Because there are a lot of threads sharing tips but not as much discussion (sometimes it happens during Masters/Slams) I want to know what kind of strategies people implement whether it's one or several, and how much shift that changes each week/month/tournament:
- Do you use it sparingly, or do you use it blindly?
- Do you go off form or does home court factor in more?
- Do you go for value (live with the lesser record) or do you play it safe?
- Do you base things more off stats or do you go off a hunch because you've watched a lot of games that week?
- Do you go off reputation? good or bad
- How much does surface (good or bad) factor in to it.
- Do you focus on taking pluses or go for the chalk favs
- Do you try to find good overs matches where both players will win a set
In the past I've stuck to certain things. But realised sometimes you have to change things.
For example when the slams rolled around I used to have a look at the board and look at the biggest underdog lines. Usually these would be +7 or higher. Look at the guy who was favoured, ask myself why and if I wasn't confident in the favourite I would have no issue putting a little less thought in the dog then I usually would.
For example fading a guy like Stan Wawrinka when he would get -7 or -8 in the first 1-3 rounds depending on the opponent was a favourite of mine.
An example of a blind fade that I should have done: One year I remember Benoit Paire played someone in Australia (can't remember who) he was given -8 in the first round, and probably 8-1 or 9-1 ML. Didn't know much about the other guy so didn't play it. Paire was probably seeded as well and so not manys surprise he loses in three sets. Of course not on it at the time but I just had to laugh about it because I've done the blind fade before.
(to the above one I did) It was Paris Masters (JC knows this one cause we talked about it at the time). He was playing a Frenchman at the time (more well known but not really an ATP level player) called Pierre Hughes Herbert. It was the first round. Hughes was about 3.50 or there abouts and probably +4. Very inexperienced on the tour. So I thought why not (his record in Paris was not great) and thought the younger guy would make a match from it. Of course Hughes wins it 6-2 6-2. Betfair and tennis insight were raging. Probably a lot of 5 digit wagers on Paire and he does that (I imagine many other people have stories like this)
- Do you use it sparingly, or do you use it blindly?
- Do you go off form or does home court factor in more?
- Do you go for value (live with the lesser record) or do you play it safe?
- Do you base things more off stats or do you go off a hunch because you've watched a lot of games that week?
- Do you go off reputation? good or bad
- How much does surface (good or bad) factor in to it.
- Do you focus on taking pluses or go for the chalk favs
- Do you try to find good overs matches where both players will win a set
In the past I've stuck to certain things. But realised sometimes you have to change things.
For example when the slams rolled around I used to have a look at the board and look at the biggest underdog lines. Usually these would be +7 or higher. Look at the guy who was favoured, ask myself why and if I wasn't confident in the favourite I would have no issue putting a little less thought in the dog then I usually would.
For example fading a guy like Stan Wawrinka when he would get -7 or -8 in the first 1-3 rounds depending on the opponent was a favourite of mine.
An example of a blind fade that I should have done: One year I remember Benoit Paire played someone in Australia (can't remember who) he was given -8 in the first round, and probably 8-1 or 9-1 ML. Didn't know much about the other guy so didn't play it. Paire was probably seeded as well and so not manys surprise he loses in three sets. Of course not on it at the time but I just had to laugh about it because I've done the blind fade before.
(to the above one I did) It was Paris Masters (JC knows this one cause we talked about it at the time). He was playing a Frenchman at the time (more well known but not really an ATP level player) called Pierre Hughes Herbert. It was the first round. Hughes was about 3.50 or there abouts and probably +4. Very inexperienced on the tour. So I thought why not (his record in Paris was not great) and thought the younger guy would make a match from it. Of course Hughes wins it 6-2 6-2. Betfair and tennis insight were raging. Probably a lot of 5 digit wagers on Paire and he does that (I imagine many other people have stories like this)