.

If Fed were to bomb out, and I think that's a real possibility if Tsonga caught fire this tournament, then he would have Djokovic in the semi, another guy Tsonga has a great record against on fast surfaces (and who is off form as well).

[Stacocakes]

Fed really wasn't that great in the French Open but still found a way to win. I don't see Murray winning Wimbledon this year. Its to much pressure for him having the crowd on his back. He has a very easy draw which has kendrick,Gulbis,Dent, Wawrinka and gonzalez before the semi finals.He will probably beat all of those but against Del Potro or Roddick in the semi's I am not to sure. I think that Murray will lose at some point in this tournament but its dificult to pinpoint which part of the draw. I don't really like to bet on Murray because if he gets down and starts to sulk like he did at the start of his career he is beatable.
As far as verdasco he has a very good draw up until the quarterfinals. He plays James Ward,Vliegen/mahut, and then canas which are all beatable players. At this point he plays Tsonga and will probably lose but to have the possibility of a +11000 player in the quarter finals is very intriguing.
James Blake will lose at some point I agree.I believe though that he has a "chance" to win 3 or 4 matches here though.He plays Seppi,Gicque,andreev and then Haas or Cilic. The latter two might give him trouble but I think that if his matches are followed inplay you could back out if he is having any problems or just let it ride. The odds are to good to pass up. Plus, since his odds are so high you could probably start hedging out your bet in the first or second round because the farthest he could possibly get is the quarters and no further.

[EaglesPhan36]

Thanks for the explanation. Interesting way to play. Not my style, but I look forward to seeing how it works!

[Stacocakes]

A couple things I have been thinking about for the first round action:

Stepanek is supposedly injured and was seriously in doubt to play in wimbledon yet he is -311 over Falla in his first round match. Could this be another one of those matches where a player shows up, collects his cash and bows out with an injury after the first set?Quite possibly......

Safin -241 vs Levine. Safin should be able to beat this player in his sleep but we all know that Safin is capable of playing worse then an old lady on occassion

Ljubicic +127 over Querrey looks nice but Ljubicic just recently pulled out of a match so probably won't take this.
Dancevic -142 over Darcis. Dancevic playing well coming into this match. Odds are low so this might be worth taking a look at.

Need to think about some of these matches some more tonight.I haven't seen much that is really jumping out at me yet as opposed to those future plays that I have already made

[Stacocakes]

ok one final futures play before wimbledon starts. Hear me out on this one: Berdych +27100 I put a small amount on this for shits and giggles. Berdych is 23-9 in his career on grass. He had strong showings in both 2006 and 2007 wimbledons, losing to Federer and Nadal so can't really fault him in either.Yes I know this is not 2006 or 2007 and he only made it to the third round last year but he is a player that can play very well on this surface.He has always had a great game its just that he has absolutely nothing in his head which explains his collapses.First round he faces Bogdanovic who he should easily beat.He is a -500 something favorite against him. IN this second round he will likely play Paul Henri Mathieu who is another mental midget. Pretty much a toss up that match but Berdych should still be favored and should win.The key to this bet is the third round match. If things go as planned he will face Davy who has completely owned Berdych in there career.I think Davy is like 9-0 against Berdych or something horrible like that.Davy is very poor on grass though and has a career record under .500 on the surface.I am hoping that he can get knocked out in one of the first two rounds to either Evans or Crivoi/Phau. Chances of him losing either of those two matches is probably slim to none.If there has ever been such thing as a player being "due" it would be Berdych beating Davy. Would like to takes my chances. At odds of +27100 why not. Ok I lied I am going to add one more and this is the last one for sure Gonzalez +19000 His record on grass in his career is not that bad at 16-9. He has a softy in round one in Gabashvili. In the second round he will probably face Mayer and he should win that match as well.The third round is where it gets a bit scary. He will face either Youzhny ( 3-1 gonzo though most matches are long ago) and Juan Carlos Ferrero (3-3 with JCF winning the last two though most matches were long ago).If Gonzalez can get through the third round he will face Simon probably and should be able to beat him which would set up a quarter final showdown with Murray which means hedge city.Based on the odds I think I am probably going to start hedging this bet after the second round when he faces either Youzhny or JCF. Gonzo will be the favorite in the match no matter who he plays so it will be good to start the hedging off with a dog bet. The Verdasco, Blake, Jankovic,Berdych and Gonzalez outrights are all just a sprinkle. I'm not putting big money on any of these players.Just trying to make things interesting should something crazy happen in the draw. All it would take is one of my nine outrights to hit or to even make it to the semi finals and I have recouped everything and made a profit.The more I can get advancing the merrier.

[Stacocakes]

Going to have to play it by ear round to round but what I would ideally like to do is ride out tsonga and verdasco until they meet in the fourth round. Take the winner of that and have them play Fed. May just let that bet ride and take the loss but hoping that DJO makes it to the semis against Federer where I am going to hedge out part of that bet to guarantee a profit. If Fed wins he is on to the finals where I am hoping he plays either Roddick/ Del POtro or Gonzalez. Can hedge out that finals bet as well to guarantee a profit.Going to ride out the other players and if they are in trouble in a match in the early rounds just live bet the opponent and get the money back for the outright that I am going to lose in the match. SHouldn't have to bet that much to do it.All of this above is what happens in a perfect world. Who knows what will happen come monday. Could be another huge upset like Nadal at the French Open.Wow that would be nice.

