It's just that aura about him isn't it? It just amazes me year after year. Even sometimes against the guys who he battles it out against who have toured in their time with him. Just incredible and in awe to watch regardless of how arrogant one thinks he is. And he's doing it 36. Sure he will lose the odd match from time to time, and there will probably be a day when he does hang it up, but it'll be a sad day regardless.
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Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R16
Dominic Thiem vs Tennus Sandgren
Handicap: Tennys Sandgren +7 @ 1.98 on Pinnacle
Stake: $450 to profit $441
The odds are way too low in my eyes for Thiem to be that short especially on a hardcourt surface where he is vulnerable. And where he has already played a few 5 set matches against less then spectacualr opponents. Sandgren loves the hardcourts and it's his first big shot at a major where I can feel like he can do some damage in this part of the draw. Interested to see where his level is at and while it's really tempting to take extra juice with the set handicap or even the moneyline I'm just gonna take advantage of his good form and hope he can put on a show for a 4th round match. Where Thiem has fallen the past two years.Comment -
Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R16
Novak Djokovic vs Hyeon Chung
Set Handicap: Novak Djokovic -2.5 Sets @ 2.60 on Pinnacle
Stake: $300 to profit $480
Chung had an encouraging win over Zverev but despite some physical issues against Ramos Vinolas Djokovic will be a whole different opponent with the way he has been playing. Despite a few shaky service games. With that in mind (like the Berdych match) ill take the extra juice on the odds for a Set Handicap. There is a highly likely chance he covers the line anyway if he wins in 3 so with that in mind we'll go for it.
So with that in mind i'll point out some encouraging stats for the Novak backers and fans. He's won 57% of his baseline points, and put in 80% of opponents first serves. On his own side he's averaging 63% of first serves which is about right. Slightly higher then the tournament average. And his numbers in variance with shot amounts are also pretty good all in the plus.
While Chung did make some great shots against Zverev, the shots that he couldn't get to, Novak can, and will return it harder just like he does when he returns serve. Zverev targetted Chungs weaker backhand at extended times and I think Djokovic's team will make note of that during this match. He'll force him into rallies he doesn't want to get in to and send a barrage of shots down Chungs weaker backhand side. Lookins for Novak to again preserve himself for the later rounds in the preferred conditions.Comment -
This Tennys fella is pretty damn good. I mostly only know him by name.
But Thiem, wow, serving rockets, hitting everything with everything.... I can't believe Royal Tennenbaum can even get them back.
I just hit Halep for a nice $500+ win, set spread and ML. All these guys on the one thread saying how they couldn't wait to fade her after the marathon.... I LOVE betting against the public perception.
I think I may fire some on Djoker here, not sure I can lay the sets, I get too scared, but maybe a big ML play. No way he loses in my opinion. Cheers, Jeff!Comment -
I didn't really like any of these guys as a dog except for Sandgren, so can live with my decisions even if they don't cover. Federer blew break points in both the first sets, despite serving first. Some even at 15-40, gotta live with it sometimes. He breaks early maybe its a more slowful, painful death of the wager not getting up.
The line/total was bang on and sometimes the bookies get it perfect, unfortunately on the wrong side of it that time.Comment -
Djoker laying an egg early, Looks like the Monfils game all over again, oh well.Comment -
Set Handicap: Tomas Berdych -2.5 Sets on Pinnacle - (+$500)
Total Score: Under 28 games @ 2.01 on Pinnacle (-$250)
Handicap: Tennys Sandgren +7 @ 1.98 on Pinnacle - (+$441)
Set Handicap: Novak Djokovic -2.5 Sets (-$300)
YTD: 47 - 59 - 4 (+$101.32)Comment -
Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, QF
Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyle Edmund
Total games: Under 38 Games @ 2.00 on Pinnacle
Stake: $250 to profit $250Comment -
Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, QF
Marin Cilic vs Rafael Nadal
Handicap: Rafael Nadal -5.5 @ 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: $350 to profit $333.50
Feels weird changing my mind but think Nadal gets it done. Had his kind of tough match against Diego so he will be more ready for this one. Hate that I've backflipped but Cilic doesn't play the bigger guys well especially at the slams. So will be annoyed if my original thought gets up but will live with it.Comment -
Total games: Under 38 Games @ 2.00 on Pinnacle ($0)
Handicap: Rafael Nadal -5.5 @ 1.952 on Pinnacle ($0)
YTD: 47 - 59 - 6 (+$101.32)
Bizzaro dayComment -
Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, QF
Tennys Sandgren vs Hyeon Chung
Handicap: Tennys Sandgren +6 @ 1.862 on Pinnacle
Stake: $550 to profit $474.10
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Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, QF
Roger Federer vs Tomas Berdych
Set Handicap: Roger Federer -2.5 Sets @ 2.23 on Pinnacle
Stake: $750 to profit $922.50Comment -
Handicap: Tennys Sandgren +6 @ 1.862 on Pinnacle
Set Handicap: Roger Federer -2.5 Sets @ 2.23 on Pinnacle - (+$922.50)
YTD: 48 - 59 - 7 (+$1023.82)
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big bet, great hit. happy for you.Comment -
Could have ended badly too! Just like the ones that were pushes.Comment -
That first set might have given you heart attack
but the 2nd and 3rd is piece of cake
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Yeah the value was easily with Federer there.
If someone tells me I can get better odds with Federer not dropping a set then Berdych winning a set I'll take Federer any day.