[Stacocakes]

By the way for future reference I would recommend sprinkling like this for all your outright bets and not varying the bet size. I put more money on my outright bets for Djo, Del Potro,Roddick and Tsonga since I felt that those had a better chance then the others.Looking back at that now I am wishing that I just put a little bit for all of the futures that I have made because its easier to back out of the bets if you have only 20 bucks or so on a particular future.You won't win as much in the end but you won't lose that much either

[Stacocakes]

Opening day plays :

Dancevic -143 He has been in good form coming in plus I saw that Eaglasphan liked him as well so I will put a bit on Dancevic. I can't see much else worth betting on the board for opening day. Lines are to pumped up.

Underdog bet of the day :

Small sprinkle on Goodall +546 over Llodra. Goodall is up 1-0 on the head to head though the match was a couple years ago. Looking for Goodall to feed off the home crowd and possibly score an upset here. Llodra should never be a -640 favorite not even against me. Going to sprinkle a bit on Goodall at +546

Best of luck tomorrow guys.Remember if you are awake and watching the matches come into the SBR chat and talk about the matches. Lets make some cash

[Stacocakes]

Added play :

Schnyder +130 over Sugiyama.I have no idea why schnyder is the dog here.She has beaten Wozniak, Petrova, Jankovi and Serena all recently.Sugiyama has lost 6 matches in a row.Sugiyama is 3-1 head to head vs schnyder in there career but obviously schnyder is in better form coming into this match. She is the play

[EaglesPhan36]

I f-ing hate Patty Schynder, I've been sucked into plays on her before like this. Only time to take her is as an underdog. As a favorite, she will flat out rape your bankroll more often than not. I think the reasoning for her being the dog is mostly based on past Wimbledon success for Sugiyama and relatively none for Schynder. 6 trips to Wimbledon for Schynder, 3 ended in the 1st round. Sugiyama also has 6 Wimbledons to her credit, 5 of 6 have gotten her to at least the 3rd round. Patty's another one of those players who doesn't bother playing any grass court besides Wimbledon. Just to point out also that Sugiyama usually doesn't do crap in the grass court tourneys she plays before Wimbledon, but seems to adapt quickly after that. Food for thought. Good luck with your selection!

[Stacocakes]

Schnyder always sucks me in because I have a thing for her. She should leave that loser husband and come over my way.
Shes a dog in this match so I will give it a shot. If she was a -200 fav I would stay away.

Best of luck Eagles.I like your dancevic pick i'm on it to

[Stacocakes]

Unbelievable.There goes the first future I had and of course its Blake as always. Loses in straight sets as a -500 favorite to Seppi.What makes it even worse, Blake is up 5-0 in the tiebreak and he blows it and loses the tiebreak.How is that possible? Blake is done. Glad I only had 15 bucks on the future on him haha.They could have given me +100000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000 odds and it wouldn't even have mattered

[Netprofit]

I think Tsonga is great value:
- he will beat verdasco to the QF;
- he has a shot at Federer at QF;
- if he wins, i think he will win the SF only to meet Murray in the Final.

Please, forget about Blake, he is a loser his whole career and it won't change.

Leading 5-0 in tie -break and lose, does he STILL NEED TO PROVE THAT HE IS A LOSER?!?

[Stacocakes]

I know Blake is a lifelong loser. Figured with the odds he was at it would be fun for shits and giggles since his draw looked not to bad. Doesn't matter now though since he lost the first round as a -500 fav.Sad performance. Don't know how he lost that tiebreak being up 5-0
Tsonga looking good.Good start for him
Djokovic loses the first set in a tiebreak geez. Hopefully he regroups in the second set

[EaglesPhan36]

Djokovic is noticeably frustrated already. He can't return Benneteau's serve for anything.

[Stacocakes]

Djokovic is running around like he has never played on grass before.Like he is not sure how to move around the court.At least he won the tiebreak though but this can't be good for his chances of getting really far in the tournament
No real upsets or anything unless you consider Blake losing an upset.Lopez was a -300 favorite and he lost but he's not that great anyways
If you have any online feeds try to find the Schuettler/Malisse match.Both guys are horrible but Schuettler is losing it after alot of points.Has already hit a ball into the stands

[Stacocakes]

bah a so so day at wimbledon today. Goodall is tied one set a piece with Llodra which is great for a +546 dog.Hopefully he can finish that off and get me back some lost units. Both Dancevic and Schnyder lost without much of a challenge at all. Thanks for coming out you two. Guess when a line looks to good to be true it is.
Blake was the only outright bet that lost for me today.Djokovic, Tsonga, Verdasco are all advancing to the next round which is good.
Going to look at day 2 lines later on tonight.If there is anything you guys like let me know. Need to make some smarter bets after losing two bets today on total stiffs, oh ya make that three stiffs with Blake.Lets win some money tomorrow