Of course it's a different story if the odds were reversed. Which is why I got on the better odds.
Easier to say now, but Even just blindly betting that market alone, and even just blindly betting whenever it's the Aus Open you are up already.
Federer's higher Winner/UE count and ratio says it all really. Berdych isn't going to beat him just by hanging in the rallies. The only time he seems to resemble having a chance is an off day from Federer and a high quality serving one two punch from Berdych.
Otherwise he can forget about winning a set let alone winning. And last night was the perfect example of that.
Did think Berdych played better this time personally, but again refer to all of the above lol.Comment -
Australian Open 2000, Womens Singles, SF
Caroline Wozniacki vs Elise Mertens
Handicap: Caroline Wozniacki -3.5 @ 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: $250 to profit $227.25
Wozniacki as a favourite should be a recipe for disaster right? Or maybe she actually has turned it around. She played one of the best sets of tennis I've ever seen her play in her QF despite how badly CSN played and then managed to continue that despite dropping the second set. Hoping she has one more good game in her, but I guess she is the #2 seed and won the World Tour Finals so it's been coming.
But it would be such a WTA/Wozniacki thing to lay an egg here.Comment -
Australian Open 2000, Womens Singles, SF
Angelique Kerber vs Simona Halep
Handicap: Angelique Kerber -1.5 @ 1.961 on Pinnacle
Stake: $450 to profit $432.45
She looks on a mission here. Has been embarrasing since she became a World No #1 and taking full advantage of an open draw though Halep is still here. But as much as I enjoy rooting for Halep at any time she always seems to just fall short mentally when it matters deep in draws. It's unfortunate because she has been a child prodigy even though her boob job reduction made big headlines at the time. But Kerber destroying Keys amongst other players made me notice. Cancelling out both their 'average' games these guys will be prepared for one another and know what they're up against. No excuses.Comment -
^Should add a disclaimer that I'm no where near good or as familiar with women's tennis as men's and only doing these because it's deeper in the slams, less games and there is more data to go by.
Hell I didn't realise until a few days ago Wozniacki was #2 LOLComment -
come on Wozniacki...serving out the match 30-0 and then lost 4 points in a row...just her first broken service game of the match damn
worst game for her at such moment...jesus
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Nice wrote-ups. On the fence as both ladies in scintillating form. Halep usually struggles against cafty players so it helps that Svitolina is out. Huge Halep fan so I'll just enjoy the show...Comment -
luckily Wozniacki saved 2 set points and won the tie break...everything could happen if having final set
Good call Wozniacki 6-3 7-6. I am gonna tail on Kerber as well, I think her consistency in this tournament will be a critical key in this match. But I will bet on the moneyline directly instead in case of any 6-0 or 6-1 set which is often seen in WTAComment -
Just as long as you read the disclaimer first
But the end of that second set is kinda why there's no way i'd do it all the time. But good for those that can find value.
Yeah i'll be happy if Halep wins and it's rare to see these chalky plays get up. But man Kerber has impressed me too. Went from beating Serena in a final to an embarrasment and back to that form again. Wozniacki coughed up a set against CSN but just had too much power for her. I don't feel she will beat either one of these girls in the final though.
Hoping for a similar -3.5 for Kerber if they do play but I imagine itll be -4. Maybe the over if it is good. We'll seeComment -
Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, SF
Marin Cilic vs Kyle Edmund
Total Games: Over 39.5 Games @ 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: $350 to profit $326.9
Been tossing up who to take and decided this will be better. Would suck to see one guy win in three with the great value on it but it's the SF and you have to respect both guys for getting here. Both guys have strong serves and strong forehands being able to dictate points with it and neither guy should be pushed over heavily. Noticed a lot of books offering 38.5 at lesser odds but the sacrifice in odds is too much for me to consider it considering it is only one game. Hopefully a 4 or 5 set slog for those of us who want to see Federer in the final :PComment -
fxxk sake Kerber 0-5 down already in 1st set...throwing with a blinkComment -
Geez, if Halep holds it's 6 - 0.Comment -
Can't imagine how people can cap 100s of womens games each year. I actually only started tuning in the game Halep got broken and Kerber has looked good in these two games. So was thinking she was injured or something.Comment -
Perhaps the motivation is also an important key here, Halep is hoping for another slam final to win her first slam(she should have a high chance against Wozniacki) , Kerber has already won her first one here at AU Open...
I should have thought about the motivation before betting it...
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Yeah this could be over quickly. Some may say offering more then +100 for the World No #1 is also a good value. But this is womens rankings I guess.
Anyway from what I have seen Halep has won like one or two points serving out for the set twice. Although felt more that she waited for Kerber to make errors. Disappointing that Kerber did not let her opponent try and serve it out but at least it'll be an interesting second set until the next time Halep breaks first heh.Comment -
If Kerber can figure out why she can't hit a down the line shot over the net we may just have a game on our hands.Comment -
Halep is carrying a knock, so she has to win in two; @least to give her knee a chance to heal. Which is why didn't bet against Pliskova & Kerber as they should've been able to exploit...Comment -
Gotta give it to Halep, she's literally not making a lot of errors and making Kerber go for her shots and earn her pointsComment -
This should be over, Kerber is just waiting to lose now...
looks like she is injured or something...her serve is too weakComment -
Halep better win it all now. Wozniacki has too many lapses. Can't have another French Open finalComment